The Baltimore Orioles enter the final game of their series against the Tampa Bay Rays looking to salvage a much-needed win as their 2025 campaign continues to spiral into underperformance and inconsistency. Now sitting at 37–48, the Orioles have struggled mightily in July, losing key ground in both the division and the Wild Card standings due to a combination of untimely injuries, cold bats, and inconsistent pitching. Their road woes are particularly glaring—Baltimore holds one of the worst ATS road records in the league this season, covering the run line in just 30 of their 73 games so far, and their offensive production away from Camden Yards has been limited by a reliance on streaky hitting and lack of clutch situational play. Despite these issues, the Orioles still feature some key players capable of swinging games in their favor, notably shortstop Gunnar Henderson, who has emerged as one of the team’s few bright spots, showcasing both power and defensive consistency. Outfielder Colton Cowser has provided decent protection behind him in the lineup, while Cedric Mullins adds dynamic speed and energy, though both have struggled with consistency. The pitching staff, once seen as a young group with upside, has been hit hard by injuries, with Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez both sidelined, leaving the team dependent on aging veteran Charlie Morton and Japanese import Tomoyuki Sugano, both of whom have flashed moments of brilliance but lack sustained dominance.

Baltimore’s bullpen has also faltered under pressure, unable to protect late leads or keep close games within reach, leading to several late-inning collapses that have severely impacted both morale and momentum. From a betting perspective, the Orioles have failed to deliver as underdogs, a position they often find themselves in, especially on the road, and their 40–55 overall ATS record reflects the lack of competitive edge in one-run games. Manager Brandon Hyde has shuffled the batting order and tried to manufacture runs through bunting, hit-and-run tactics, and aggressive baserunning, but those efforts have largely fallen flat without consistent production from the middle of the order. For Sunday’s matchup, Baltimore will likely need to keep the game within a single run and try to capitalize on a defensive mistake or timely extra-base hit to stay competitive, especially against a Tampa Bay squad that excels in bullpen usage and late-inning execution. If they can get five quality innings from their starter—potentially Morton—they might have a chance to lean on the top of their lineup and scratch across just enough offense to make it interesting. However, unless the Orioles can overcome their persistent run-scoring issues and find a way to stifle Tampa Bay’s lefty-heavy lineup, they risk dropping yet another series and falling even further behind in the AL East standings. With time slipping away and the trade deadline approaching, this game could serve as a bellwether for the Orioles’ trajectory moving forward—either a morale-boosting win to build upon or another tough loss in a season that has delivered more disappointment than hope.