The July 25, 2025 matchup between the Chicago Cubs and the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field is more than just a Crosstown Classic—it’s a collision of two franchises in drastically different phases of competition. The Cubs enter the contest with a commanding 60–42 record, placing them firmly in the postseason mix and boasting one of the most well-rounded rosters in the National League. Their recent form supports the hype, having gone 6–4 against the spread over their last 10 games and an incredible 13–1 straight up in contests where they were at least a –185 favorite. On the other side, the White Sox sit at 37–66, buried in the American League standings, yet playing with pride and purpose, particularly when underdogs. In fact, they’ve gone 8–2 ATS in their last 10 games, showing that despite their overall record, they’ve been consistently exceeding betting expectations in recent weeks. The probable pitching matchup highlights an intriguing contrast in styles and experience: the Cubs send out Shota Imanaga, a lefty with a sparkling 7–3 record and 2.40 ERA, whose pinpoint control and veteran poise has anchored Chicago’s rotation since returning from injury. The White Sox counter with right-hander Adrian Houser, who has been a surprising stabilizer, entering with a 5–2 record and 1.89 ERA in July, thriving on soft contact and timely ground balls. Offensively, the Cubs are led by rookie phenom Pete Crow-Armstrong, who’s already smashed 27 home runs, alongside Kyle Tucker, a lefty slugger batting .275 with 18 homers.

Chicago averages just over four runs per game but has the ability to explode when facing middle-inning relievers and mistake pitches. The White Sox lineup is still finding itself, but it has become more dynamic recently thanks to young stars like Colson Montgomery and Kyle Teel, plus the return of Luis Robert Jr., who immediately injects power, speed, and veteran presence into the order. Miguel Vargas has also emerged as a steady contributor, with 12 home runs and solid contact rates that have helped sustain rallies. Defensively, the Cubs are superior by most metrics, committing fewer errors and converting outs at a higher rate, while also possessing a deeper and more dependable bullpen. The White Sox, though improved lately, remain inconsistent in the field and on the mound late in games, which could spell trouble if this contest stays close into the seventh inning and beyond. From a betting standpoint, the total is set at 8.5 runs, and the matchup suggests the under could be in play, especially if both starters bring their recent form. The Cubs are the clear favorites both on paper and in the betting markets, but given the White Sox’s strong recent performance as underdogs and the unpredictable nature of rivalry games, bettors should tread carefully. This game will ultimately come down to whether Imanaga can control the tempo and if the Cubs’ power bats can get to Houser early. If Chicago’s North Side team performs to form, they should win and likely cover, but the White Sox have shown just enough recent grit to keep this city series closer than expected.