Phillies vs. Nationals
Prediction, Odds & Props
Aug 17 | MLB AI Picks

Updated: 2025-08-15T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Philadelphia Phillies (approx. 69‑52) enter Game 1 of their series against the Washington Nationals on August 17 looking to reinforce their position atop the NL East, while the Nationals (approx. 44‑66) aim to find a spark amid a challenging rebuild season. With momentum clearly in Philly’s favor and the Nationals struggling both on the field and in key statistical areas, this matchup leans heavily toward the visitors.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Aug 17, 2025

Start Time: 11:35 AM EST​

Venue: Nationals Park​

Nationals Record: (50-73)

Phillies Record: (70-53)

OPENING ODDS

PHI Moneyline: -173

WAS Moneyline: +145

PHI Spread: -1.5

WAS Spread: +1.5

Over/Under: 9.5

PHI
Betting Trends

  • Philadelphia has shown solid value against the spread with a strong 68–42 ATS record, highlighting their ability to not only win but cover expectations frequently.

WAS
Betting Trends

  • Washington has struggled both at the plate and on the mound, leading to a poor overall season record and a likely negative ATS trend at home. Exact home ATS figures aren’t readily available, but their overall performance suggests limited betting value in their favor.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Given the Phillies’ dominance in both form and betting value—paired with the Nationals’ vulnerability—sanity points toward backing Phillies ML or Phillies –1.5 on the run line for bettors comfortable anticipating a comfortable win but wary of extreme blowouts.

PHI vs. WAS
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: R. Adams over 3.5 Fantasy Score.

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Philadelphia vs Washington Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 8/17/25

The August 17, 2025 matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park represents a significant disparity in team trajectories as the regular season begins to wind down. The Phillies enter the contest atop the NL East with an approximate record of 69–52, flexing their postseason aspirations through a deep, powerful lineup and a revitalized bullpen led by the recently acquired flamethrower Jhoan Durán. Their August has been especially dominant, going 8–2 over their last 10 games and showcasing a well-rounded arsenal from both the rotation and the bullpen. The Nationals, on the other hand, find themselves in the depths of a rebuild with a 44–66 mark, struggling mightily in nearly every phase of the game. Offensively, they’ve failed to generate consistent run support, and their pitching staff remains among the league’s least effective, ranking near the bottom in ERA and WHIP. The Nationals’ home field has provided little advantage, with a home record hovering around 21–35 and minimal ability to cover the run line against more polished opponents. This game heavily favors Philadelphia not only in the standings but also in momentum, depth, and performance trends. Kyle Schwarber’s torrid power stretch—now north of 40 home runs—has given the Phillies a reliable slugger capable of altering any game in a single swing, and Bryson Stott continues to be one of the more underrated contributors in the infield.

On the pitching side, the Phillies’ ability to mix in strong starting performances and now a legitimate late-inning weapon in Durán gives them multiple paths to victory. For the Nationals, it’s an opportunity to test their young core—CJ Abrams, James Wood, and others—against a true contender, though they’ll need far more than development flashes to keep pace with a team that has been winning games by an average margin of over three runs in August. The betting trends only reinforce what the eye test suggests: Philadelphia’s 68–42 ATS record makes them one of the best covering teams in the majors, while the Nationals’ inconsistency has made them a poor play both straight-up and against the spread. With no major injuries reported and a clear weather forecast expected for D.C., all signs point toward a clear Phillies edge in every department. Whether it’s power at the plate, rotation strength, bullpen dominance, or simply winning culture, the Phillies should comfortably control this contest. Unless the Nationals can generate some surprising early offense and avoid bullpen blowups—two things that have rarely happened this season—it’s hard to envision a path where they outlast one of the NL’s premier rosters. Expect Philadelphia to apply pressure early and cruise through the late innings, making this a potentially lopsided affair in their favor.

Philadelphia Phillies MLB Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies come into this August 17 matchup against the Washington Nationals playing some of their best baseball of the 2025 season, sitting firmly in playoff position with a strong 69–52 record and a recent 8–2 stretch that has put them among the National League’s most dangerous clubs. Fueled by a roster loaded with veteran sluggers and dynamic pitching, Philadelphia has turned the second half into a statement campaign, dominating opponents not just in the win column but also at the betting window—where they’ve covered the run line in 10 of their last 12 games. The offensive engine remains centered on Kyle Schwarber, whose 40+ home runs have created a consistent threat to break open games, while Bryce Harper’s presence continues to anchor the middle of the order even as he battles through minor nicks and fatigue. Add to that Bryson Stott’s continued growth as a reliable everyday contributor and J.T. Realmuto’s stability behind the plate, and the Phillies have a lineup that can produce runs through power, situational hitting, and speed. On the mound, Philadelphia’s recent acquisition of closer Jhoan Durán has added another layer to an already capable bullpen that includes José Alvarado and Seranthony Domínguez, giving them the firepower to shut the door late.

