The Washington Nationals return home to Nationals Park on Friday, July 18, to open a three-game series against the contending San Diego Padres, looking to defy the odds and spoil the momentum of a team gunning for the playoffs. Sitting at 38–58, the Nationals are well removed from postseason contention in the NL East but continue to use the remainder of the season as a developmental platform for their young core while trying to recapture the competitive energy that brought them a World Series title just a few years ago. Their 3–4 ATS record in their last seven home games reflects the inconsistency that’s plagued the team all season—flashes of resilience on offense and improved defense often undone by a thin bullpen, short starting outings, and a lack of power at the plate. Expected to start on the mound is one of their mid-rotation arms, likely left-hander MacKenzie Gore or righty Jake Irvin, each of whom has had stretches of success this year. Gore has the edge in strikeout potential but struggles with command at times, while Irvin offers more ground ball reliability and pitches to contact, which could be risky against a Padres lineup known for grinding out at-bats and punishing mistakes. Offensively, the Nationals have a lineup that leans into contact and small-ball rather than home run power, and although they’ve lacked consistency, they have shown flashes of situational strength. Keibert Ruiz, CJ Abrams, and Luis García Jr. have all contributed at different points during the season, with Abrams in particular showing improvements in his plate discipline and ability to work the count.

Joey Meneses remains a veteran stabilizer in the middle of the order, but his power numbers have dipped, leaving Washington to rely more on rallies and base hits than on the long ball. Their .240 team batting average at home is serviceable, but a lack of walks and a high ground-ball rate often limit their run production. The team has tried to compensate with aggressive baserunning—Abrams and Lane Thomas can steal bases and disrupt pitchers—but that strategy has also led to outs on the bases and cost them innings. The defense has been steady, with Abrams and García forming a young but growing middle-infield duo, and the outfield has been generally competent in tracking balls down and preventing big innings. Where Washington has faltered most frequently is in the bullpen: inconsistency in late innings has cost them several close games, and without a dominant closer, they’ve relied on matchups and situational arms to get through the eighth and ninth. Manager Dave Martinez continues to look for the right combinations, but depth remains a concern, especially when the starter doesn’t go deep. Against a disciplined Padres lineup that makes few mistakes and capitalizes on bullpen fatigue, Washington’s relievers will be under pressure from the moment the starter exits. For the Nationals to win, they’ll need six quality innings from their starter, tight defense, and timely hitting with runners in scoring position. This means manufacturing runs with bunts, steals, and hit-and-runs—tools they’ve used with mixed results. If they fall behind early, a comeback becomes far more difficult given their limited home-run threat and late-inning vulnerabilities. That said, playing at home and facing a Padres team traveling cross-country could give them a small edge in the early innings, and if they can capitalize on that momentum and keep the game close into the late frames, they’ll have a chance to pull off an upset and prove that, despite the record, this Nationals team still has fight left in it.