Astros vs. Marlins
Prediction, Odds & Props
Aug 04 | MLB AI Picks
Updated: 2025-08-02T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The Houston Astros travel to loanDepot Park to face off against the Miami Marlins in the August 4, 2025 matchup in Miami. The Marlins are slight favorites in the money line, but Houston is favored on the -1.5 run line with total set at 8.5, setting the stage for a tight betting tug‑of‑war.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

GAME INFO
Date: Aug 04, 2025
Start Time: 6:40 PM EST
Venue: loanDepot park
Marlins Record: (55-55)
Astros Record: (62-50)
OPENING ODDS
HOU Moneyline: -104
MIA Moneyline: -115
HOU Spread: -1.5
MIA Spread: +1.5
Over/Under: 8.5
HOU
Betting Trends
- Houston struggles against the run line overall in 2025, posting a 46–53 ATS record (46.5% cover rate).
MIA
Betting Trends
- Miami has been a strong run‑line cover team this season, with a 58–40 ATS record (59.2% cover rate).
MATCHUP TRENDS
- In their last five head‑to‑head games, the Marlins have gone 2–3 ATS against the Astros, showing a mixed trend in their recent matchups.
HOU vs. MIA
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: J. Marsee over 4.5 Fantasy Score.
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Houston vs Miami Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 8/4/25
Miami will hand the ball to Sandy Alcántara, their ace who, despite a higher ERA this season, still possesses excellent strikeout potential, strong command, and the ability to dominate when he finds his rhythm, making him a formidable challenge for a struggling Astros lineup. The Marlins’ bullpen has found its footing recently, converting close games into wins, and their home‑field advantage at loanDepot Park adds another layer of comfort for a team trending upward. Betting lines reflect the balance between Houston’s pedigree and Miami’s momentum, with the Marlins holding a slight edge on the money line, Houston favored on the –1.5 run line, and the total set around 8.5 runs, signaling expectations for a moderately high‑scoring contest. This matchup ultimately hinges on whether the Astros can break free from their offensive funk against Alcántara and whether their starting pitching can neutralize a Marlins team thriving on timely hitting and confidence at home. Both teams will approach this game with urgency, knowing that the smallest details—such as bullpen execution, defensive efficiency, and situational hitting—will likely determine the outcome, and fans can expect a tense, strategic battle that has the potential to set the tone for the rest of the series.
CARLOS CORREA. HOUSTON ASTRO. #BuiltForThis pic.twitter.com/eqevvczRto
— Houston Astros (@astros) August 3, 2025
Houston Astros MLB Preview
The Houston Astros enter their August 4, 2025 matchup against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot Park carrying the weight of high expectations and recent frustrations, making this road game a pivotal moment to reassert their dominance in the American League. Holding a 62–50 record and clinging to the top spot in the AL West, the Astros arrive after a difficult stretch in which they have lost 15 of their last 22 games, highlighted by a three‑game sweep in Boston where their lineup produced just a .174 batting average with runners in scoring position. Despite these struggles, Houston remains a team built for contention, relying on an elite pitching foundation that features Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown as the rotation’s cornerstones, with Jason Alexander expected to take the mound in this game. Alexander will look to provide a steady start as the Astros continue to manage a rotation stretched thin by injuries, with Spencer Arrighetti returning soon from the injured list and other arms like Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia working toward full health. Their bullpen has been one of the most dependable in baseball, offering a reliable safety net in close games and allowing the Astros to stay competitive even when the offense has faltered.
At the plate, Houston leans heavily on the veteran leadership and production of Jose Altuve, who continues to climb the franchise’s all‑time hits list, and the steady power of Kyle Tucker, while Alex Bregman’s consistency and Yainer Diaz’s contributions behind the plate provide additional sparks. The midseason acquisition of Jesús Sánchez from the Marlins adds a valuable left‑handed bat and outfield depth, addressing one of the lineup’s needs for balance and situational hitting. While their season against the spread sits at a disappointing 46–53, the Astros have performed better as underdogs, finding ways to cover when overlooked, and their recent head‑to‑head history against Miami has tilted slightly in their favor. For Houston to succeed in this contest, the formula will be clear: get a quality start from Alexander, rely on the bullpen to keep the game tight, and find timely hits from their veteran core to break through against Sandy Alcántara and the Marlins’ resurgent pitching staff. If the Astros can rediscover their offensive rhythm and execute in high‑leverage moments, their experience, depth, and championship pedigree give them the tools to overcome recent adversity and secure an important series‑opening victory on the road.