The rotation has also found balance, with Ranger Suárez delivering consistent quality starts and Zack Wheeler providing leadership and ace-caliber production at the top. Against a struggling Nationals lineup, the Phillies have ample opportunity to be aggressive early, force the issue with their hitters, and turn the game over to their high-leverage arms with a lead. They’ve handled teams below .500 with confidence all year, especially on the road, where their approach has been focused and composed. With the Braves starting to tighten the NL East race, every game becomes vital for the Phillies, who are not only chasing postseason positioning but also looking to fine-tune their form heading into September. Their dominance against Washington this year has been particularly lopsided, as they’ve averaged over six runs per game in head-to-head matchups while outscoring the Nats by wide margins. There’s little reason to believe the formula changes in this game, especially considering the stark contrast in talent and experience. The Phillies know how to exploit a young, rebuilding team like Washington, and with the offense clicking and the bullpen sharp, expect them to attack early, push the tempo, and finish strong as they continue their surge toward October baseball. The away side enters this matchup as a clear favorite, and with every aspect of their game in sync, Philadelphia will be looking to capitalize on another favorable matchup and add another win to an already strong second-half surge.

The Philadelphia Phillies (approx. 69‑52) enter Game 1 of their series against the Washington Nationals on August 17 looking to reinforce their position atop the NL East, while the Nationals (approx. 44‑66) aim to find a spark amid a challenging rebuild season. With momentum clearly in Philly’s favor and the Nationals struggling both on the field and in key statistical areas, this matchup leans heavily toward the visitors. Philadelphia vs Washington AI Prediction: Free MLB Betting Insights for Aug 17. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Washington Nationals MLB Preview

The Washington Nationals enter their August 17, 2025 matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies looking for answers in what has been another long and arduous rebuilding season. Sitting at approximately 44–76, the Nationals are firmly out of the playoff picture and continue to grapple with the growing pains of a young, evolving roster. Despite the lack of immediate success, there are flashes of promise in the everyday lineup—CJ Abrams has been a bright spot, showcasing improved plate discipline and speed on the bases, while rookie James Wood is beginning to find his rhythm at the plate with a growing number of extra-base hits. However, inconsistency has plagued the offense as a whole, ranking among the league’s bottom five in runs scored, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage, which has made it difficult to compete against the deeper, more veteran-heavy rosters like Philadelphia’s. At home, the Nationals have struggled mightily to leverage any sort of advantage, carrying a dismal 21–35 home record into this series and often being unable to contain visiting offenses, especially late in games where the bullpen tends to falter. Pitching has been the team’s Achilles’ heel all season; the rotation lacks a true ace, and the bullpen ranks near the bottom in WHIP and ERA, with late-inning meltdowns becoming a familiar sight for fans at Nationals Park. The Nationals have rarely covered the run line when playing at home against winning teams, and with the Phillies being one of the hottest clubs in baseball, the betting odds are once again stacked against them.

That said, the Nationals have occasionally played spoiler—especially when their young players catch fire simultaneously—and the coaching staff has continued to emphasize effort, hustle, and player development over results. This game presents another opportunity for prospects like Brady House and Dylan Crews to gain exposure to elite-level competition and for the front office to assess where adjustments are needed heading into the offseason. Defensively, the Nationals have made strides in reducing errors and improving positioning, but lapses still occur at inopportune moments, especially against teams that apply consistent offensive pressure. Manager Dave Martinez has stayed positive, focusing on small victories within games, such as competitive at-bats, improved command from younger pitchers, and smarter base running. But facing a powerhouse like the Phillies, who boast one of the deepest lineups and most complete bullpens in the National League, means Washington will need near-perfect execution just to keep the game close. The likelihood is that the Nationals will rely on a patchwork pitching effort to try and survive early innings while hoping for a few timely hits to keep things competitive. While moral victories have become the theme of the season, the Nationals remain committed to the long game, and every matchup—especially against contenders like Philadelphia—is part of the learning curve. Though their odds are long, games like these serve as valuable benchmarks for a team trying to build something meaningful for 2026 and beyond.

Philadelphia vs. Washington Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of stats on each player. In fact, anytime the Phillies and Nationals play there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at Nationals Park in Aug seemingly never follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: R. Adams over 3.5 Fantasy Score.

