The Baltimore Orioles arrive at Progressive Field for the series finale against the Cleveland Guardians with a 44–57 record that belies the competitiveness they’ve shown in recent weeks, particularly against the spread. While the team has struggled to climb out of the AL East basement, they have shown significant improvement in July under interim manager Tony Mansolino, who took over in mid-May and has since instilled a more focused, aggressive, and resilient approach. Baltimore has gone 6–5 so far in July and an impressive 8–3 against the spread in their last 11 games, a sign that while they may not always win outright, they consistently keep games close, providing value for bettors and frustrating opponents. Key to their recent competitiveness has been the resurgence of Gunnar Henderson, who has found his stride both offensively and defensively and is now setting the tone for the lineup alongside Dylan Carlson and midseason acquisition Tyler O’Neill. O’Neill’s mix of power and veteran savvy has given the Orioles a much-needed boost in the middle of the order, while Jordan Westburg and Adley Rutschman continue to develop into reliable young contributors capable of changing the momentum of games. Pitching remains Baltimore’s most volatile area, with the rotation offering inconsistent outings that put pressure on the bullpen, but the relief corps led by Andrew Kittredge and Japanese veteran Tomoyuki Sugano has held up surprisingly well. Both relievers have shown an ability to neutralize late-inning threats, and their performance will be crucial in Cleveland, where the Guardians tend to capitalize on late rallies.

The Orioles’ strategy will likely involve small ball, aggressive baserunning, and manufacturing runs rather than relying on the long ball, especially in the spacious outfield of Progressive Field that tends to suppress home runs. Defensively, the Orioles have been average overall, but improved communication and shifts in late innings have helped them remain in close games, which is essential for a team that thrives on staying within the spread. Their head-to-head record against Cleveland entering this series stood at 2–1, showing they’re capable of stealing games from a more consistent Guardians squad, especially when their offense is clicking and their bullpen holds steady. Baltimore has nothing to lose and is playing with a chip on its shoulder, which makes them particularly dangerous as road underdogs. They’ve been able to hang around games even when trailing early and have outperformed expectations when playing as away underdogs in recent weeks. While their playoff hopes may be distant, the team has embraced its spoiler role and is leaning into developmental opportunities with a focus on building for 2026, meaning players like Henderson, Rutschman, and Grayson Rodriguez are gaining valuable experience in high-leverage moments. For bettors, Baltimore’s knack for keeping games close and covering the run line even in losses is a key trend, and with momentum and energy shifting in the clubhouse under Mansolino, this is not the same Orioles team from April or May. Their combination of grit, emerging talent, and bullpen stability suggests they will remain competitive deep into this matchup, and possibly push Cleveland to the edge once again in a game that is far from a guaranteed win for the home team.