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Miami Marlins MLB Preview
The Miami Marlins enter their August 4, 2025 matchup against the Houston Astros at loanDepot Park riding a wave of momentum and confidence, determined to extend their mid‑season surge and keep their playoff hopes alive in the competitive National League East. With a 55–55 record and having won nine of their last eleven games, Miami has transformed from an inconsistent, middling team into a dangerous opponent capable of beating anyone, especially at home where their energy and execution have recently peaked. Their offensive identity is anchored by Luis Arraez, whose exceptional ability to get on base and deliver clutch hits sets the table for the rest of the lineup, while Jorge Soler’s resurgent power bat provides the thunder needed to change games with one swing. Complementing their stars are emerging contributors like Jake Burger and Jazz Chisholm Jr., who have combined timely hitting with improved plate discipline, giving the Marlins a more balanced and patient approach. On the pitching side, Miami turns to Sandy Alcántara, their unquestioned ace, whose ability to generate swings and misses and control the zone gives the Marlins a fighting chance against even the deepest lineups; although his ERA has been higher than expected this season, his underlying metrics and home performance suggest he is poised to deliver in key matchups like this one.
Behind him, the bullpen has stabilized in recent weeks, allowing the Marlins to convert close games into victories by limiting late‑inning mistakes, and the defensive unit has improved its efficiency, cutting down on errors that plagued the team earlier in the year. The Marlins’ home‑field advantage at loanDepot Park has played a key role in their recent surge, with the team feeding off the energy of their crowd and executing better in tight contests. From a betting perspective, Miami has been one of the stronger run‑line teams in 2025, covering nearly 60 percent of the time and thriving in situations where they are given short spreads or slight underdog status, reflecting their ability to compete in close games. For the Marlins, the keys to success against the Astros will be capitalizing on Houston’s current offensive slump, continuing their streak of clutch hitting with runners in scoring position, and leveraging Alcántara and the bullpen to suppress the Astros’ late‑game threats. If Miami can maintain its disciplined approach, avoid defensive lapses, and keep pressure on Houston from the opening innings, they have an excellent chance to seize the series opener, bolster their playoff push, and reinforce their reputation as a team no contender can afford to overlook down the stretch.
give me a couple of more looks like THAT pic.twitter.com/85AAxDmXCK
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) August 3, 2025
Houston vs. Miami Prop Picks (AI)
Houston vs. Miami Prediction (AI)

Remi, our AI sports algorithm, has been pouring over mountains of data from every past game between the Astros and Marlins and using recursive machine learning and industry leading AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.
Oddly enough, we’ve seen the AI has been most watching on the trending weight knucklehead sportsbettors often put on Houston’s strength factors between a Astros team going up against a possibly unhealthy Marlins team. In reality, the true game analytics appear to reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line specifically.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our MLB AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI Houston vs Miami picks, computer picks Astros vs Marlins, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full MLB schedule.
Astros Betting Trends
Houston struggles against the run line overall in 2025, posting a 46–53 ATS record (46.5% cover rate).
Marlins Betting Trends
Miami has been a strong run‑line cover team this season, with a 58–40 ATS record (59.2% cover rate).
Astros vs. Marlins Matchup Trends
In their last five head‑to‑head games, the Marlins have gone 2–3 ATS against the Astros, showing a mixed trend in their recent matchups.
Houston vs. Miami Game Info
What time does Houston vs Miami start on August 04, 2025?
Houston vs Miami starts on August 04, 2025 at 6:40 PM EST.
Where is Houston vs Miami being played?
Venue: loanDepot park.
What are the opening odds for Houston vs Miami?
