Red Sox vs. Phillies
Prediction, Odds & Props
Jul 21 | MLB AI Picks

Updated: 2025-07-19T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

Boston (53–47) rolls into Philadelphia on the heels of recent ATS success and aims to stay above .500, while the Phillies (55–42) are atop the NL East and looking to reinforce home dominance. Philadelphia is favored (~ –140 ML, –1.5 run line), and the total is set around 8.5 runs, indicating a moderately paced matchup.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Jul 21, 2025

Start Time: 6:45 PM EST​

Venue: Citizens Bank Park​

Phillies Record: (56-43)

Red Sox Record: (54-47)

OPENING ODDS

BOS Moneyline: +174

PHI Moneyline: -212

BOS Spread: +1.5

PHI Spread: -1.5

Over/Under: 8.5

BOS
Betting Trends

  • Boston is 49–47 against the run line overall this season and has covered 4 of their last 6 games, showing steadiness as road competitors.

PHI
Betting Trends

  • The Phillies are strong ATS at home, holding a solid record behind their consistent pitching staff and stadium advantage.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Philadelphia’s last five wins at home have produced totals under 8 runs, illustrating that they often shut down opponents in low-scoring affairs when they succeed.

BOS vs. PHI
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: K. Schwarber over 0.5 Total Bases.

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Boston vs Philadelphia Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 7/21/25

The upcoming matchup on July 21, 2025, between the Boston Red Sox and the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park promises to be a compelling interleague showdown between two postseason hopefuls, each bringing unique strengths into the contest. Boston, sitting just above .500, continues to rely on a deep, aggressive lineup that ranks among the top in extra-base hits and runs scored, while Philadelphia enters the game with one of the best records in the National League and a well-rounded roster built around elite pitching and clutch hitting. Zack Wheeler is the projected starter for the Phillies, and he enters with a sparkling 2.36 ERA and a 9–3 record, consistently delivering quality starts and eating innings efficiently with his deadly mix of high-velocity fastballs and command-oriented sliders. On the other side, Boston sends Kutter Crawford to the mound, a capable right-hander just back from the injured list who has shown flashes of solid command and competitive toughness, though his overall numbers suggest a middle-of-the-rotation ceiling. Wheeler will face a Red Sox offense led by the likes of Wilyer Abreu, Rafael Devers, and Ceddanne Rafaela, a trio that combines power, speed, and the ability to grind out at-bats—traits that will be essential in wearing down a dominant starter. Trevor Story has also added some clutch pop in recent games, and Boston’s ability to string together base runners against elite pitching will be tested.

Philadelphia counters with a strong offensive nucleus of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, and Alec Bohm, and while they haven’t always relied on home runs to win games, they’ve been efficient with runners in scoring position and can manufacture offense in multiple ways. The Phillies’ bullpen has also been a stabilizing force, with José Alvarado and Orion Kerkering anchoring the late innings, allowing manager Rob Thomson to confidently shorten games when the team holds a late lead. Boston’s relief corps, featuring Garrett Whitlock and Kenley Jansen, has been more volatile but can be effective when the starters hand over a clean slate. Defensively, both clubs are generally solid, though Philadelphia has a slight edge in infield range and outfield arm strength, which could matter in a game where every extra base counts. ATS trends favor the Phillies at home, particularly in low-scoring games where Wheeler controls the tempo and the defense limits opportunities. Boston, however, has quietly covered in four of its last six games and has proven it can keep games competitive on the road even when not favored. The key battle will be early—in the first three innings—as Boston will try to chip away at Wheeler before he settles in and dominates, while the Phillies will look to take advantage of any early command issues from Crawford. If the game remains close into the later innings, managerial decisions around bullpen matchups and pinch hitters could swing the outcome. In what is expected to be a tightly contested affair with playoff-level intensity, the Phillies have the slight edge thanks to home-field advantage and a true ace on the mound, but the Red Sox should not be counted out if their offense gets rolling early.

