Astros vs. Marlins
Prediction, Odds & Props
Aug 04 | MLB AI Picks

Updated: 2025-08-02T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Houston Astros travel to loanDepot Park to face off against the Miami Marlins in the August 4, 2025 matchup in Miami. The Marlins are slight favorites in the money line, but Houston is favored on the -1.5 run line with total set at 8.5, setting the stage for a tight betting tug‑of‑war.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Aug 04, 2025

Start Time: 6:40 PM EST​

Venue: loanDepot park​

Marlins Record: (55-55)

Astros Record: (62-50)

OPENING ODDS

HOU Moneyline: -104

MIA Moneyline: -115

HOU Spread: -1.5

MIA Spread: +1.5

Over/Under: 8.5

HOU
Betting Trends

  • Houston struggles against the run line overall in 2025, posting a 46–53 ATS record (46.5% cover rate).

MIA
Betting Trends

  • Miami has been a strong run‑line cover team this season, with a 58–40 ATS record (59.2% cover rate).

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • In their last five head‑to‑head games, the Marlins have gone 2–3 ATS against the Astros, showing a mixed trend in their recent matchups.

HOU vs. MIA
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: J. Marsee over 4.5 Fantasy Score.

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Houston vs Miami Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 8/4/25

On August 4, 2025, the Houston Astros travel to loanDepot Park in Miami to face the Miami Marlins in a matchup that carries important implications for both teams as they aim to strengthen their playoff positions. Houston enters the contest with a 62–50 record and a narrow lead in the AL West, but they arrive on the heels of a frustrating stretch that has exposed their offensive inconsistency, including a recent three‑game sweep in Boston where they batted just .174 with runners in scoring position and left too many men on base. Despite the slump, the Astros remain a dangerous team, built on a foundation of elite pitching led by Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown, with Jason Alexander slated to start this game while the bullpen, one of the most reliable in the American League, provides critical late‑inning support. Offensively, Houston continues to rely heavily on Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman, with the recent addition of Jesús Sánchez intended to bolster the lineup and add a left‑handed threat capable of producing in clutch spots. On the other side, the Marlins enter this game with a 55–55 record and a surge of confidence after winning nine of their last eleven games, driven by a lineup anchored by the ever‑consistent Luis Arraez and the power of Jorge Soler, combined with solid contributions from role players who have stepped up during their mid‑season push.

Miami will hand the ball to Sandy Alcántara, their ace who, despite a higher ERA this season, still possesses excellent strikeout potential, strong command, and the ability to dominate when he finds his rhythm, making him a formidable challenge for a struggling Astros lineup. The Marlins’ bullpen has found its footing recently, converting close games into wins, and their home‑field advantage at loanDepot Park adds another layer of comfort for a team trending upward. Betting lines reflect the balance between Houston’s pedigree and Miami’s momentum, with the Marlins holding a slight edge on the money line, Houston favored on the –1.5 run line, and the total set around 8.5 runs, signaling expectations for a moderately high‑scoring contest. This matchup ultimately hinges on whether the Astros can break free from their offensive funk against Alcántara and whether their starting pitching can neutralize a Marlins team thriving on timely hitting and confidence at home. Both teams will approach this game with urgency, knowing that the smallest details—such as bullpen execution, defensive efficiency, and situational hitting—will likely determine the outcome, and fans can expect a tense, strategic battle that has the potential to set the tone for the rest of the series.

Houston Astros MLB Preview

The Houston Astros enter their August 4, 2025 matchup against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot Park carrying the weight of high expectations and recent frustrations, making this road game a pivotal moment to reassert their dominance in the American League. Holding a 62–50 record and clinging to the top spot in the AL West, the Astros arrive after a difficult stretch in which they have lost 15 of their last 22 games, highlighted by a three‑game sweep in Boston where their lineup produced just a .174 batting average with runners in scoring position. Despite these struggles, Houston remains a team built for contention, relying on an elite pitching foundation that features Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown as the rotation’s cornerstones, with Jason Alexander expected to take the mound in this game. Alexander will look to provide a steady start as the Astros continue to manage a rotation stretched thin by injuries, with Spencer Arrighetti returning soon from the injured list and other arms like Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia working toward full health. Their bullpen has been one of the most dependable in baseball, offering a reliable safety net in close games and allowing the Astros to stay competitive even when the offense has faltered.

