The San Diego Padres return to Petco Park on July 9, 2025, to host the Arizona Diamondbacks in a key NL West matchup as they look to strengthen their playoff positioning and continue building on a solid 49–42 record. Their home performance has been a cornerstone of their success this season, with a 28–16 mark at Petco that reflects their comfort level and ability to capitalize on friendly confines and enthusiastic crowds. Led by manager Mike Shildt, the Padres have found ways to win close games and use their bullpen effectively when given a lead, which has helped compensate for some inconsistencies in starting pitching and offense. Right-hander Dylan Cease will take the mound looking to turn around his season after a disappointing 3–8 record and 4.62 ERA despite flashes of elite stuff; Cease has shown the ability to dominate but struggles when he falls behind in counts or leaves pitches up in the zone. Offensively, San Diego doesn’t have overwhelming power numbers, averaging just 4.08 runs per game and totaling 75 home runs as a team, but they get timely contributions from core players like Fernando Tatis Jr., who leads the team with 15 home runs and continues to set the tone both at the plate and in the field.

Manny Machado has been the club’s steadiest hitter, batting .292 and consistently driving in runs, while Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth provide invaluable defensive range and situational hitting that often keeps innings alive. The Padres’ .303 team OBP is middling by league standards, but they make up for it by maximizing opportunities with runners in scoring position, especially at home where their offense tends to come alive in the middle innings. Defensively, San Diego has committed 43 errors, which places them near the league average, though occasional lapses have led to tough losses in otherwise winnable games. Still, the bullpen, featuring names like Robert Suarez and Wandy Peralta, has done a commendable job limiting damage in late-game scenarios and has protected narrow leads effectively—especially at home where their 29–8 record when scoring five or more runs shows how dangerous they are when the bats heat up. Against an Arizona team that hits well but struggles with pitching depth and defensive consistency, the Padres will look to jump on starter Brandon Pfaadt early and put pressure on the Diamondbacks’ bullpen to cover too many innings. If Cease can give San Diego five competitive innings without surrendering multiple big hits, the bullpen and defense are typically strong enough to carry the team the rest of the way. Expect Shildt to manage aggressively with in-game matchups, especially if the Padres can get a lead and push Pfaadt into high pitch counts. With the season series tied 2–2 and both clubs jockeying for divisional momentum, the Padres have a prime opportunity to take control at home, where their track record and ability to play to the moment gives them a slight but meaningful edge.