Mets vs Royals Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS MLB Lines & Props (Jul 12)

Updated: 2025-07-10T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

On Saturday, July 12, 2025, the New York Mets (54–41) visit the Kansas City Royals (46–49) at Kauffman Stadium for the middle game of their interleague series. New York is a slight favorite at roughly –128 on the moneyline (implying ~56% win probability), with the Royals at +108 and the total set at 9.5 runs.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Jul 12, 2025

Start Time: 4:10 PM EST​

Venue: Kauffman Stadium​

Royals Record: (46-49)

Mets Record: (54-41)

OPENING ODDS

NYM Moneyline: -129

KC Moneyline: +108

NYM Spread: -1.5

KC Spread: +1.5

Over/Under: 9.5

NYM
Betting Trends

  • New York is struggling ATS, going just 3–7 over their last ten games as favorites this season.

KC
Betting Trends

  • Kansas City has beaten the moneyline as underdogs 28 times in 60 such games this year (~46.7%), and the Royals overall are 6–4 in their last ten games.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • In the Mets’ last ten games, the OVER hit seven times against a 9.5-run total—indicating this matchup could lean toward higher scoring.

NYM vs. KC
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: B. Witt over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI.

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New York Mets vs Kansas City Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 7/12/25

Saturday’s matchup between the New York Mets and the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium features two clubs in very different states of urgency and rhythm as the first half of the season winds down. The Mets arrive with a 54–41 record and their eyes on postseason positioning, while the Royals continue to exceed expectations with a 46–49 mark that has kept them in fringe Wild Card contention. Despite their record, Kansas City has performed admirably at home and as underdogs, winning 28 of 60 games in which they were not favored. Meanwhile, the Mets have faltered ATS recently, going just 3–7 in their last ten games as favorites, raising red flags around their consistency despite a talented and deep roster. New York continues to deal with injuries to key players such as Jesse Winker and Starling Marte, though they’ve relied on depth options like Mark Vientos and Jared Young to fill in gaps, with Vientos stepping into the DH role and providing much-needed offensive spark. Pete Alonso remains a cornerstone, and with Francisco Lindor achieving his 1,500th career hit earlier this season, the top half of the Mets’ order remains dangerous. Still, the Mets have recently leaned heavily on their bullpen, which boasts a 3.36 team ERA—one of the best in the league—but faces wear-and-tear concerns as starters have struggled to pitch deep into games. Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea are both on the verge of returning but will not factor into Saturday’s contest, which means the Mets may piece together innings from the back end of the rotation and pen.

On the Royals’ side, veteran right-hander Michael Wacha is likely to start, offering experience and recent success including a 1,500 career innings milestone and several quality starts this year. Offensively, Kansas City is paced by Salvador Pérez, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Bobby Witt Jr., who collectively provide a mix of power, speed, and clutch hitting. The Royals have been particularly feisty in one-run games and have shown the ability to capitalize on defensive lapses and bullpen struggles from their opponents, a trend that could prove crucial against a Mets team with a bullpen that’s worked a heavy load. The over has hit in seven of the Mets’ last ten games, with most totals set at or around 9.5 runs, suggesting that high-scoring outcomes have become common, and if the Royals can produce timely hits, this could be another slugfest. The matchup sets up as a fascinating blend of top-tier talent versus underdog grit, and while the Mets have the edge in power and postseason experience, Kansas City’s ability to grind out wins at home and remain dangerous through all nine innings gives them a real chance to even the series. If the Mets jump out early and their bullpen holds, they could cruise, but if Wacha keeps them at bay and the Royals’ offense pounces on middle-inning relievers, this could swing quickly in favor of the home team. Either way, it’s a pivotal contest for two teams with postseason aspirations navigating different levels of pressure and expectations.

New York Mets Mets MLB Preview

The New York Mets enter Saturday’s game against the Kansas City Royals with a 54–41 record and the challenge of maintaining their momentum in the crowded National League playoff race despite a recent slide against the spread. They’ve dropped seven of their last ten ATS as favorites, a surprising trend given their talent and the firepower they boast in their lineup, but a deeper look shows the team is currently patching holes due to nagging injuries. Jesse Winker, who had just returned to the lineup, has landed back on the injured list with back discomfort, while veteran outfielder Starling Marte is dealing with a lingering knee issue, making his status uncertain. These absences have forced the Mets to dig into their depth, recalling players like Jared Young and leaning more heavily on Mark Vientos, who is expected to be the designated hitter against Royals right-hander Michael Wacha. Pete Alonso continues to be the offensive anchor, now tied for third in Mets franchise history with 243 RBIs, and Francisco Lindor remains a steady two-way presence, having notched his 1,500th career hit earlier this season. On the mound, the Mets’ starting situation is still unsettled for Saturday, but it’s expected they will turn to a bullpen-heavy strategy, possibly featuring long relief options like Joey Lucchesi or Tylor Megill depending on matchups.

