The Cincinnati Reds arrive at Wrigley Field on Tuesday, August 5, 2025, with a 59‑54 record and carrying their usual underdog status as they aim to remain competitive in the National League Central. Their ATS record hovers around 43–44%, reflecting ongoing inconsistency in covering spreads, especially at road venues. However, recent trends hint at uptick in form and value: the Reds have gone 7‑3 over their last ten games and hold an 11‑13 ATS mark away over the past 30 contests, signaling renewed focus under pressure. In Chicago, they’ll send Zack Littell to the mound—a veteran right-hander sitting at approximately 8–8 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.12 WHIP—who needs to execute low pitch counts and soft contact to stay competitive. Littell’s style demands active defense behind him and consistent ball placement; otherwise, the Cubs’ disciplined lineup will force early traffic and expose gaps in Cleveland’s bullpen depth. At the plate, Cincinnati relies heavily on Elly De La Cruz, whose blend of speed, power, and fielding excellence injects energy at the top of the lineup and provides their best chance to manufacture scoring through steals, mixed contact, and situational hitting. Supporting cast includes up-and-coming contributors like Michael Massey and TJ Friedl—players capable of altering momentum when they capitalize on extended at-bats or defensive miscues. Yet the offense lacks consistency beyond its core, often failing to convert on opportunities with runners in scoring position, which is a critical disadvantage at Wrigley, where momentum can shift quickly. Without consistent on-base production, the Reds must rely on timely small-ball execution, drawing walks, and thoughtful base running to keep this game within reach.

Defensively, Cincinnati plays steady but has shown moments of slippage, particularly in Wrigley’s turf where pressure prompts fielding errors in tight games. Turning double plays and securing routine plays under pressure are essential, especially as Chicago seeks to exploit one bad hop or missed relay into a multi-run frame. The Reds’ defensive structure is a big part of their ATS formula: when it holds up, they stay close; when errors creep in, leads can grow quickly through Chicago’s disciplined offense. Their bullpen, while featuring capable arms like Cole Ragans and Ryan Yarbrough, lacks the depth and high-leverage stability of the Cubs. To cover the +1.5 run line, Cleveland must force scenarios in which they only trail by one run or fewer into the middle innings—preferably with Littell still in the game. If he exits early or allows early stress innings, the relief corps will be tested in tight conditions without commanding control. For underdog value, their plan is clear: extend at-bats to wear down Shōta Imanaga, punish mistakes, and force him to work deep into the lineup repeatedly. Aggressive base running, patient discipline at the plate, and a clean defensive performance must converge. If Littell can operate efficiently and the Reds can manufacture a run or two early, they create an avenue to hang around into the late innings. Clean defense and bullpen reliability will also be key. Cincinnati’s window hinges on flawless fundamentals—their margins for error are thin—but their recent ATS form suggests they remain dangerous when executing their game plan. If they can stretch this into a tight contest beyond the seventh inning, any late mistakes from a favored Cubs team could open the door for a comeback or value ATS cover. It won’t be easy, but disciplined baseball and opportunistic pressure give the Reds a formula to stay relevant on the road in this critical August showdown.