Boston Red Sox MLB Preview

The Boston Red Sox enter their July 21, 2025, road clash against the Philadelphia Phillies with momentum on their side and a renewed sense of urgency as they continue to fight for positioning in a competitive AL Wild Card race. With a current record hovering just above .500, Boston has shown resilience through a long season filled with injury setbacks and pitching inconsistencies, yet their offense has remained a reliable engine. Leading the charge are Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Rafael Devers—players who have all contributed in different ways to the team’s offensive strength. Abreu has flashed both power and patience, providing clutch hits and working deep counts, while Rafaela adds a dynamic element of speed and small ball execution that keeps defenses on edge. Devers continues to be a threat in the middle of the order with his ability to drive the ball out of the park or spray line drives to the gaps. Trevor Story has also looked more comfortable at the plate, bringing veteran leadership and timely hits that help ignite rallies. On the mound, Kutter Crawford is expected to make the start after returning from the injured list. His performance is a pivotal question mark—when healthy, he can navigate lineups with an effective mix of a four-seamer, cutter, and changeup, but he has also been prone to inconsistency in longer outings. For Boston to have a realistic shot in this game, Crawford will need to pitch efficiently early and avoid high pitch counts that could tax the bullpen too soon.

That bullpen, while talented, has had stretches of volatility; Kenley Jansen’s closer role has been a mixed bag, and setup options like Josh Winckowski and Greg Weissert have been inconsistent, though they have also flashed brilliance at times. Defensively, Boston is athletic and capable, particularly up the middle with Rafaela and Story combining for strong double-play potential and range. Their outfield coverage has also been reliable, cutting off extra bases and supporting their pitchers with above-average positioning. Against Zack Wheeler and a tough Phillies offense, Boston’s margin for error will be slim. They’ll need to get on the board early, remain aggressive on the basepaths, and make every inning count. Despite being underdogs on the road, the Red Sox have covered the run line in four of their last six games and have shown a knack for staying within striking distance of elite teams. Their ability to adapt to game flow—whether slugging it out or grinding through a pitchers’ duel—makes them a dangerous and capable road opponent. With several key players heating up and the offense clicking more often than not, Boston will look to pull off an interleague upset and carry that energy forward through the rest of their road trip. They may not have the superior pitching matchup on paper, but their bats and defensive execution give them a viable blueprint to push Philadelphia to the brink and potentially steal a tightly contested game.

Boston (53–47) rolls into Philadelphia on the heels of recent ATS success and aims to stay above .500, while the Phillies (55–42) are atop the NL East and looking to reinforce home dominance. Philadelphia is favored (~ –140 ML, –1.5 run line), and the total is set around 8.5 runs, indicating a moderately paced matchup. Boston vs Philadelphia AI Prediction: Free MLB Betting Insights for Jul 21. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Philadelphia Phillies MLB Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies return to Citizens Bank Park on July 21, 2025, with their sights set on another statement win as they continue to hold firm as one of the National League’s most complete and dangerous clubs. Sitting atop the NL East with one of the league’s best records, the Phillies have built their success on elite starting pitching, timely offense, and consistent execution in late-game situations. Zack Wheeler will be on the mound, and he enters the contest as one of the most dominant arms in baseball this season, sporting a 2.36 ERA with a 9–3 record and an elite WHIP that underscores his ability to limit baserunners and control innings. Wheeler’s pitch mix—particularly his high-90s fastball and biting slider—has kept hitters off balance all year, and he thrives on setting the tempo early while attacking the strike zone with precision. Backing him is a deep and clutch lineup that has shown the ability to score in a variety of ways, from small ball tactics to game-changing home runs. Bryce Harper remains the emotional and statistical anchor, delivering big hits and high-leverage leadership, while Kyle Schwarber adds raw power and on-base savvy from the top of the order. J.T. Realmuto, Alec Bohm, and Bryson Stott provide offensive depth and defensive stability, forming one of the most balanced lineups in the NL.

