The July 11, 2025 interleague matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Minnesota Twins at Target Field brings together two teams heading in different directions as they look to position themselves ahead of the All-Star break. The Twins, playing at home and listed as slight favorites at -119, are firmly in the AL Central race with a winning record and a core of players that continues to deliver solid performances across both sides of the ball, while the Pirates, hovering below .500 and struggling to find consistency, have dropped 8 of their last 10 against the spread and continue to suffer from erratic pitching and an underperforming offense. Minnesota’s recent play has been steadier, going 4-6 ATS in their last 10 and benefiting from the return to form of several key players, including shortstop Carlos Correa, who has been heating up at the plate after a slow start to the season. The Twins are expected to start Joe Ryan, a hard-throwing right-hander who has posted a solid strikeout rate and has done a good job minimizing damage through command and keeping hitters off balance with a deep repertoire. On the other side, the Pirates are likely to turn to Jared Jones, their exciting rookie arm who has flashed elite velocity and swing-and-miss stuff, but also shown signs of fatigue and inconsistency, particularly against more disciplined lineups like Minnesota’s. The Pirates have struggled to support their starters with timely hitting, and their recent 2-8 ATS run is a reflection of their inability to string together innings offensively, often relying too heavily on solo home runs or sporadic bursts from players like Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz.

Minnesota, meanwhile, has used a balanced offensive attack led by Ryan Jeffers, Max Kepler, and Edouard Julien, while Byron Buxton’s recent return to health has given them an additional power-speed threat in the lineup and improved their outfield defense dramatically. Both teams have bullpen concerns—especially Pittsburgh, whose late-inning relievers have blown several leads over the past month—but the Twins appear to have more reliable options late, with Jhoan Duran back in the closer’s role and Griffin Jax handling key setup duties. Defensively, the Twins are sharper, having committed fewer errors and shown stronger positioning and fundamentals, while the Pirates have been prone to mental mistakes and occasional lapses in concentration that have cost them close games. The Pirates do have a slight historical edge in the series, winning 6 of the last 10 meetings, but Minnesota’s current form, deeper rotation, and home-field advantage tilt the matchup in their favor. For the Pirates to pull off the upset, they’ll need a dominant outing from Jones, a clean defensive game, and an offensive breakout from Reynolds and Cruz to overcome a disciplined Twins squad. Minnesota, however, has been difficult to beat at home and is likely to control the tempo early if Ryan can keep the Pirates’ aggressive hitters guessing. The Twins are well-positioned to grind out a win by playing to their strengths—pitching efficiency, consistent contact hitting, and late-game bullpen execution—making this matchup a pivotal opportunity to gain ground in the division while exposing a struggling Pirates team still searching for answers.