The Arizona Diamondbacks head into Thursday’s series finale at Petco Park sitting just below the .500 mark with a 46–47 record, but with a chance to secure a meaningful road series win against a divisional rival in the San Diego Padres. This team has been one of the more enigmatic squads in the National League this year—at times flashing postseason-caliber offense, while at other moments unraveling due to pitching inconsistencies and lackluster situational hitting. Josh Naylor has become the offensive cornerstone for Arizona, leading the club with a .303 average and delivering both timely power and on-base efficiency in the heart of the order. Ketel Marte remains one of the most valuable switch-hitters in the league, providing lineup flexibility and consistent contact that Arizona desperately leans on during low-scoring stretches. Geraldo Perdomo’s emergence in the middle infield has also been a welcome surprise, especially given his knack for getting on base and scoring runs. However, it’s the pitching that continues to define the ceiling of this roster. Eduardo Rodriguez, Thursday’s projected starter, has endured a rocky 2025 campaign marked by a 3–5 record and 5.78 ERA, frequently struggling with command and giving up hard contact early in games. His ability to find the strike zone early and induce ground balls will be pivotal against a disciplined Padres lineup.

The bullpen has had its own issues, ranking in the bottom third of the National League in ERA, and too often has allowed inherited runners to score, undermining strong outings from the rotation. That said, the Diamondbacks have shown mental toughness on the road recently, including a dramatic ninth-inning rally earlier in this series, which speaks to the resilience manager Torey Lovullo has instilled in the clubhouse. While their overall road record is middling, they’ve quietly covered the spread in five of their last seven road games and historically perform well at Petco Park, covering in 13 of their last 18 games in San Diego. Offensively, the Diamondbacks will need to stay patient at the plate, extending at-bats and working counts to get into the Padres’ bullpen early, where matchups may tilt slightly in Arizona’s favor. Defensively, the team has been efficient with minimal errors, but has struggled to contain the running game—a vulnerability that San Diego could exploit. If Rodriguez can deliver a serviceable start and Arizona’s bats can cash in with runners in scoring position, the Diamondbacks have the tools to pull off another series win and gain valuable momentum heading into the All-Star break. But if they fall behind early or continue their bullpen woes, they’ll likely fall back into the familiar territory of near-miss mediocrity that has dogged them all season. For a team still clinging to wildcard aspirations in a wide-open NL playoff chase, this game represents more than just a single win—it’s a tone-setting opportunity to show they can compete and close out tough series on the road.