Phillies vs Padres Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS MLB Lines & Props (Jul 12)

Updated: 2025-07-10T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

On Saturday, July 12, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies (54–40) visit the San Diego Padres (51–43) for Game 2 of their three-game series, with first pitch at 10:10 p.m. ET. San Diego enters as the slight favorite (around −150 on both the moneyline and −1.5 run line), with the total set near 7.5 runs.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Jul 12, 2025

Start Time: 7:35 PM EST​

Venue: Petco Park​

Padres Record: (51-43)

Phillies Record: (54-40)

OPENING ODDS

PHI Moneyline: -150

SD Moneyline: +125

PHI Spread: -1.5

SD Spread: +1.5

Over/Under: 7.5

PHI
Betting Trends

  • Philadelphia has gone 2–3 in its last five games, but as favorites they are just about 7–4 ATS in their last eleven starts.

SD
Betting Trends

  • San Diego is approximately .500 ATS for the season and has gone 4–7 ATS in their last eleven games.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • The OVER has hit in the past five head-to-head matchups and has gone over in eight of the last twelve Phillies home games.

PHI vs. SD
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: K. Schwarber over 0.5 Total Bases.

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Philadelphia vs San Diego Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 7/12/25

Saturday night’s matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and the San Diego Padres at Petco Park pits two National League contenders in a crucial interdivisional battle with significant postseason implications as both clubs jockey for playoff positioning ahead of the All-Star break. The Phillies enter with a 54–40 record and one of the strongest pitching rotations in the league, headlined by ace Zack Wheeler, who will be on the mound for this game. Wheeler has been outstanding this season with a 9–3 record, 2.17 ERA, and a WHIP hovering near 1.00, consistently delivering quality starts and rarely giving up big innings. His opponent on the mound will be Yu Darvish for the Padres, a veteran right-hander with a 4.91 ERA who has shown signs of brilliance this year but has also been inconsistent, particularly against teams with strong top-of-the-lineup hitters like the Phillies. Both teams have dynamic offensive weapons and strong bullpens, making this matchup a chess match between two clubs built for October and currently on a collision course in the standings. The Phillies have been propelled by a potent offense led by Kyle Schwarber, who is on pace for a 40+ home run season, and Trea Turner, who has been hitting for average while continuing to bring elite speed and defense. Bryce Harper, who has remained healthy this year, continues to be the emotional anchor of the lineup, while young players like Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott have taken steps forward, making the lineup deep and dangerous from top to bottom.

Philadelphia’s offensive metrics are impressive, averaging nearly 4.6 runs per game and ranking in the top 10 in both slugging and on-base percentage. Their defense has also held up well, and their bullpen—anchored by José Alvarado and Seranthony Domínguez—has been among the most reliable late-game groups in the National League. The Phillies are strong on the road and have consistently found ways to win tight contests, especially when Wheeler starts, with the team going 8–2 in his last ten outings. Despite dropping Friday night’s opener, they’ve remained profitable against the spread as an underdog, especially in lower-scoring matchups like this one is expected to be. San Diego, meanwhile, is 51–43 and playing strong baseball at home, where their pitching staff boasts one of the league’s best home ERAs. The Padres’ offense has been keyed by the return of Fernando Tatís Jr., who has posted a .277 average since rejoining the lineup and adds both power and athleticism to a group that includes Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Jake Cronenworth. Their ability to string together hits and capitalize on mistakes makes them especially dangerous at Petco Park, even against high-level pitching like Wheeler’s. Darvish remains a capable starter despite the inflated ERA, and the Padres’ bullpen—led by closer Robert Suárez and setup man Wandy Peralta—has kept them in games consistently. With two postseason-caliber teams squaring off, this game likely comes down to execution in high-leverage spots and which team’s stars rise to the occasion. Given the Phillies’ strong track record behind Wheeler and their offensive consistency, they may have a slight edge, but San Diego’s home-field advantage and bullpen strength ensure that this one could go down to the final out.

Philadelphia Phillies MLB Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies come into Saturday’s game against the San Diego Padres with a 54–40 record and a sense of urgency to get back on track after dropping the series opener Friday night. The Phillies have been one of the more consistent teams in the National League this season, thanks largely to their elite starting rotation, reliable bullpen, and an offense capable of exploding on any given night. Zack Wheeler will get the start and serves as the Phillies’ anchor on the mound, boasting a 9–3 record, 2.17 ERA, and a WHIP under 1.00. Wheeler has been particularly dominant in high-leverage situations, striking out hitters at a top-five rate in the league while limiting walks and home runs. With him on the mound, Philadelphia has a tangible edge, especially in road games where he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts. On offense, Kyle Schwarber leads the charge with over 30 home runs, and Bryce Harper has delivered steady production, hitting above .280 with an OPS around .900. Trea Turner provides speed and infield range while contributing a respectable average and stolen base threat at the top of the lineup. The supporting cast—Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh—has stepped up throughout the season, making Philadelphia’s lineup a tough out from top to bottom. Philadelphia’s offensive metrics show a balanced attack—they rank in the top ten in OPS and on-base percentage and are averaging about 4.6 runs per game. Their aggressive approach at the plate has paid off, especially in the first five innings, where they’ve routinely jumped on starting pitchers early.

