The New York Yankees enter Tuesday’s home matchup against the Seattle Mariners with a 49–41 record and a deep sense of urgency to stabilize their recent play and reassert themselves as one of the American League’s top contenders as the All-Star break nears. Though their current record is solid, the Yankees have been uneven lately, especially against the spread, where they’ve covered in just three of their last ten games, and those ATS struggles reflect broader inconsistency in both pitching depth and run production outside of their superstars. Still, when the Yankees are rolling, they’re among the most dangerous teams in baseball, and that starts with Aaron Judge, who is putting up staggering numbers with a .360 batting average, 33 home runs, and 74 RBIs—MVP-level production that continues to anchor the offense and inspire fear in opposing pitching staffs. Judge’s dominance has made up for some offensive underperformance elsewhere in the lineup, and the addition of veterans like Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger has provided occasional bursts of power, but the Yankees are still waiting for those pieces to sync up consistently. On the mound, New York will hand the ball to rookie right-hander Will Warren (5–4, 5.02 ERA), who’s shown promise in flashes but remains a wild card against strong lineups like Seattle’s.

With injuries to Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt still impacting the rotation, the Yankees are depending on Warren to grow up quickly in the heat of a playoff push, and Tuesday’s start represents both a test and an opportunity for the young righty to prove he belongs in high-leverage spots. The bullpen remains a strength, with Clay Holmes, Tommy Kahnle, and Ian Hamilton combining to form one of the better late-inning trios in the league, and that relief core will be essential against a Mariners team that excels at turning small advantages into runs through walks, timely hits, and aggressive base running. Defensively, New York has been sharp for much of the year, with sound positioning and veteran infielders capable of making tough plays, though occasional miscues have cropped up in key moments. At Yankee Stadium, the short porch in right field looms large for left-handed power bats like Bellinger and Judge, but also poses a threat if Seattle’s lefty hitters get the barrel on a mistake pitch. For the Yankees to win Tuesday’s opener, they’ll need early offense, ideally giving Warren some cushion before turning things over to the bullpen; if they fall behind, the pressure on the rookie starter could mount quickly, and Seattle’s bullpen is strong enough to slam the door. Manager Aaron Boone will be looking to spark urgency from the first pitch, knowing a series loss here would be costly in the context of the AL East playoff picture. If the bats heat up behind Judge and Warren can provide five competitive innings, the Yankees have a clear path to victory, but they must tighten up defensively and capitalize on every scoring opportunity to hold off a surging Mariners club that won’t go away quietly.