Spread: Miami +1.5
Moneyline: Houston -104, Miami -115
Over/Under: 8.5
What are the records for Houston vs Miami?
Houston: (62-50) | Miami: (55-55)
What is the AI best bet for Houston vs Miami?
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: J. Marsee over 4.5 Fantasy Score.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
What are Houston vs Miami trending bets?
In their last five head‑to‑head games, the Marlins have gone 2–3 ATS against the Astros, showing a mixed trend in their recent matchups.
What are Houston trending bets?
HOU trend: Houston struggles against the run line overall in 2025, posting a 46–53 ATS record (46.5% cover rate).
What are Miami trending bets?
MIA trend: Miami has been a strong run‑line cover team this season, with a 58–40 ATS record (59.2% cover rate).
Where can I find AI Picks for Houston vs Miami?
See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
Houston vs. Miami Odds
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of data points on each player. In fact, anytime the Houston vs Miami trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme hostile environments rarely follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Houston vs Miami Opening Odds
HOU Moneyline:
-104 MIA Moneyline: -115
HOU Spread: -1.5
MIA Spread: +1.5
Over/Under: 8.5
Houston vs Miami Live Odds
Games | PTS | ML | SPR | O/U | |
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In Progress
St Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
In Progress
Cardinals
Cubs
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1
3
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-425
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-1.5 (-150)
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O 7.5 (-130)
U 7.5 (+100)
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In Progress
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
In Progress
Rays
Blue Jays
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0
3
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+460
-750
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+3.5 (-130)
-3.5 (+100)
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O 8.5 (-130)
U 8.5 (+100)
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Sep 27, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
9/27/25 4:06PM
Rockies
Giants
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–
–
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+190
-235
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+1.5 (-105)
-1.5 (-115)
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O 8 (-105)
U 8 (-115)
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Sep 27, 2025 4:11PM EDT
New York Mets
Miami Marlins
9/27/25 4:11PM
Mets
Marlins
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–
–
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-140
+115
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-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-145)
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O 8 (-105)
U 8 (-115)
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Sep 27, 2025 4:11PM EDT
Detroit Tigers
Boston Red Sox
9/27/25 4:11PM
Tigers
Red Sox
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–
–
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+100
-120
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-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-200)
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O 8.5 (-110)
U 8.5 (-110)
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Sep 27, 2025 5:05PM EDT
Chicago White Sox
Washington Nationals
9/27/25 5:05PM
White Sox
Nationals
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–
–
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-105
-115
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-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-180)
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O 8.5 (-115)
U 8.5 (-105)
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Sep 27, 2025 6:05PM EDT
Minnesota Twins
Philadelphia Phillies
9/27/25 6:05PM
Twins
Phillies
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–
–
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+185
-225
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+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
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O 8.5 (-115)
U 8.5 (-105)
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Sep 27, 2025 7:11PM EDT
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
9/27/25 7:11PM
Reds
Brewers
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–
–
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+110
-130
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+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+155)
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O 8 (-110)
U 8 (-110)
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Sep 27, 2025 7:15PM EDT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Atlanta Braves
9/27/25 7:15PM
Pirates
Braves
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–
–
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+145
-175
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+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+125)
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O 8 (-105)
U 8 (-115)
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Sep 27, 2025 7:16PM EDT
Texas Rangers
Cleveland Guardians
9/27/25 7:16PM
Rangers
Guardians
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–
–
