The July 28, 2025 matchup between the Boston Red Sox and Minnesota Twins at Target Field sets up as a compelling late-season clash between two teams with playoff aspirations navigating very different trajectories. The Red Sox enter this game with a 56–50 record, fighting for ground in the ultra-competitive AL East, while the Twins, sitting at 50–54, are hoping to stay relevant in the AL Central. Boston has been playing sharp baseball in July, going 12–4 this month, powered by clutch hitting and a resurgent bullpen. Minnesota, despite hovering below .500, remains tough at home with a 29–22 record at Target Field and has recently won 8 of its last 11 home contests, giving them confidence heading into this series. The expected pitching matchup features Boston’s right-hander Richard Fitts (4.86 ERA) against Minnesota’s promising Simeon Woods Richardson (4.14 ERA), both of whom bring mid-rotation arms capable of keeping the ball in the park but prone to control lapses. The Red Sox offense, led by Alex Bregman, Jarren Duran, and Rafael Devers, thrives when they’re connecting early in counts and generating power through the middle of the lineup, yet they’ve cooled off slightly over the past few games. Minnesota counters with an offense anchored by Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Royce Lewis, relying less on explosive power and more on clutch hitting and plate discipline. Boston is 6–4 ATS in their last 10 games but has gone under the total in 8 of those 10, showing that their recent wins have come in lower-scoring contests.

Minnesota’s bullpen has quietly become a strength with Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax closing tight games, while Boston’s middle relief has been more volatile, especially in road environments. Expert projections suggest slight value on the Twins to cover the run line, given their strong recent play at home and the Red Sox’s struggles to produce runs in road matchups against right-handed starters. The total is currently set at 9.5, and sharp bettors are leaning toward the under, especially given the tendencies of both starting pitchers to limit home runs and both bullpens to settle games late. With playoff implications looming, this game carries more weight than a typical late-July tilt, and the Twins will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage and stingy bullpen to gain an edge in the series opener. If Boston wants to steal a win in Minneapolis, they’ll need a clean outing from Fitts and timely hitting with runners in scoring position—something they’ve struggled to produce consistently on the road. Minnesota, on the other hand, is built to win close games in their ballpark, and if Woods Richardson can limit early traffic on the bases, the Twins’ combination of opportunistic offense and bullpen execution could be enough to pull off a narrow win. This sets up as a tense, tactical matchup that could easily be decided by a single mistake or a clutch late-game at-bat, with Minnesota holding a slight edge thanks to their recent momentum at home and their familiarity with close, grinding contests.