Rays vs Yankees Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS MLB Lines & Props (Jul 28)

Updated: 2025-07-26T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Tampa Bay Rays head to Yankee Stadium to face the New York Yankees on Monday, July 28, 2025, with the Yankees favored at approximately –130 moneyline and –1.5 on the run line, and a total around 9 runs, suggesting expectations of constricted offenses and a pitching tilt.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Jul 28, 2025

Start Time: 7:05 PM EST​

Venue: Yankee Stadium​

Yankees Record: (57-48)

Rays Record: (53-53)

OPENING ODDS

TB Moneyline: +101

NYY Moneyline: -120

TB Spread: +1.5

NYY Spread: -1.5

Over/Under: 8.5

TB
Betting Trends

  • Tampa Bay enters at 50–47 overall (fourth in the AL East) and has been underwhelming in July—they went only 6–11 for the month—making them a riskier ATS wager, especially away from home. They’ve struggled in tight AL East matchups.

NYY
Betting Trends

  • New York holds a 56–48 record overall, but went just 6–8 in July, and have shown issues cleaning up fundamentals in close games. ATS consistency has been shaky, particularly in one-run affairs and division games.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Even with public money leaning heavily toward the Yankees at home, sharp models lean toward the Rays on the run line or an alternate under, citing Tampa Bay’s elite bullpen and Yankee defensive lapses that have surfaced lately.

TB vs. NYY
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: T. Gray under 1.5 Total Bases.

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Tampa Bay vs New York Yankees Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 7/28/25

Monday’s series opener between the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium features two American League East foes both looking to stabilize after uneven performances throughout July, with the Yankees entering at 56–48 and the Rays slightly below .500 at 50–52. While the Yankees have the better overall record and home-field advantage, both teams are navigating through internal inconsistencies and critical injuries, making this matchup more of a toss-up than it may initially appear. New York has seen a downturn in defensive fundamentals and timely hitting, resulting in a 6–8 record so far in July and leaving fans and management frustrated. Their star-laden lineup, including Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Cody Bellinger, has struggled with runners in scoring position, especially in late-game situations. The bullpen, which had been reliable in early summer, has shown signs of fatigue and instability, which could open a door for Tampa Bay if they keep things close. Meanwhile, the Rays bring a fundamentally sound bullpen and opportunistic offense that thrives in small-ball situations, although their hitting has been cold recently.

They’ve gone 6–11 in July, yet their ability to stay competitive in tight games has made them a tricky team to finish off, especially with late-inning arms like Pete Fairbanks and Jason Adam anchoring the back end. While the Yankees are modest favorites on the moneyline and run line, sharp bettors are eyeing Tampa Bay’s value, particularly on the run line, given the Rays’ reputation for grinding out low-scoring wins or one-run losses. Starting pitching matchups (TBD as of now) will be crucial—New York is expected to send out a mid-rotation arm, possibly Clarke Schmidt or Luis Gil, while Tampa Bay could counter with Zach Eflin or Ryan Pepiot, both of whom are capable of limiting damage and keeping the game close. The over/under is likely set around 9, and that may tilt toward the under based on recent offensive struggles from both squads and the strength of both bullpens. The Yankees have a better home record than the Rays do on the road, but the gap is narrowing, and Tampa Bay tends to play its best ball when doubted. From a betting standpoint, expect this to be one of those games where the outcome may hinge on a single error, a blown save, or a key two-out hit, all of which suggest the smart money may be on taking Tampa Bay to cover or even win outright, especially if New York continues to underachieve in late innings. If either team manages to jump out to an early lead, bullpen execution and clutch hitting will determine whether the Yankees protect home field or the Rays sneak out another gritty road win in a divisional slugfest with plenty of playoff implications.

Tampa Bay Rays MLB Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays enter Monday’s clash with the New York Yankees searching for consistency and momentum in what has been a frustratingly uneven 2025 campaign. Currently sitting at 50–52 and in fourth place in the AL East, the Rays are trying to string together wins in a division that hasn’t allowed much breathing room. Tampa Bay’s identity as a scrappy, well-managed club remains intact under Kevin Cash, but the team has underperformed compared to expectations, particularly on the offensive end. While their pitching—especially the bullpen anchored by Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, and Garrett Cleavinger—has been mostly dependable, the Rays’ offense has been cold for much of July. Key contributors like Yandy Díaz and Isaac Paredes have been in extended slumps, while breakout candidates like Curtis Mead and José Caballero have offered flashes but no sustained production. The club’s record in one-run games has historically been a strength, and while that trend continues in spots, they’ve also let several winnable contests slip away due to poor situational hitting. Zach Eflin and Ryan Pepiot are two arms who could toe the rubber Monday, both of whom have had solid but unspectacular seasons, mixing strong outings with occasional duds.

