The Minnesota Twins enter this July 21 matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers with hopes of reversing their underwhelming road form and showcasing the depth that has occasionally surfaced during the 2025 campaign. Sitting with a subpar road record of 20–31, the Twins have struggled to find consistency when away from Target Field, particularly against playoff-caliber opponents like the Dodgers. David Festa gets the nod for Minnesota, and while the young right-hander shows glimpses of top-end stuff, his 3–3 record with a 5.25 ERA and 1.31 WHIP reveals some of the command and durability issues that have plagued him in starts against elite competition. Festa’s ability to navigate through the top of the Dodgers’ lineup—especially the Betts-Freeman-Ohtani trio—will determine whether he can make it out of the middle innings without damage. Minnesota’s offense, while capable, leans heavily on Byron Buxton, who continues to be the spark plug at the top of the order with both power and speed, and Trevor Larnach, who has quietly been one of the team’s more consistent run producers. However, depth remains an issue, and inconsistent performances from the lower half of the lineup have left too many runners stranded in key situations. The Twins’ bullpen has been up and down as well, showing late-inning resilience in some games but faltering under pressure in others. Their path to an upset win likely includes a tightly managed game plan that gets five to six competitive innings from Festa, followed by aggressive bullpen usage with favorable matchups against the Dodgers’ left-handed bats.

Defensively, Minnesota has been clean but not spectacular, so they’ll need to avoid unforced errors that could extend innings for the potent Dodgers lineup. Historically, interleague games on the road have been challenging for the Twins, especially when facing strong pitching, and Shohei Ohtani fits that mold perfectly after a recent dominant outing in which he struck out 10 and walked none. For Minnesota to break through, they may need to force Ohtani out of the game early by working counts and driving up his pitch total—an area where they’ve struggled at times this season. The Twins’ recent ATS trends also paint a challenging picture, having covered in just two of their last seven games, and their record in matchups as notable underdogs doesn’t inspire much betting confidence. Still, if Buxton can ignite the offense early and Festa avoids big innings, the Twins could keep this game competitive longer than expected. Buxton’s health and form are always an X-factor, and when he’s aggressive on the bases and making highlight-reel plays in the outfield, Minnesota tends to play with more energy and confidence. The Twins will also need strong situational hitting—moving runners over, capitalizing with men in scoring position, and limiting strikeouts in key moments—which has been a hit-or-miss aspect of their offense this year. Another player to watch is Edouard Julien, who’s flashed the ability to change the game with one swing and has seen recent success against right-handed pitching. Still, against a team as complete and explosive as the Dodgers, the margin for error is thin, and the Twins have not been the most disciplined or fundamentally sound team when the stakes are highest. For Minnesota to deliver an upset, they must control the tempo of the game and keep the Dodgers’ stars from delivering early momentum. They’ll also have to show resilience if they fall behind, which has been a struggle this season—they’re one of the lowest-ranked teams in MLB in comeback wins. If Festa can neutralize the top third of L.A.’s lineup and the Twins can scratch across a couple of early runs, they could force the Dodgers into high-leverage bullpen decisions earlier than planned. Otherwise, the likely scenario is that Minnesota finds itself playing catch-up against one of the league’s most dangerous offenses, which could expose their bullpen depth and late-game vulnerabilities. In short, the Twins have a narrow path to victory that hinges on pitching efficiency, timely hitting, and mistake-free defense—all of which must come together in near-perfect sync against a team that rarely beats itself.