The July 9, 2025 matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium wraps up a three-game series that has leaned heavily in favor of the Royals, who have won the first two contests and are poised for a potential sweep. Entering the finale, Kansas City sits at 44-48, just outside the AL Wild Card conversation but building valuable momentum heading into the All-Star break with a strong stretch that has seen them go 5-1 against the spread in their last six games. The Royals’ recent success has stemmed from a resurgent offense led by Bobby Witt Jr., who continues to show elite tools at the plate and on the basepaths, and veteran catcher Salvador Pérez, whose leadership and timely hitting have been instrumental in close games. On the pitching side, Kansas City has gotten quality starts from young arms like Noah Cameron, who allowed just one earned run over six innings in the series opener, and a bullpen that has held firm in late innings, capitalizing on the Pirates’ inability to manufacture runs. Defensively, the Royals have kept mistakes to a minimum, complementing their steady pitching and opportunistic offense with clean fielding and sharp execution.

Meanwhile, the Pirates enter the game with a 38-54 record and an urgent need to find some stability before the break, particularly after dropping the first two games of the series by a combined margin of 11-3. Pittsburgh’s struggles on the road have continued—they’re 1-4 against the spread in their last five away games—and their offense has failed to produce consistent pressure, leaving runners stranded and lacking big hits in key moments. Veterans like Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen have been bright spots, providing some production and leadership, but the team has yet to see consistent performances from the rest of the lineup. Paul Skenes has shown promise in his early major league starts, while Bailey Falter has had his moments, but the Pirates’ rotation remains shaky and their bullpen depth has been tested repeatedly due to short outings from starters. Pittsburgh’s defense has also contributed to their slide, with errors at inopportune times allowing innings to extend and putting added pressure on their pitchers. With the series finale on the line, the Pirates will need to get early momentum and hope for a strong outing from whoever takes the mound, while their offense must find a way to break through against a Royals team that has been steadily improving. Historically, games at Kauffman Stadium have leaned toward lower totals, and the total has gone under in seven of Kansas City’s last eight home games, which could suggest another tight, low-scoring affair unless one side erupts offensively. The contrast between the teams’ recent form is striking—the Royals playing their best baseball in weeks and the Pirates struggling to stay afloat—and if trends hold, Kansas City could cap off a sweep that positions them well heading into the break, while Pittsburgh will be left regrouping and searching for answers during a much-needed rest.