Pepiot, in particular, has shown an ability to miss bats with his elite changeup, which could be effective against a Yankees lineup prone to chasing. The Rays’ formula for success will be controlling the pace of the game, keeping the Yankees’ power hitters off balance, and capitalizing on defensive mistakes or miscues—areas where the Bronx Bombers have struggled lately. Tampa Bay has been far more successful against the spread (ATS) on the road than at home this season, and they’ve traditionally been one of the best road underdogs in the American League, often flying under the radar when the spotlight shifts to bigger-market teams. Their ability to play clean, mistake-free baseball and force opponents into long innings gives them a puncher’s chance in nearly every matchup, and that will again be the goal on Monday. With the Yankees mired in inconsistency and pressure mounting from their fan base, the Rays have a real opportunity to seize early momentum and put the home team on its heels. If they can get even modest offensive contributions from the middle of the order and avoid falling behind early, Tampa Bay is fully capable of walking out of Yankee Stadium with a much-needed victory to kickstart a tough road trip.

The Tampa Bay Rays head to Yankee Stadium to face the New York Yankees on Monday, July 28, 2025, with the Yankees favored at approximately –130 moneyline and –1.5 on the run line, and a total around 9 runs, suggesting expectations of constricted offenses and a pitching tilt. Tampa Bay vs New York Yankees AI Prediction: Free MLB Betting Insights for Jul 28. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

New York Yankees Yankees MLB Preview

The New York Yankees return home to Yankee Stadium on Monday night looking to stabilize a season that has gradually slipped from commanding to confounding. Once perched comfortably atop the AL East, the Yankees have been tumbling in the standings due to an anemic offense, key injuries, and inconsistent bullpen performances that have made late-inning leads anything but secure. With a 57–48 record, New York still remains in the playoff picture, but their recent stretch of sub-.500 baseball has fans and media alike questioning the direction of a team loaded with both payroll and pressure. Aaron Judge continues to be the heart and soul of the Yankees’ offense, leading the league in home runs and RBIs, but his supporting cast has been wildly inconsistent. Anthony Volpe has shown flashes of growth in his sophomore season, and Juan Soto, while still productive, has cooled off from his torrid spring. The Yankees’ Achilles heel lately has been their inability to get clutch hits with runners in scoring position, frequently stranding men on base and coming up empty in high-leverage spots. Pitching-wise, the rotation has shown both brilliance and volatility—Carlos Rodón’s return from injury has been rocky, while Gerrit Cole continues working his way back to full form. Nestor Cortes, a possible starter for Monday’s game, has struggled with command in his last few outings but remains a fan favorite for his deceptive delivery and bulldog mentality.

The Yankees’ bullpen, once a fortress, has become increasingly unreliable in July, with Clay Holmes and Tommy Kahnle both enduring rocky stretches. Offensively, the team desperately needs Giancarlo Stanton to recapture his power stroke, as the Yankees often look like a one-dimensional lineup when Judge is pitched around. Yankee Stadium’s hitter-friendly dimensions do give them an edge when it comes to turning fly balls into home runs, particularly in the short right-field porch, and the club will look to leverage that against a Rays team that prefers low-scoring, strategic battles. Defensively, the Yankees have been above average but prone to occasional lapses, particularly in the infield, where communication breakdowns have cost them key outs in recent games. Manager Aaron Boone continues to juggle the lineup card, searching for combinations that will produce timely hitting, but the lack of consistency has made each game feel like a coin flip. The Yankees will need a strong start from their pitching staff and a multi-hit night from someone other than Judge to assert control over a Rays team known for making opponents grind out every inning. While New York remains dangerous on paper, the real test is whether they can turn talent into execution and urgency into performance. Monday night’s game will be more than just another divisional contest—it may very well set the tone for how the Yankees respond to the second half of the season and whether they can reignite the winning culture that defined their spring dominance.

Tampa Bay vs. New York Yankees Prop Picks (AI)

Remi is pouring through tons of datapoints on each line. In fact, anytime the Rays and Yankees play there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at Yankee Stadium in Jul rarely follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: T. Gray under 1.5 Total Bases.

Tampa Bay vs. New York Yankees Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports algorithm, has been pouring over exorbitant amounts of data from every past game between the Rays and Yankees and using recursive machine learning and impressive AI to boil down the data to a single cover probability.

Interestingly enough, the data has been most focused on the unproportionally assigned weight human bettors often put on coaching factors between a Rays team going up against a possibly strong Yankees team. In reality, the true game analytics appear to reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line specifically.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our MLB AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Tampa Bay vs New York Yankees picks, computer picks Rays vs Yankees, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
MLB 10/20 SEA@TOR UNLOCK THIS PICK 2 INTEL Locked INTEL
MLB 10/20 SEA@TOR UNLOCK THIS PICK 0 INTEL Locked INTEL

These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full MLB schedule.

Rays Betting Trends

Tampa Bay enters at 50–47 overall (fourth in the AL East) and has been underwhelming in July—they went only 6–11 for the month—making them a riskier ATS wager, especially away from home. They’ve struggled in tight AL East matchups.

Yankees Betting Trends

New York holds a 56–48 record overall, but went just 6–8 in July, and have shown issues cleaning up fundamentals in close games. ATS consistency has been shaky, particularly in one-run affairs and division games.