At the plate, Houston leans heavily on the veteran leadership and production of Jose Altuve, who continues to climb the franchise’s all‑time hits list, and the steady power of Kyle Tucker, while Alex Bregman’s consistency and Yainer Diaz’s contributions behind the plate provide additional sparks. The midseason acquisition of Jesús Sánchez from the Marlins adds a valuable left‑handed bat and outfield depth, addressing one of the lineup’s needs for balance and situational hitting. While their season against the spread sits at a disappointing 46–53, the Astros have performed better as underdogs, finding ways to cover when overlooked, and their recent head‑to‑head history against Miami has tilted slightly in their favor. For Houston to succeed in this contest, the formula will be clear: get a quality start from Alexander, rely on the bullpen to keep the game tight, and find timely hits from their veteran core to break through against Sandy Alcántara and the Marlins’ resurgent pitching staff. If the Astros can rediscover their offensive rhythm and execute in high‑leverage moments, their experience, depth, and championship pedigree give them the tools to overcome recent adversity and secure an important series‑opening victory on the road.

The Houston Astros travel to loanDepot Park to face off against the Miami Marlins in the August 4, 2025 matchup in Miami. The Marlins are slight favorites in the money line, but Houston is favored on the -1.5 run line with total set at 8.5, setting the stage for a tight betting tug‑of‑war. Houston vs Miami AI Prediction: Free MLB Betting Insights for Aug 04. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Miami Marlins MLB Preview

The Miami Marlins enter their August 4, 2025 matchup against the Houston Astros at loanDepot Park riding a wave of momentum and confidence, determined to extend their mid‑season surge and keep their playoff hopes alive in the competitive National League East. With a 55–55 record and having won nine of their last eleven games, Miami has transformed from an inconsistent, middling team into a dangerous opponent capable of beating anyone, especially at home where their energy and execution have recently peaked. Their offensive identity is anchored by Luis Arraez, whose exceptional ability to get on base and deliver clutch hits sets the table for the rest of the lineup, while Jorge Soler’s resurgent power bat provides the thunder needed to change games with one swing. Complementing their stars are emerging contributors like Jake Burger and Jazz Chisholm Jr., who have combined timely hitting with improved plate discipline, giving the Marlins a more balanced and patient approach. On the pitching side, Miami turns to Sandy Alcántara, their unquestioned ace, whose ability to generate swings and misses and control the zone gives the Marlins a fighting chance against even the deepest lineups; although his ERA has been higher than expected this season, his underlying metrics and home performance suggest he is poised to deliver in key matchups like this one.

Behind him, the bullpen has stabilized in recent weeks, allowing the Marlins to convert close games into victories by limiting late‑inning mistakes, and the defensive unit has improved its efficiency, cutting down on errors that plagued the team earlier in the year. The Marlins’ home‑field advantage at loanDepot Park has played a key role in their recent surge, with the team feeding off the energy of their crowd and executing better in tight contests. From a betting perspective, Miami has been one of the stronger run‑line teams in 2025, covering nearly 60 percent of the time and thriving in situations where they are given short spreads or slight underdog status, reflecting their ability to compete in close games. For the Marlins, the keys to success against the Astros will be capitalizing on Houston’s current offensive slump, continuing their streak of clutch hitting with runners in scoring position, and leveraging Alcántara and the bullpen to suppress the Astros’ late‑game threats. If Miami can maintain its disciplined approach, avoid defensive lapses, and keep pressure on Houston from the opening innings, they have an excellent chance to seize the series opener, bolster their playoff push, and reinforce their reputation as a team no contender can afford to overlook down the stretch.

Houston vs. Miami Prop Picks (AI)

Remi is pouring through mountains of stats on each line. In fact, anytime the Astros and Marlins play there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at loanDepot park in Aug can often follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: J. Marsee over 4.5 Fantasy Score.