Defensively, the Phillies are a polished unit, especially in the infield where Trea Turner’s return has fortified both range and double-play efficiency, giving Wheeler even more confidence to pitch to contact when needed. The bullpen has also become a real weapon for Philadelphia, with José Alvarado returning to form and Orion Kerkering emerging as a reliable late-inning presence. Manager Rob Thomson has done an excellent job managing bullpen matchups, allowing the Phillies to lock down leads with consistency. Philadelphia has also been particularly strong at home, where they’ve covered the run line in seven of their last ten games and thrive off the energy of one of the most passionate fanbases in baseball. Facing Boston’s Kutter Crawford, a solid but less dominant starter, the Phillies will look to apply early pressure by forcing long at-bats and making him work through traffic. If they can build a lead in the early innings, Wheeler is more than capable of carrying it deep into the game, and with a rested bullpen, the game plan sets up perfectly for a clean, low-scoring victory. With momentum, depth, and ace-level pitching all trending in their favor, the Phillies are well-positioned not only to win this game but to further entrench themselves as serious contenders with postseason aspirations. In a matchup that pits power and polish against potential and inconsistency, Philadelphia has the edge in nearly every category and will look to capitalize fully in front of their home crowd with playoff-caliber focus and execution.

Boston vs. Philadelphia Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of stats on each line. In fact, anytime the Red Sox and Phillies play there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at Citizens Bank Park in Jul rarely follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: K. Schwarber over 0.5 Total Bases.

Boston vs. Philadelphia Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over tons of data from every past game between the Red Sox and Phillies and using recursive machine learning and impressive AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.

Remi has been most keyed in on the unproportionally assigned emphasis human bettors tend to put on coaching factors between a Red Sox team going up against a possibly healthy Phillies team. In reality, the true game analytics might reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line in particular.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our MLB AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Boston vs Philadelphia picks, computer picks Red Sox vs Phillies, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full MLB schedule.

Red Sox Betting Trends

Boston is 49–47 against the run line overall this season and has covered 4 of their last 6 games, showing steadiness as road competitors.

Phillies Betting Trends

The Phillies are strong ATS at home, holding a solid record behind their consistent pitching staff and stadium advantage.

Red Sox vs. Phillies Matchup Trends

Philadelphia’s last five wins at home have produced totals under 8 runs, illustrating that they often shut down opponents in low-scoring affairs when they succeed.

Boston vs. Philadelphia Game Info

Boston vs Philadelphia starts on July 21, 2025 at 6:45 PM EST.

Spread: Philadelphia -1.5
Moneyline: Boston +174, Philadelphia -212
Over/Under: 8.5

Boston: (54-47)  |  Philadelphia: (56-43)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: K. Schwarber over 0.5 Total Bases.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

Philadelphia’s last five wins at home have produced totals under 8 runs, illustrating that they often shut down opponents in low-scoring affairs when they succeed.

BOS trend: Boston is 49–47 against the run line overall this season and has covered 4 of their last 6 games, showing steadiness as road competitors.

PHI trend: The Phillies are strong ATS at home, holding a solid record behind their consistent pitching staff and stadium advantage.

See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Boston vs. Philadelphia Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through tons of stats on each team. In fact, anytime the Boston vs Philadelphia trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme travel distance rarely follow normal, predictable betting trends.

Boston vs Philadelphia Opening Odds

BOS Moneyline: +174
PHI Moneyline: -212
BOS Spread: +1.5
PHI Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 8.5

Boston vs Philadelphia Live Odds

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1
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-425
 