The Phillies’ bullpen has also held its own, particularly with José Alvarado in the closer role and Seranthony Domínguez and Jeff Hoffman bridging the middle innings. They’ve blown fewer saves than most contending teams and remain among the better units in terms of inherited runners stranded. On defense, the Phillies have improved their fundamentals and range, with few costly errors and smart baserunning helping them manufacture runs and protect leads. In terms of betting, Philadelphia has gone 7–4 ATS in their last eleven games as favorites and has covered well behind Wheeler, especially in games where they’re undervalued on the moneyline. The OVER has also trended up in Phillies games due to their power-hitting tendencies, even though Wheeler often keeps scores low when he’s on the hill. Saturday’s game will likely hinge on whether the Phillies can get to Yu Darvish early and if Wheeler can neutralize the dangerous middle of San Diego’s order. If Philadelphia can manufacture a lead in the first half of the game and allow their bullpen to handle the rest, they’ll be in great shape to even the series and continue pressing their advantage in a highly competitive National League playoff picture. The Phillies know they have the tools and the pitching advantage on Saturday—it’s simply a matter of execution and timing.

On Saturday, July 12, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies (54–40) visit the San Diego Padres (51–43) for Game 2 of their three-game series, with first pitch at 10:10 p.m. ET. San Diego enters as the slight favorite (around −150 on both the moneyline and −1.5 run line), with the total set near 7.5 runs. Philadelphia vs San Diego AI Prediction: Free MLB Betting Insights for Jul 12. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

San Diego Padres MLB Preview

The San Diego Padres will take the field on Saturday night against the Philadelphia Phillies with confidence and momentum, sitting at 51–43 and having secured a solid win in Friday’s series opener. With a strong home-field presence at Petco Park, where they’ve consistently played above .500, the Padres have built their success around a balanced lineup, clutch bullpen work, and improved situational hitting. Yu Darvish is scheduled to start for San Diego and, while his season ERA sits at a bloated 4.91, he’s been notably more effective at home and has historically performed well against top-tier offenses. Darvish still possesses elite command and a deep pitch mix, and if he can locate early and avoid giving up the long ball, he’ll have a solid chance to quiet a potent Phillies lineup. The Padres’ offense, led by a healthy and reenergized Fernando Tatís Jr., is firing on all cylinders with dynamic threats in both the heart and the bottom of the order. Tatís Jr. has returned to form since rejoining the team, slashing .277/.406/.374 over the past few weeks, and his presence has boosted the entire lineup, especially Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, who benefit from increased pitches to hit when pitchers are forced to work around Tatís. Offensively, the Padres have shown consistency in key areas—they rank near the top of the National League in team batting average and are well above league average in runs per game, particularly when playing at home. Machado and Bogaerts remain reliable in the clutch, while Jake Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim have provided much-needed depth and on-base skills.

The Padres have also embraced an aggressive approach on the bases, with Kim and Tatís among the team leaders in stolen bases, helping manufacture runs even when the big bats are quiet. San Diego’s bullpen has arguably been the best in the National League over the last six weeks, anchored by flame-throwing closer Robert Suárez, who has converted 27 straight save chances, and reinforced by setup men like Wandy Peralta and Adrian Morejon, who have delivered consistently clean innings. That bullpen strength has allowed the Padres to close out tight games and cover late-game spreads, even when the offense doesn’t erupt early. Defensively, San Diego has excelled thanks to improved glove work from the infield and plus arms in the outfield, helping limit extra-base hits and capitalize on defensive shifts. In betting terms, while the Padres have struggled slightly ATS (4–7 over their last eleven), their home dominance, bullpen reliability, and recent form have kept them competitive in most matchups. The total going OVER in five of their last head-to-heads with Philadelphia suggests a trend toward higher-scoring contests, though Saturday’s pitching matchup may alter that dynamic. If Darvish can navigate the Phillies’ power hitters through the first two turns of the lineup and San Diego gets early offense from Tatís or Machado, the Padres will be in strong position to claim their second win of the series. With postseason implications intensifying, San Diego knows each win counts, and Saturday’s matchup provides a chance to further assert themselves in the National League playoff chase.

Philadelphia vs. San Diego Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through tons of datapoints on each team. In fact, anytime the Phillies and Padres play there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at Petco Park in Jul almost always follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: K. Schwarber over 0.5 Total Bases.

Philadelphia vs. San Diego Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over tons of data from every angle between the Phillies and Padres and using recursive machine learning and impressive AI to crunch the data to a single cover probability.