Houston vs. Miami Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports algorithm, has been pouring over mountains of data from every past game between the Astros and Marlins and using recursive machine learning and industry leading AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.

Oddly enough, we’ve seen the AI has been most watching on the trending weight knucklehead sportsbettors often put on Houston’s strength factors between a Astros team going up against a possibly unhealthy Marlins team. In reality, the true game analytics appear to reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line specifically.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our MLB AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Houston vs Miami picks, computer picks Astros vs Marlins, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full MLB schedule.

Astros Betting Trends

Houston struggles against the run line overall in 2025, posting a 46–53 ATS record (46.5% cover rate).

Marlins Betting Trends

Miami has been a strong run‑line cover team this season, with a 58–40 ATS record (59.2% cover rate).

Astros vs. Marlins Matchup Trends

In their last five head‑to‑head games, the Marlins have gone 2–3 ATS against the Astros, showing a mixed trend in their recent matchups.

Houston vs. Miami Game Info

Houston vs Miami starts on August 04, 2025 at 6:40 PM EST.

Spread: Miami +1.5
Moneyline: Houston -104, Miami -115
Over/Under: 8.5

Houston: (62-50)  |  Miami: (55-55)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: J. Marsee over 4.5 Fantasy Score.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

In their last five head‑to‑head games, the Marlins have gone 2–3 ATS against the Astros, showing a mixed trend in their recent matchups.

HOU trend: Houston struggles against the run line overall in 2025, posting a 46–53 ATS record (46.5% cover rate).

MIA trend: Miami has been a strong run‑line cover team this season, with a 58–40 ATS record (59.2% cover rate).

See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Houston vs. Miami Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of data points on each player. In fact, anytime the Houston vs Miami trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme hostile environments rarely follow normal, predictable betting trends.

Houston vs Miami Opening Odds

HOU Moneyline: -104
MIA Moneyline: -115
HOU Spread: -1.5
MIA Spread: +1.5
Over/Under: 8.5

Houston vs Miami Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
In Progress
St Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
In Progress
Cardinals
Cubs
1
3
 
-425
 
-1.5 (-150)
O 7.5 (-130)
U 7.5 (+100)
In Progress
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
In Progress
Rays
Blue Jays
0
3
+460
-750
+3.5 (-130)
-3.5 (+100)
O 8.5 (-130)
U 8.5 (+100)
Sep 27, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
9/27/25 4:06PM
Rockies
Giants
+190
-235
+1.5 (-105)
-1.5 (-115)
O 8 (-105)
U 8 (-115)
Sep 27, 2025 4:11PM EDT
New York Mets
Miami Marlins
9/27/25 4:11PM
Mets
Marlins
-140
+115
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-145)
O 8 (-105)
U 8 (-115)
Sep 27, 2025 4:11PM EDT
Detroit Tigers
Boston Red Sox
9/27/25 4:11PM
Tigers
Red Sox
+100
-120
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-200)
O 8.5 (-110)
U 8.5 (-110)
Sep 27, 2025 5:05PM EDT
Chicago White Sox
Washington Nationals
9/27/25 5:05PM
White Sox
Nationals
-105
-115
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-180)
O 8.5 (-115)
U 8.5 (-105)
Sep 27, 2025 6:05PM EDT
Minnesota Twins
Philadelphia Phillies
9/27/25 6:05PM
Twins
Phillies
+185
-225
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
O 8.5 (-115)
U 8.5 (-105)
Sep 27, 2025 7:11PM EDT
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
9/27/25 7:11PM
Reds
Brewers
+110
-130
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+155)
O 8 (-110)
U 8 (-110)
Sep 27, 2025 7:15PM EDT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Atlanta Braves
9/27/25 7:15PM
Pirates
Braves
+145
-175
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+125)
O 8 (-105)
U 8 (-115)
Sep 27, 2025 7:16PM EDT
Texas Rangers
Cleveland Guardians
9/27/25 7:16PM
Rangers
Guardians
+120
-145
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+155)
O 7 (-120)
U 7 (+100)
Sep 27, 2025 8:40PM EDT
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
9/27/25 8:40PM
Diamondbacks
Padres
+130
-155
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+140)
O 7.5 (-105)
U 7.5 (-115)
Sep 27, 2025 9:39PM EDT
Houston Astros
Los Angeles Angels
9/27/25 9:39PM
Astros
Angels
-145
+120
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-130)
O 9 (-110)
U 9 (-110)
Sep 27, 2025 9:41PM EDT
Los Angeles Dodgers
Seattle Mariners
9/27/25 9:41PM
Dodgers
Mariners
+100
-120
-1.5 (+175)
+1.5 (-215)
O 7 (-115)
U 7 (-105)
Sep 27, 2025 10:05PM EDT
Kansas City Royals
Oakland Athletics
9/27/25 10:05PM
Royals
Athletics
+100
-120
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-190)
O 10 (-115)
U 10 (-105)
Sep 28, 2025 3:06PM EDT
Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
9/28/25 3:06PM
Orioles
Yankees
+144
-172
+1.5 (-146)
-1.5 (+122)
O 9 (-122)
U 9 (+100)

