The Pittsburgh Pirates return home to PNC Park for their August 18 matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays, hoping to play spoiler down the stretch as their own playoff aspirations have faded in the face of an inconsistent and underwhelming 2025 campaign. With a record hovering near 55–69, the Pirates continue to display flashes of promise from their young core, but overall have been unable to string together enough quality wins to remain competitive in the NL Central. Offensively, the Pirates rely heavily on Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz to generate production, and both have shown the ability to carry the team for stretches—Reynolds with his consistent contact and Cruz with his raw power and athleticism. Jack Suwinski and Ke’Bryan Hayes have also chipped in, but the team’s inability to manufacture runs consistently, especially with runners in scoring position, remains a glaring weakness. Despite occasional offensive outbursts, Pittsburgh ranks near the bottom of the league in team batting average and slugging percentage, and they’ve especially struggled against high-end pitching, which Toronto possesses in spades. The pitching staff, too, has had its ups and downs, with 23-year-old Jared Jones flashing ace-level stuff at times but also battling growing pains as he learns to navigate MLB lineups. Mitch Keller remains the anchor of the rotation and may draw the start in this matchup—he’s had a solid season with a sub-4.00 ERA and excellent strikeout numbers but has lacked consistent run support.

The bullpen has been problematic, with blown saves and control issues continuing to plague late-inning efforts; closer David Bednar has not replicated his All-Star form from 2023–24, and setup roles have been a revolving door. Defensively, the Pirates have been middle-of-the-pack, capable of sparkling plays but also guilty of costly mental lapses and poor fundamentals at times. At PNC Park, the Pirates have not enjoyed much of a home-field advantage, posting a losing record and failing to cover the run line in the majority of their home contests. One bright spot has been their aggressiveness on the bases—Cruz, Suwinski, and Ji Hwan Bae have all added pressure with their speed—but these moments have often gone to waste without timely hits to follow them up. Manager Derek Shelton remains committed to player development over immediate results, and this game will serve as another test for how his young club handles playoff-caliber opponents. From a betting standpoint, the Pirates are one of the least profitable home teams in baseball against the spread, and their struggles against AL opponents—particularly those with elite pitching depth—make them a risky bet in this matchup. However, they’re also the kind of team that can jump on early mistakes and ride the momentum of a big inning if things break right. For Pittsburgh to pull off the upset, they’ll need a standout performance from their starter, airtight defense, and a rare offensive surge. With the season slipping away, every game offers a chance for young players to prove themselves, and that developmental urgency might be their biggest intangible asset as they face a formidable Blue Jays squad.