Remi has been most keyed in on the growing weight knucklehead sportsbettors often put on San Diego’s strength factors between a Phillies team going up against a possibly strong Padres team. It appears the true game analytics might reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line in particular.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our MLB AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Philadelphia vs San Diego picks, computer picks Phillies vs Padres, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
MLB 10/20 SEA@TOR UNLOCK THIS PICK 2 INTEL Locked INTEL
MLB 10/20 SEA@TOR UNLOCK THIS PICK 0 INTEL Locked INTEL

These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full MLB schedule.

Phillies Betting Trends

Philadelphia has gone 2–3 in its last five games, but as favorites they are just about 7–4 ATS in their last eleven starts.

Padres Betting Trends

San Diego is approximately .500 ATS for the season and has gone 4–7 ATS in their last eleven games.

Phillies vs. Padres Matchup Trends

The OVER has hit in the past five head-to-head matchups and has gone over in eight of the last twelve Phillies home games.

Philadelphia vs. San Diego Game Info

Philadelphia vs San Diego starts on July 12, 2025 at 7:35 PM EST.

Spread: San Diego +1.5
Moneyline: Philadelphia -150, San Diego +125
Over/Under: 7.5

Philadelphia: (54-40)  |  San Diego: (51-43)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: K. Schwarber over 0.5 Total Bases.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

The OVER has hit in the past five head-to-head matchups and has gone over in eight of the last twelve Phillies home games.

PHI trend: Philadelphia has gone 2–3 in its last five games, but as favorites they are just about 7–4 ATS in their last eleven starts.

SD trend: San Diego is approximately .500 ATS for the season and has gone 4–7 ATS in their last eleven games.

See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Philadelphia vs. San Diego Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of data points on each team. In fact, anytime the Philadelphia vs San Diego trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme hostile environments can often follow normal, predictable patterns.

Philadelphia vs San Diego Opening Odds

PHI Moneyline: -150
SD Moneyline: +125
PHI Spread: -1.5
SD Spread: +1.5
Over/Under: 7.5

Philadelphia vs San Diego Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Oct 24, 2025 8:00PM EDT
Los Angeles Dodgers
Toronto Blue Jays
10/24/25 8PM
Dodgers
Blue Jays
-148
+126
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-137)
O 7.5 (+100)
U 7.5 (-122)

MLB Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres on July 12, 2025 at Petco Park.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
TOR@SEA OVER 7 54.9% 3 WIN
LAD@MIL UNDER 7.5 56.6% 6 WIN
TOR@NYY OVER 8 54.9% 4 WIN
TOR@NYY CARLOS RODON OVER 1.5 TOTAL WALKS ALLOWED 53.3% 3 WIN
NYY@TOR OVER 7.5 54.8% 2 WIN
LAD@PHI OVER 7 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC CHC -109 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC OVER 7.5 54.5% 4 LOSS
SD@CHC CHC -111 54.8% 4 LOSS
CIN@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 1.5 BASES 53.5% 3 WIN
BOS@NYY OVER 7 53.8% 3 LOSS
CIN@LAD ELLY DE LA CRUZ OVER 0.5 BASES 54.4% 4 LOSS
ARI@SD SD -131 57.3% 4 WIN
DET@BOS BOS -115 56.4% 5 WIN
NYM@CHC NYM -110 54.1% 3 WIN
HOU@ATH ATH +118 50.8% 4 WIN
NYM@CHC OVER 7 54.5% 3 WIN
STL@SF OVER 7.5 55.9% 5 LOSS
KC@LAA TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@SD UNDER 9 54.7% 4 WIN
MIA@PHI KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 53.3% 3 WIN
WAS@NYM OVER 8.5 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAA@COL COL +108 50.5% 3 WIN
TOR@KC UNDER 9 54.7% 4 LOSS
SEA@KC KC +1.5 62.3% 5 LOSS
NYY@MIN OVER 9 55.1% 4 WIN
MIA@COL OVER 10.5 55.0% 4 WIN
MIA@COL AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.3% 4 WIN
SEA@KC BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES 54.4% 4 LOSS
PHI@LAD LAD -113 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYY@BOS OVER 7.5 54.3% 3 WIN
KC@PHI PHI -130 58.3% 4 WIN
LAD@SF OVER 7.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYM@PHI PHI -122 55.6% 4 WIN
KC@CLE KC -104 52.0% 3 WIN
CIN@SD JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS 53.1% 3 WIN
WAS@MIA MIA -123 55.2% 4 LOSS
LAA@KC UNDER 9.5 54.9% 3 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9 54.2% 4 WIN
SF@COL UNDER 11.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
SF@COL RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES 56.1% 6 WIN
MIA@WAS WAS -110 54.4% 4 WIN
NYM@DET OVER 8.5 54.5% 4 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9.5 56.4% 6 WIN
TEX@ARI ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.1% 4 LOSS
ATL@CHC CHC -116 55.1% 3 WIN
PHI@MIL OVER 8.5 55.0% 3 WIN
ARI@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES 54.2% 4 WIN
SEA@CLE CLE +1.5 57.2% 3 WIN
CHC@SF CHC -105 54.1% 4 LOSS
NYY@CHW RYAN MCMAHON OVER 0.5 BASES 54.1% 4 WIN