Philadelphia vs. Washington Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over tons of data from every angle between the Phillies and Nationals and using recursive machine learning and cutting-edge AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.

Remi has been most fixated on the linear correlation of emphasis human bettors often put on Philadelphia’s strength factors between a Phillies team going up against a possibly strong Nationals team. Trends look to say the true game analytics appear to reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line in particular.

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Below is our current AI Philadelphia vs Washington picks, computer picks Phillies vs Nationals, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
MLB 9/26 DET@BOS UNLOCK THIS PICK 5 EXECUTIVE Locked EXECUTIVE
MLB 9/26 BAL@NYY UNLOCK THIS PICK 4 INTEL Locked INTEL
MLB 9/26 ARI@SD UNLOCK THIS PICK 4 EXECUTIVE Locked EXECUTIVE
MLB 9/26 NYM@MIA UNLOCK THIS PICK 1 INTEL Locked INTEL
MLB 9/26 NYM@MIA GET FREE PICK NOW 1
MLB 9/26 COL@SF UNLOCK THIS PICK 0 INTEL Locked INTEL

These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full MLB schedule.

Phillies Betting Trends

Philadelphia has shown solid value against the spread with a strong 68–42 ATS record, highlighting their ability to not only win but cover expectations frequently.

Nationals Betting Trends

Washington has struggled both at the plate and on the mound, leading to a poor overall season record and a likely negative ATS trend at home. Exact home ATS figures aren’t readily available, but their overall performance suggests limited betting value in their favor.

Phillies vs. Nationals Matchup Trends

Given the Phillies’ dominance in both form and betting value—paired with the Nationals’ vulnerability—sanity points toward backing Phillies ML or Phillies –1.5 on the run line for bettors comfortable anticipating a comfortable win but wary of extreme blowouts.

Philadelphia vs. Washington Game Info

Philadelphia vs Washington starts on August 17, 2025 at 11:35 AM EST.

Spread: Washington +1.5
Moneyline: Philadelphia -173, Washington +145
Over/Under: 9.5

Philadelphia: (70-53)  |  Washington: (50-73)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: R. Adams over 3.5 Fantasy Score.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

Given the Phillies’ dominance in both form and betting value—paired with the Nationals’ vulnerability—sanity points toward backing Phillies ML or Phillies –1.5 on the run line for bettors comfortable anticipating a comfortable win but wary of extreme blowouts.

PHI trend: Philadelphia has shown solid value against the spread with a strong 68–42 ATS record, highlighting their ability to not only win but cover expectations frequently.

WAS trend: Washington has struggled both at the plate and on the mound, leading to a poor overall season record and a likely negative ATS trend at home. Exact home ATS figures aren’t readily available, but their overall performance suggests limited betting value in their favor.

See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Philadelphia vs. Washington Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of data on each player. In fact, anytime the Philadelphia vs Washington trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme travel distance can often follow normal, predictable betting trends.

Philadelphia vs Washington Opening Odds

PHI Moneyline: -173
WAS Moneyline: +145
PHI Spread: -1.5
WAS Spread: +1.5
Over/Under: 9.5

Philadelphia vs Washington Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Sep 27, 2025 1:06PM EDT
Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
9/27/25 1:06PM
Orioles
Yankees
+194
-235
+1.5 (-105)
-1.5 (-114)
O 8.5 (-122)
U 8.5 (+100)
Sep 27, 2025 2:21PM EDT
St Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
9/27/25 2:21PM
Cardinals
Cubs
 
