The Cleveland Guardians return home to Progressive Field on Monday to open their series against the Baltimore Orioles, looking to take advantage of a favorable pitching matchup and build on flashes of recent offensive momentum. While their overall record has hovered slightly below .500, the Guardians have performed better than their record suggests in games where they’re favored, especially at home, and they will lean on right-hander Logan Allen to help set the tone. Allen, known for his ability to generate ground balls and eat innings efficiently, enters the game with an ERA near the low 4.00s and has shown improvement in his last few starts, particularly when working with early run support. The Guardians’ offense has been trending upward in July, especially at home, with players like Steven Kwan and José Ramírez sparking multi-run innings with aggressive at-bats and smart baserunning. Ramírez continues to be the engine of the offense, delivering with runners in scoring position and offering both power and contact at the heart of the lineup. Behind him, Will Brennan and Josh Naylor have delivered timely hits, while the bench depth has provided added flexibility against both right- and left-handed pitching. Cleveland’s defense remains one of the most efficient in the league, particularly in turning double plays and limiting extra bases, which could be a key factor against a Baltimore lineup that depends heavily on speed and situational offense.

On the mound, Allen will be tasked with keeping the Orioles’ top hitters like Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander off balance by mixing his sinker with a sharp-breaking slider, aiming to avoid hard contact and induce early-count outs. The bullpen, though inconsistent in recent weeks, has performed better at home, with Emmanuel Clase still among the most trusted closers in the American League when given a clean ninth inning. Setup relievers like Trevor Stephan and Sam Hentges will be crucial in bridging the gap from Allen to Clase, especially if the Guardians are clinging to a narrow lead late in the game. From a gameplan perspective, Cleveland must emphasize plate discipline early against Baltimore starter Tomoyuki Sugano, who thrives on command and soft contact—if they can work deep counts and force pitches over the plate, they could turn what’s expected to be a pitchers’ duel into a breakout night. The Guardians will also look to capitalize on home-field advantage, where their lineup typically generates more traffic and energy, particularly in the middle innings. If Allen can deliver six solid innings and the bullpen avoids traffic, Cleveland’s edge in defensive consistency and late-inning execution may give them the upper hand. In a tightly projected game with a total of 8.5 runs, the Guardians’ focus will be on clean defense, aggressive at-bats, and timely pitching—areas they’ve historically excelled in when playing as slight home favorites. With playoff contention still within reach and an opportunity to start the week strong, Cleveland has all the tools to set the tone in Game 1 and protect their turf against a Baltimore team still searching for offensive consistency.