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+120
-145
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+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+155)
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O 7 (-120)
U 7 (+100)
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Sep 27, 2025 8:40PM EDT
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
9/27/25 8:40PM
Diamondbacks
Padres
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–
–
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+130
-155
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+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+140)
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O 7.5 (-105)
U 7.5 (-115)
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Sep 27, 2025 9:39PM EDT
Houston Astros
Los Angeles Angels
9/27/25 9:39PM
Astros
Angels
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–
–
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-145
+120
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-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-130)
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O 9 (-110)
U 9 (-110)
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Sep 27, 2025 9:41PM EDT
Los Angeles Dodgers
Seattle Mariners
9/27/25 9:41PM
Dodgers
Mariners
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–
–
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+100
-120
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-1.5 (+175)
+1.5 (-215)
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O 7 (-115)
U 7 (-105)
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Sep 27, 2025 10:05PM EDT
Kansas City Royals
Oakland Athletics
9/27/25 10:05PM
Royals
Athletics
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–
–
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+100
-120
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-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-190)
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O 10 (-115)
U 10 (-105)
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Sep 28, 2025 3:06PM EDT
Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
9/28/25 3:06PM
Orioles
Yankees
|
–
–
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+144
-172
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+1.5 (-146)
-1.5 (+122)
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O 9 (-122)
U 9 (+100)
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MLB Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Houston Astros vs. Miami Marlins on August 04, 2025 at loanDepot park.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
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LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
---|---|---|---|---|
ARI@SD | SD -131 | 57.3% | 4 | WIN |
DET@BOS | BOS -115 | 56.4% | 5 | WIN |
NYM@CHC | NYM -110 | 54.1% | 3 | WIN |
HOU@ATH | ATH +118 | 50.8% | 4 | WIN |
NYM@CHC | OVER 7 | 54.5% | 3 | WIN |
STL@SF | OVER 7.5 | 55.9% | 5 | LOSS |
KC@LAA | TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
MIL@SD | UNDER 9 | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
MIA@PHI | KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS | 53.3% | 3 | WIN |
WAS@NYM | OVER 8.5 | 56.1% | 6 | LOSS |
LAA@COL | COL +108 | 50.5% | 3 | WIN |
TOR@KC | UNDER 9 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
SEA@KC | KC +1.5 | 62.3% | 5 | LOSS |
NYY@MIN | OVER 9 | 55.1% | 4 | WIN |
MIA@COL | OVER 10.5 | 55.0% | 4 | WIN |
MIA@COL | AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
SEA@KC | BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
PHI@LAD | LAD -113 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
NYY@BOS | OVER 7.5 | 54.3% | 3 | WIN |
KC@PHI | PHI -130 | 58.3% | 4 | WIN |
LAD@SF | OVER 7.5 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
NYM@PHI | PHI -122 | 55.6% | 4 | WIN |
KC@CLE | KC -104 | 52.0% | 3 | WIN |
CIN@SD | JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS | 53.1% | 3 | WIN |
WAS@MIA | MIA -123 | 55.2% | 4 | LOSS |
LAA@KC | UNDER 9.5 | 54.9% | 3 | WIN |
TEX@ARI | UNDER 9 | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
SF@COL | UNDER 11.5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |
SF@COL | RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES | 56.1% | 6 | WIN |
MIA@WAS | WAS -110 | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
NYM@DET | OVER 8.5 | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
TEX@ARI | UNDER 9.5 | 56.4% | 6 | WIN |
TEX@ARI | ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
ATL@CHC | CHC -116 | 55.1% | 3 | WIN |
PHI@MIL | OVER 8.5 | 55.0% | 3 | WIN |
ARI@LAD | SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
SEA@CLE | CLE +1.5 | 57.2% | 3 | WIN |
CHC@SF | CHC -105 | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
NYY@CHW | RYAN MCMAHON OVER 0.5 BASES | 54.1% | 4 | WIN |
PHI@NYM | OVER 8.5 | 55.6% | 4 | LOSS |
LAA@TEX | LOGAN OHOPPE OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
KC@CHW | KC -109 | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
SD@SEA | DYLAN CEASE OVER 16.5 OUTS | 53.9% | 3 | LOSS |
SD@SEA | UNDER 8.5 | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
MIN@TOR | JOE RYAN UNDER 2.5 EARNED RUNS | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
SF@MIL | MIL +100 | 54.0% | 6 | LOSS |
TOR@MIA | MIA +1.5 | 62.0% | 6 | WIN |
CHC@LAA | OVER 9.5 | 54.9% | 4 | LOSS |
BOS@NYY | CARLOS RODON UNDER 4.5 HITS ALLOWED | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
KC@DET | DET -115 | 56.1% | 5 | WIN |
CHC@LAA | LAA +1.5 | 57.6% | 5 | LOSS |