-168
 
-1.5 (+118)
O 9 (-122)
U 9 (+100)
Sep 27, 2025 3:09PM EDT
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
9/27/25 3:09PM
Rays
Blue Jays
+132
-156
+1.5 (-154)
-1.5 (+128)
O 8.5 (-106)
U 8.5 (-114)
Sep 27, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Chicago White Sox
Washington Nationals
9/27/25 4:06PM
White Sox
Nationals
+102
-120
-1.5 (+162)
+1.5 (-196)
O 8.5 (-110)
U 8.5 (-110)
Sep 27, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
9/27/25 4:06PM
Rockies
Giants
+198
-240
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
O 8 (-108)
U 8 (-112)
Sep 27, 2025 4:11PM EDT
New York Mets
Miami Marlins
9/27/25 4:11PM
Mets
Marlins
-124
+106
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-156)
O 8.5 (-112)
U 8.5 (-108)
Sep 27, 2025 6:05PM EDT
Minnesota Twins
Philadelphia Phillies
9/27/25 6:05PM
Twins
Phillies
+177
-197
+1.5 (-118)
-1.5 (-102)
O 8.5 (-118)
U 8.5 (-102)
Sep 27, 2025 7:11PM EDT
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
9/27/25 7:11PM
Reds
Brewers
+128
-152
+1.5 (-178)
-1.5 (+146)
O 7.5 (-120)
U 7.5 (-102)
Sep 27, 2025 7:15PM EDT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Atlanta Braves
9/27/25 7:15PM
Pirates
Braves
+143
-158
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+130)
O 8.5 (+100)
U 8.5 (-120)
Sep 27, 2025 7:16PM EDT
Texas Rangers
Cleveland Guardians
9/27/25 7:16PM
Rangers
Guardians
+132
-156
+1.5 (-172)
-1.5 (+142)
O 7 (-120)
U 7 (-102)
Sep 27, 2025 8:40PM EDT
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
9/27/25 8:40PM
Diamondbacks
Padres
+120
-132
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+157)
O 7.5 (-115)
U 7.5 (-105)
Sep 27, 2025 9:41PM EDT
Los Angeles Dodgers
Seattle Mariners
9/27/25 9:41PM
Dodgers
Mariners
+102
-120
+1.5 (-215)
-1.5 (+180)
O 7.5 (-110)
U 7.5 (-110)
Sep 27, 2025 10:05PM EDT
Kansas City Royals
Oakland Athletics
9/27/25 10:05PM
Royals
Athletics
+104
-115
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+161)
O 10 (-110)
U 10 (-110)

MLB Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals on August 17, 2025 at Nationals Park.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
NYM@CHC NYM -110 54.1% 3 WIN
HOU@ATH ATH +118 50.8% 4 WIN
NYM@CHC OVER 7 54.5% 3 WIN
STL@SF OVER 7.5 55.9% 5 LOSS
KC@LAA TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@SD UNDER 9 54.7% 4 WIN
MIA@PHI KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 53.3% 3 WIN
WAS@NYM OVER 8.5 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAA@COL COL +108 50.5% 3 WIN
TOR@KC UNDER 9 54.7% 4 LOSS
SEA@KC KC +1.5 62.3% 5 LOSS
NYY@MIN OVER 9 55.1% 4 WIN
MIA@COL OVER 10.5 55.0% 4 WIN
MIA@COL AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.3% 4 WIN
SEA@KC BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES 54.4% 4 LOSS
PHI@LAD LAD -113 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYY@BOS OVER 7.5 54.3% 3 WIN
KC@PHI PHI -130 58.3% 4 WIN
LAD@SF OVER 7.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYM@PHI PHI -122 55.6% 4 WIN
KC@CLE KC -104 52.0% 3 WIN
CIN@SD JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS 53.1% 3 WIN
WAS@MIA MIA -123 55.2% 4 LOSS
LAA@KC UNDER 9.5 54.9% 3 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9 54.2% 4 WIN
SF@COL UNDER 11.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
SF@COL RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES 56.1% 6 WIN
MIA@WAS WAS -110 54.4% 4 WIN
NYM@DET OVER 8.5 54.5% 4 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9.5 56.4% 6 WIN
TEX@ARI ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.1% 4 LOSS
ATL@CHC CHC -116 55.1% 3 WIN
PHI@MIL OVER 8.5 55.0% 3 WIN
ARI@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES 54.2% 4 WIN
SEA@CLE CLE +1.5 57.2% 3 WIN
CHC@SF CHC -105 54.1% 4 LOSS
NYY@CHW RYAN MCMAHON OVER 0.5 BASES 54.1% 4 WIN
PHI@NYM OVER 8.5 55.6% 4 LOSS
LAA@TEX LOGAN OHOPPE OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.1% 4 LOSS
KC@CHW KC -109 54.2% 4 WIN
SD@SEA DYLAN CEASE OVER 16.5 OUTS 53.9% 3 LOSS
SD@SEA UNDER 8.5 54.4% 4 LOSS
MIN@TOR JOE RYAN UNDER 2.5 EARNED RUNS 54.1% 4 LOSS
SF@MIL MIL +100 54.0% 6 LOSS
TOR@MIA MIA +1.5 62.0% 6 WIN
CHC@LAA OVER 9.5 54.9% 4 LOSS
BOS@NYY CARLOS RODON UNDER 4.5 HITS ALLOWED 54.2% 4 WIN
KC@DET DET -115 56.1% 5 WIN
CHC@LAA LAA +1.5 57.6% 5 LOSS
CIN@ARI KEBRYAN HAYES STRIKEOUTS UNDER 0.5 56.2% 6 WIN
LAD@SD SD +110 50.9% 6 WIN