The Chicago Cubs enter their July 21, 2025, matchup against the Kansas City Royals at Wrigley Field riding a wave of late-summer momentum that has kept them firmly in the hunt for the National League Central crown. Under the leadership of manager Craig Counsell, the Cubs have found a rhythm built on strong pitching, improved defensive fundamentals, and an increasingly balanced lineup that has learned to grind out games with professional at-bats. At the center of this consistency is a starting rotation that has outperformed expectations, with Japanese lefty Shota Imanaga and veteran Jameson Taillon anchoring a staff that ranks in the top ten in ERA and quality starts. The bullpen has also taken significant strides from last season’s inconsistency, as Julian Merryweather and Adbert Alzolay have embraced high-leverage roles with increased command and pitch efficiency. Offensively, the Cubs are seeing encouraging signs from young players like Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alexander Canario, while established bats such as Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, and Seiya Suzuki continue to deliver timely hits and work counts deep into at-bats. With Cody Bellinger’s veteran presence also adding maturity to the lineup, Chicago has become harder to pitch to than in previous seasons, showing versatility against both power arms and finesse pitchers. Wrigley Field remains a decisive advantage, where the Cubs’ home splits show a notable bump in OBP, slugging, and run production, and their comfort playing in front of packed crowds is evident in their body language and pace of play.

Defensively, Chicago has become one of the more dependable teams in the league, with clean double-play execution, smart shifts, and athletic outfield coverage that limits extra bases. The Cubs’ approach is rarely flashy, but it’s effective, and when they build early leads, they tend to close games confidently and without unnecessary drama. Betting-wise, they’ve been one of the more profitable teams at home against non-contending or sub-.500 opponents, especially when favored by 1.5 runs. The total for this game may lean under if wind patterns at Wrigley favor pitchers, and Chicago has proven capable of adapting to low-scoring contests just as well as offensive showcases. Facing a Royals team that has been inconsistent and vulnerable in late innings, the Cubs will look to capitalize early with pressure on the bases and opportunistic hitting, often setting the tone within the first three frames. The game plan will likely be to get into Kansas City’s bullpen by the sixth inning, where the advantage leans heavily toward the home team. If the Cubs continue their sharp fielding and strike early with runs, they’ll be tough to catch on a day when playoff positioning adds urgency to every inning. In short, Chicago is well-positioned not only to win but also to cover, especially if their frontline starters command the zone and avoid letting the Royals’ speed game become a factor. This is a Cubs team with a clear identity and the confidence to execute it, and they’ll look to put it on display again in a favorable Sunday matinee at home.