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O 7.5 (-130)
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Sep 27, 2025 4:11PM EDT
New York Mets
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-140
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Detroit Tigers
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+100
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U 8.5 (-110)
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Chicago White Sox
Washington Nationals
9/27/25 5:05PM
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-105
-115
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+1.5 (-180)
O 8.5 (-115)
U 8.5 (-105)
Sep 27, 2025 6:05PM EDT
Minnesota Twins
Philadelphia Phillies
9/27/25 6:05PM
Twins
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+185
-225
+1.5 (-110)
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O 8.5 (-115)
U 8.5 (-105)
Sep 27, 2025 7:11PM EDT
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
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+110
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O 8 (-110)
U 8 (-110)
Sep 27, 2025 7:15PM EDT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Atlanta Braves
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+145
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O 8 (-105)
U 8 (-115)
Sep 27, 2025 7:16PM EDT
Texas Rangers
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9/27/25 7:16PM
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U 7 (+100)
Sep 27, 2025 8:40PM EDT
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
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+130
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U 7.5 (-115)
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Los Angeles Angels
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-145
+120
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U 9 (-110)
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Seattle Mariners
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+100
-120
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O 7 (-115)
U 7 (-105)
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Oakland Athletics
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+100
-120
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O 10 (-115)
U 10 (-105)
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+144
-172
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O 9 (-122)
U 9 (+100)

MLB Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies on July 21, 2025 at Citizens Bank Park.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
ARI@SD SD -131 57.3% 4 WIN
DET@BOS BOS -115 56.4% 5 WIN
NYM@CHC NYM -110 54.1% 3 WIN
HOU@ATH ATH +118 50.8% 4 WIN
NYM@CHC OVER 7 54.5% 3 WIN
STL@SF OVER 7.5 55.9% 5 LOSS
KC@LAA TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@SD UNDER 9 54.7% 4 WIN
MIA@PHI KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 53.3% 3 WIN
WAS@NYM OVER 8.5 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAA@COL COL +108 50.5% 3 WIN
TOR@KC UNDER 9 54.7% 4 LOSS
SEA@KC KC +1.5 62.3% 5 LOSS
NYY@MIN OVER 9 55.1% 4 WIN
MIA@COL OVER 10.5 55.0% 4 WIN
MIA@COL AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.3% 4 WIN
SEA@KC BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES 54.4% 4 LOSS
PHI@LAD LAD -113 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYY@BOS OVER 7.5 54.3% 3 WIN
KC@PHI PHI -130 58.3% 4 WIN
LAD@SF OVER 7.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYM@PHI PHI -122 55.6% 4 WIN
KC@CLE KC -104 52.0% 3 WIN
CIN@SD JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS 53.1% 3 WIN
WAS@MIA MIA -123 55.2% 4 LOSS
LAA@KC UNDER 9.5 54.9% 3 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9 54.2% 4 WIN
SF@COL UNDER 11.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
SF@COL RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES 56.1% 6 WIN
MIA@WAS WAS -110 54.4% 4 WIN
NYM@DET OVER 8.5 54.5% 4 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9.5 56.4% 6 WIN
TEX@ARI ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.1% 4 LOSS
ATL@CHC CHC -116 55.1% 3 WIN
PHI@MIL OVER 8.5 55.0% 3 WIN
ARI@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES 54.2% 4 WIN
SEA@CLE CLE +1.5 57.2% 3 WIN
CHC@SF CHC -105 54.1% 4 LOSS
NYY@CHW RYAN MCMAHON OVER 0.5 BASES 54.1% 4 WIN
PHI@NYM OVER 8.5 55.6% 4 LOSS
LAA@TEX LOGAN OHOPPE OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.1% 4 LOSS
KC@CHW KC -109 54.2% 4 WIN
SD@SEA DYLAN CEASE OVER 16.5 OUTS 53.9% 3 LOSS
SD@SEA UNDER 8.5 54.4% 4 LOSS
MIN@TOR JOE RYAN UNDER 2.5 EARNED RUNS 54.1% 4 LOSS
SF@MIL MIL +100 54.0% 6 LOSS
TOR@MIA MIA +1.5 62.0% 6 WIN
CHC@LAA OVER 9.5 54.9% 4 LOSS
BOS@NYY CARLOS RODON UNDER 4.5 HITS ALLOWED 54.2% 4 WIN
KC@DET DET -115 56.1% 5 WIN
CHC@LAA LAA +1.5 57.6% 5 LOSS