The Los Angeles Dodgers enter their August 6, 2025 matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals at Dodger Stadium with a 66–48 record, sitting firmly atop the NL West and continuing to project as one of baseball’s most dangerous teams, yet their performance against the run line has been underwhelming, with a 44.6 percent cover rate that reflects a tendency to win close rather than blow teams out. Shohei Ohtani takes the mound for Los Angeles, giving them a premier two‑way star whose pitching line this season has been elite, with a 2.40 ERA across 15 starts, an impressive strikeout rate, and the kind of command that suppresses both walks and home runs in a ballpark that rewards disciplined pitching. Ohtani’s mix of high‑velocity fastballs and devastating splitters is expected to neutralize St. Louis’ aggressive lineup, but his effectiveness will depend on early control and avoiding long counts against contact‑oriented hitters like Brendan Donovan and Masyn Winn. Offensively, the Dodgers are built to score in bursts with a lineup featuring Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Max Muncy, and emerging outfielder Andy Pages, who bring a combination of power, plate discipline, and situational hitting that can flip games quickly; Betts remains the tone‑setter at the top of the order with his blend of speed and extra‑base power, while Smith provides stability in the middle and Muncy’s left‑handed bat remains a threat to clear the bases in any at‑bat.

The team has been slightly streaky at home this season, occasionally leaving runners stranded despite high OPS numbers, which has contributed to their uneven ATS record, and their bullpen performance has oscillated between dominance and vulnerability in high‑leverage situations. Los Angeles relies heavily on late‑inning arms like Evan Phillips and Brusdar Graterol to protect leads, and manager Dave Roberts’ usage patterns will be critical if Ohtani pitches into the seventh inning before handing things off. Defensively, the Dodgers remain one of the most efficient teams in MLB, with an above‑average double‑play conversion rate and strong outfield range that is particularly valuable in suppressing extra‑base hits in the gaps at Dodger Stadium. The game plan for the Dodgers will be straightforward: use Ohtani’s ace‑level outing to control the pace, leverage early offensive pressure to generate at least a multi‑run cushion, and rely on a bullpen that, while inconsistent, has the talent to close out a tight game if handed a lead. For bettors, Los Angeles carries heavy favorite status, but their poor ATS record and history of struggling to cover at home present risk; they will need to execute flawlessly to both win and cover, especially against a Cardinals team that already swept them in St. Louis earlier this year. The Dodgers’ best chance lies in converting early scoring chances, allowing Ohtani to settle into rhythm, and maintaining defensive sharpness, as their overall talent and home‑field advantage provide the foundation for success in a game that could still be closer than the odds suggest.