Their bullpen has been one of the best in baseball with a 3.36 ERA, but it has also been taxed due to inconsistent length from starters and the absence of rotation stalwarts like Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea, both of whom are nearing returns but not yet available. The Mets have been effective at manufacturing runs in spurts, and when they’re clicking, they can hang crooked numbers quickly, especially with the top of the order producing at a high clip. However, their recent OVER trends—hitting in seven of their last ten games when the total is set at 9.5—point to volatility in both run prevention and scoring, which could be concerning against a Royals team that thrives in tight contests. Defensively, the Mets have been solid, though fatigue from bullpen overuse has at times led to late-game lapses, and in a hostile road environment like Kauffman Stadium, those cracks can become game-changers. New York’s path to victory Saturday lies in jumping ahead early and forcing the Royals to play from behind, a situation in which Kansas City has struggled. If the Mets get a strong performance from whoever starts on the mound and can get five or more clean innings before handing it off to their high-leverage arms, they’ll be in a strong position. But if their offense sputters or they allow the Royals to dictate pace with aggressive base running and timely hits, another ATS loss—and potentially an outright one—could be added to their record. The Mets have the experience and depth, but they need a cleaner, more composed performance to avoid a trap game loss and keep pace in a tightening NL East race.

On Saturday, July 12, 2025, the New York Mets (54–41) visit the Kansas City Royals (46–49) at Kauffman Stadium for the middle game of their interleague series. New York is a slight favorite at roughly –128 on the moneyline (implying ~56% win probability), with the Royals at +108 and the total set at 9.5 runs. New York Mets vs Kansas City AI Prediction: Free MLB Betting Insights for Jul 12. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Kansas City Royals MLB Preview

The Kansas City Royals enter Saturday’s home matchup against the New York Mets with a 46–49 record, a team quietly gaining momentum and relevance as the second half of the season approaches. While their record still hovers below .500, the Royals have exceeded expectations in both effort and execution, going 6–4 in their last ten games and showing resilience, especially when playing at Kauffman Stadium. They’ve also performed well against the spread in games where they’ve been underdogs, winning 28 of 60 such contests—an impressive mark for a team not favored by oddsmakers. One of the keys to their competitiveness has been the consistency of veteran right-hander Michael Wacha, who is projected to start Saturday’s game. Wacha has quietly put together a strong campaign and recently passed 1,500 career innings, delivering reliable starts that have stabilized the rotation. His experience and command will be vital against a Mets lineup that can do damage quickly if not handled with care. Offensively, Kansas City leans on a balanced lineup featuring Salvador Pérez and Vinnie Pasquantino, who have combined for nearly 30 home runs and over 100 RBIs so far this season, along with Bobby Witt Jr., who brings both elite speed and dynamic defense. Witt has taken another step forward this year, flashing five-tool capability and consistently impacting games in multiple ways, whether it’s on the base paths, at the plate, or in the field. The Royals have also benefited from solid contributions from players like MJ Melendez and Maikel Garcia, who help lengthen the lineup and give opposing pitchers little margin for error.

The bullpen has been inconsistent at times but has improved in recent weeks, with arms like James McArthur and John Schreiber stepping into more defined roles. Against a Mets squad that has struggled to cover the spread in recent weeks and is dealing with injuries to key players like Jesse Winker and Starling Marte, the Royals have a legitimate opportunity to capitalize, especially if Wacha can keep the game close through the middle innings. Kansas City will look to manufacture runs with aggressive base running and smart situational hitting, traits that have allowed them to win low-scoring contests and pressure opposing defenses. Defensively, they’ve cleaned things up after some early-season missteps, and their improved fielding has been a big reason why they’ve stayed competitive in so many close games. A big crowd is expected for the Saturday matchup, and the Royals feed off that energy, often playing their sharpest baseball at home. If their offense can strike early and Wacha settles in, they could take full advantage of a Mets team that has leaned too heavily on its bullpen and has struggled to maintain consistency on the road. Kansas City may not have the superstar names of their counterparts, but their mix of veteran leadership, young talent, and underdog grit makes them a dangerous opponent, especially in games like this where momentum and execution matter just as much as raw talent. With the All-Star break around the corner, the Royals know that a strong showing against a playoff-caliber team could swing the momentum of their season in a big way.

New York Mets vs. Kansas City Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of datapoints on each player. In fact, anytime the Mets and Royals play there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at Kauffman Stadium in Jul seemingly never follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: B. Witt over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI.

New York Mets vs. Kansas City Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports algorithm, has been pouring over tons of data from every past game between the Mets and Royals and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to boil down the data to a single cover probability.

Remi has been most keyed in on the linear correlation of emphasis knucklehead sportsbettors tend to put on player performance factors between a Mets team going up against a possibly deflated Royals team. Trends look to say the true game analytics might reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line in particular.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our MLB AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI New York Mets vs Kansas City picks, computer picks Mets vs Royals, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
MLB 10/20 SEA@TOR UNLOCK THIS PICK 2 INTEL Locked INTEL
MLB 10/20 SEA@TOR UNLOCK THIS PICK 0 INTEL Locked INTEL

These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full MLB schedule.