Rays vs. Yankees Matchup Trends

Even with public money leaning heavily toward the Yankees at home, sharp models lean toward the Rays on the run line or an alternate under, citing Tampa Bay’s elite bullpen and Yankee defensive lapses that have surfaced lately.

Tampa Bay vs. New York Yankees Game Info

Tampa Bay vs New York Yankees starts on July 28, 2025 at 7:05 PM EST.

Spread: New York Yankees -1.5
Moneyline: Tampa Bay +101, New York Yankees -120
Over/Under: 8.5

Tampa Bay: (53-53)  |  New York Yankees: (57-48)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: T. Gray under 1.5 Total Bases.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

Even with public money leaning heavily toward the Yankees at home, sharp models lean toward the Rays on the run line or an alternate under, citing Tampa Bay’s elite bullpen and Yankee defensive lapses that have surfaced lately.

TB trend: Tampa Bay enters at 50–47 overall (fourth in the AL East) and has been underwhelming in July—they went only 6–11 for the month—making them a riskier ATS wager, especially away from home. They’ve struggled in tight AL East matchups.

NYY trend: New York holds a 56–48 record overall, but went just 6–8 in July, and have shown issues cleaning up fundamentals in close games. ATS consistency has been shaky, particularly in one-run affairs and division games.

See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Tampa Bay vs. New York Yankees Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of data points on each player. In fact, anytime the Tampa Bay vs New York Yankees trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme travel distance seemingly never follow normal, predictable patterns.

Tampa Bay vs New York Yankees Opening Odds

TB Moneyline: +101
NYY Moneyline: -120
TB Spread: +1.5
NYY Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 8.5

Tampa Bay vs New York Yankees Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Oct 24, 2025 9:08PM EDT
Los Angeles Dodgers
Toronto Blue Jays
10/24/25 9:08PM
Dodgers
Blue Jays
-140
+127
-1.5 (+124)
+1.5 (-140)
O 7.5 (+107)
U 7.5 (-123)

MLB Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Yankees on July 28, 2025 at Yankee Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
TOR@SEA OVER 7 54.9% 3 WIN
LAD@MIL UNDER 7.5 56.6% 6 WIN
TOR@NYY OVER 8 54.9% 4 WIN
TOR@NYY CARLOS RODON OVER 1.5 TOTAL WALKS ALLOWED 53.3% 3 WIN
NYY@TOR OVER 7.5 54.8% 2 WIN
LAD@PHI OVER 7 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC CHC -109 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC OVER 7.5 54.5% 4 LOSS
SD@CHC CHC -111 54.8% 4 LOSS
CIN@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 1.5 BASES 53.5% 3 WIN
BOS@NYY OVER 7 53.8% 3 LOSS
CIN@LAD ELLY DE LA CRUZ OVER 0.5 BASES 54.4% 4 LOSS
ARI@SD SD -131 57.3% 4 WIN
DET@BOS BOS -115 56.4% 5 WIN
NYM@CHC NYM -110 54.1% 3 WIN
HOU@ATH ATH +118 50.8% 4 WIN
NYM@CHC OVER 7 54.5% 3 WIN
STL@SF OVER 7.5 55.9% 5 LOSS
KC@LAA TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@SD UNDER 9 54.7% 4 WIN
MIA@PHI KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 53.3% 3 WIN
WAS@NYM OVER 8.5 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAA@COL COL +108 50.5% 3 WIN
TOR@KC UNDER 9 54.7% 4 LOSS
SEA@KC KC +1.5 62.3% 5 LOSS
NYY@MIN OVER 9 55.1% 4 WIN
MIA@COL OVER 10.5 55.0% 4 WIN
MIA@COL AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.3% 4 WIN
SEA@KC BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES 54.4% 4 LOSS
PHI@LAD LAD -113 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYY@BOS OVER 7.5 54.3% 3 WIN
KC@PHI PHI -130 58.3% 4 WIN
LAD@SF OVER 7.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYM@PHI PHI -122 55.6% 4 WIN
KC@CLE KC -104 52.0% 3 WIN
CIN@SD JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS 53.1% 3 WIN
WAS@MIA MIA -123 55.2% 4 LOSS
LAA@KC UNDER 9.5 54.9% 3 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9 54.2% 4 WIN
SF@COL UNDER 11.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
SF@COL RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES 56.1% 6 WIN
MIA@WAS WAS -110 54.4% 4 WIN
NYM@DET OVER 8.5 54.5% 4 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9.5 56.4% 6 WIN
TEX@ARI ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.1% 4 LOSS
ATL@CHC CHC -116 55.1% 3 WIN
PHI@MIL OVER 8.5 55.0% 3 WIN
ARI@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES 54.2% 4 WIN
SEA@CLE CLE +1.5 57.2% 3 WIN
CHC@SF CHC -105 54.1% 4 LOSS
NYY@CHW RYAN MCMAHON OVER 0.5 BASES 54.1% 4 WIN