MLB Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Houston Astros vs. Miami Marlins on August 04, 2025 at loanDepot park.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
ARI@SD SD -131 57.3% 4 WIN
DET@BOS BOS -115 56.4% 5 WIN
NYM@CHC NYM -110 54.1% 3 WIN
HOU@ATH ATH +118 50.8% 4 WIN
NYM@CHC OVER 7 54.5% 3 WIN
STL@SF OVER 7.5 55.9% 5 LOSS
KC@LAA TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@SD UNDER 9 54.7% 4 WIN
MIA@PHI KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 53.3% 3 WIN
WAS@NYM OVER 8.5 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAA@COL COL +108 50.5% 3 WIN
TOR@KC UNDER 9 54.7% 4 LOSS
SEA@KC KC +1.5 62.3% 5 LOSS
NYY@MIN OVER 9 55.1% 4 WIN
MIA@COL OVER 10.5 55.0% 4 WIN
MIA@COL AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.3% 4 WIN
SEA@KC BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES 54.4% 4 LOSS
PHI@LAD LAD -113 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYY@BOS OVER 7.5 54.3% 3 WIN
KC@PHI PHI -130 58.3% 4 WIN
LAD@SF OVER 7.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYM@PHI PHI -122 55.6% 4 WIN
KC@CLE KC -104 52.0% 3 WIN
CIN@SD JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS 53.1% 3 WIN
WAS@MIA MIA -123 55.2% 4 LOSS
LAA@KC UNDER 9.5 54.9% 3 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9 54.2% 4 WIN
SF@COL UNDER 11.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
SF@COL RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES 56.1% 6 WIN
MIA@WAS WAS -110 54.4% 4 WIN
NYM@DET OVER 8.5 54.5% 4 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9.5 56.4% 6 WIN
TEX@ARI ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.1% 4 LOSS
ATL@CHC CHC -116 55.1% 3 WIN
PHI@MIL OVER 8.5 55.0% 3 WIN
ARI@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES 54.2% 4 WIN
SEA@CLE CLE +1.5 57.2% 3 WIN
CHC@SF CHC -105 54.1% 4 LOSS
NYY@CHW RYAN MCMAHON OVER 0.5 BASES 54.1% 4 WIN
PHI@NYM OVER 8.5 55.6% 4 LOSS
LAA@TEX LOGAN OHOPPE OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.1% 4 LOSS
KC@CHW KC -109 54.2% 4 WIN
SD@SEA DYLAN CEASE OVER 16.5 OUTS 53.9% 3 LOSS
SD@SEA UNDER 8.5 54.4% 4 LOSS
MIN@TOR JOE RYAN UNDER 2.5 EARNED RUNS 54.1% 4 LOSS
SF@MIL MIL +100 54.0% 6 LOSS
TOR@MIA MIA +1.5 62.0% 6 WIN
CHC@LAA OVER 9.5 54.9% 4 LOSS
BOS@NYY CARLOS RODON UNDER 4.5 HITS ALLOWED 54.2% 4 WIN
KC@DET DET -115 56.1% 5 WIN
CHC@LAA LAA +1.5 57.6% 5 LOSS