Mets Betting Trends

New York is struggling ATS, going just 3–7 over their last ten games as favorites this season.

Royals Betting Trends

Kansas City has beaten the moneyline as underdogs 28 times in 60 such games this year (~46.7%), and the Royals overall are 6–4 in their last ten games.

Mets vs. Royals Matchup Trends

In the Mets’ last ten games, the OVER hit seven times against a 9.5-run total—indicating this matchup could lean toward higher scoring.

New York Mets vs. Kansas City Game Info

New York Mets vs Kansas City starts on July 12, 2025 at 4:10 PM EST.

Spread: Kansas City +1.5
Moneyline: New York Mets -129, Kansas City +108
Over/Under: 9.5

New York Mets: (54-41)  |  Kansas City: (46-49)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: B. Witt over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

In the Mets’ last ten games, the OVER hit seven times against a 9.5-run total—indicating this matchup could lean toward higher scoring.

NYM trend: New York is struggling ATS, going just 3–7 over their last ten games as favorites this season.

KC trend: Kansas City has beaten the moneyline as underdogs 28 times in 60 such games this year (~46.7%), and the Royals overall are 6–4 in their last ten games.

See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

New York Mets vs. Kansas City Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through tons of data points on each team. In fact, anytime the New York Mets vs Kansas City trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme altitude almost always follow normal, predictable patterns.

New York Mets vs Kansas City Opening Odds

NYM Moneyline: -129
KC Moneyline: +108
NYM Spread: -1.5
KC Spread: +1.5
Over/Under: 9.5

New York Mets vs Kansas City Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Oct 24, 2025 8:00PM EDT
Los Angeles Dodgers
Toronto Blue Jays
10/24/25 8PM
Dodgers
Blue Jays
-143
+130
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-140)
O 7.5 (+105)
U 7.5 (-125)

MLB Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers New York Mets Mets vs. Kansas City Royals on July 12, 2025 at Kauffman Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
TOR@SEA OVER 7 54.9% 3 WIN
LAD@MIL UNDER 7.5 56.6% 6 WIN
TOR@NYY OVER 8 54.9% 4 WIN
TOR@NYY CARLOS RODON OVER 1.5 TOTAL WALKS ALLOWED 53.3% 3 WIN
NYY@TOR OVER 7.5 54.8% 2 WIN
LAD@PHI OVER 7 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC CHC -109 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC OVER 7.5 54.5% 4 LOSS
SD@CHC CHC -111 54.8% 4 LOSS
CIN@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 1.5 BASES 53.5% 3 WIN
BOS@NYY OVER 7 53.8% 3 LOSS
CIN@LAD ELLY DE LA CRUZ OVER 0.5 BASES 54.4% 4 LOSS
ARI@SD SD -131 57.3% 4 WIN
DET@BOS BOS -115 56.4% 5 WIN
NYM@CHC NYM -110 54.1% 3 WIN
HOU@ATH ATH +118 50.8% 4 WIN
NYM@CHC OVER 7 54.5% 3 WIN
STL@SF OVER 7.5 55.9% 5 LOSS
KC@LAA TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@SD UNDER 9 54.7% 4 WIN
MIA@PHI KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 53.3% 3 WIN
WAS@NYM OVER 8.5 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAA@COL COL +108 50.5% 3 WIN
TOR@KC UNDER 9 54.7% 4 LOSS
SEA@KC KC +1.5 62.3% 5 LOSS
NYY@MIN OVER 9 55.1% 4 WIN
MIA@COL OVER 10.5 55.0% 4 WIN
MIA@COL AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.3% 4 WIN
SEA@KC BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES 54.4% 4 LOSS
PHI@LAD LAD -113 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYY@BOS OVER 7.5 54.3% 3 WIN
KC@PHI PHI -130 58.3% 4 WIN
LAD@SF OVER 7.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYM@PHI PHI -122 55.6% 4 WIN
KC@CLE KC -104 52.0% 3 WIN
CIN@SD JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS 53.1% 3 WIN
WAS@MIA MIA -123 55.2% 4 LOSS
LAA@KC UNDER 9.5 54.9% 3 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9 54.2% 4 WIN
SF@COL UNDER 11.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
SF@COL RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES 56.1% 6 WIN
MIA@WAS WAS -110 54.4% 4 WIN
NYM@DET OVER 8.5 54.5% 4 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9.5 56.4% 6 WIN
TEX@ARI ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.1% 4 LOSS
ATL@CHC CHC -116 55.1% 3 WIN
PHI@MIL OVER 8.5 55.0% 3 WIN
ARI@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES 54.2% 4 WIN
SEA@CLE CLE +1.5 57.2% 3 WIN
CHC@SF CHC -105 54.1% 4 LOSS
NYY@CHW RYAN MCMAHON OVER 0.5 BASES 54.1% 4 WIN