Reds vs Phillies Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS MLB Lines & Props (Jul 06)

Updated: 2025-07-04T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies are set to conclude their three-game series at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday, July 6, 2025. The Phillies, aiming to solidify their position in the National League standings, will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage, while the Reds seek to gain momentum as the season progresses.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Jul 06, 2025

Start Time: 1:35 PM EST​

Venue: Citizens Bank Park​

Phillies Record: (52-37)

Reds Record: (46-43)

OPENING ODDS

CIN Moneyline: +191

PHI Moneyline: -235

CIN Spread: +1.5

PHI Spread: -1.5

Over/Under: 8.5

CIN
Betting Trends

  • The Reds have been competitive as underdogs, holding a 28–23 record in such situations, which ranks among the league’s best win percentages in that category.

PHI
Betting Trends

  • The Phillies have been strong at home, boasting a 28–15 record, and have performed well as moneyline favorites with a 42–24 record this season.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • The Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 77 games, indicating strong starts in games.

CIN vs. PHI
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: E. De La Cruz over 5.5 Fantasy Score.

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Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 7/6/25

Sunday’s series finale between the Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park offers a clash between a gritty underdog and a proven contender, with both clubs eyeing crucial momentum as the All-Star break nears. The Phillies, entering the game with one of the best home records in baseball, have been rock-solid in front of their fans, boasting a 28–15 mark at Citizens Bank Park and thriving in games where they’re listed as favorites. They’ll likely send out one of their more dependable arms in the rotation, as their strategy of controlling early innings has worked beautifully—Philadelphia has hit the 1st Five Innings moneyline in 41 of their last 77 games. Their offensive strength comes from a potent middle of the order packed with power hitters who are capable of flipping the game with a single swing, and they’ve shown excellent plate discipline, wearing down opposing starters and forcing early trips to the bullpen. On the other side, the Reds have carved out an identity as one of the more tenacious underdog teams in the league, winning 28 of 51 games in that role, and they’ll need every ounce of that resilience to steal a road win in a hostile environment. While their pitching staff isn’t as deep or consistent as the Phillies’, the Reds have gotten by with clutch performances and timely bullpen contributions that have helped keep them competitive in close games.

Offensively, Cincinnati blends raw athleticism with youthful energy, relying on speed, aggressive baserunning, and occasional pop to generate runs. Their young stars continue to develop, showing a better eye at the plate and more confidence in late-game situations, which has led to several come-from-behind wins. Defensively, the Reds play a clean brand of baseball when they’re locked in, but their infield and outfield communication will need to be sharp against a Phillies team that thrives on forcing pressure through contact and hustle. The key to this matchup could be which starter gets into rhythm first; if Philadelphia establishes the tone early and gets out to a quick lead, they’ll likely ride their pitching to another win, but if the Reds can hang around and keep the score tight into the later innings, they’ve proven they have the tools to turn games on their head. Oddsmakers have leaned toward the Phillies given their home success and more consistent performance across the season, but Cincinnati’s reputation as a dangerous dog should not be underestimated, particularly if their bullpen can hold the line and their bats can manufacture key hits with runners on. With series pride and standings leverage on the line, Sunday’s matchup promises a high-energy, tightly contested affair between two clubs who approach winning in vastly different but equally compelling ways.

Cincinnati Reds MLB Preview

The Cincinnati Reds enter Sunday’s finale against the Philadelphia Phillies as underdogs on paper, but their gritty playing style and ability to punch above their weight make them a dangerous opponent capable of pulling off an upset at Citizens Bank Park. At 40–47 heading into the contest, the Reds have been one of the more competitive teams in the league when not favored, boasting a 28–23 record as underdogs—a stat that reflects their mental toughness and capacity to capitalize when expectations are lower. A large part of their recent resilience has come from the progression of young talent across the roster, led by players like Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer, who’ve brought a spark to the lineup with their athleticism, power-speed combos, and evolving approach at the plate. The Reds’ offensive game plan revolves around creating chaos with aggressive baserunning, forcing pitchers into mistakes, and relying on timely extra-base hits to generate scoring chances without needing a barrage of home runs. While their lineup does have pop, particularly in the middle third, the Reds more often win through pressure—stretching singles into doubles, stealing bags, and capitalizing on defensive lapses.

On the mound, Cincinnati has managed to remain serviceable despite an inconsistent starting rotation, largely thanks to unexpected contributions from young arms and a bullpen that has quietly delivered in high-leverage spots. Whether it’s Alexis Díaz slamming the door in the ninth or setup men limiting damage with runners on, the relief corps has become a quiet strength for this club, especially when they’re able to hand over a lead in the late innings. Defense has also been a steadying factor, with improved infield range and solid outfield communication keeping opponents from gaining extra bases in crucial moments. However, the Reds still struggle at times with control issues from their starters and occasional lapses in run prevention that can snowball quickly against elite lineups like Philadelphia’s. To have a chance on Sunday, Cincinnati will need their starting pitcher to avoid early damage and get through at least five solid innings, allowing their bullpen to manage the high-leverage frames that have been their bread and butter. Offensively, getting runners on early and testing Philadelphia’s defense with speed and situational hitting will be critical, as will converting any defensive mistakes into runs. The Reds thrive when playing from ahead or in tight battles, so avoiding a big early deficit will be crucial. Despite the Phillies’ home dominance, the Reds have already proven they can hang with playoff-caliber teams this season, and if they can deliver one of their characteristic grind-it-out performances, they’re more than capable of turning this game into a late-inning dogfight. In a season that’s been defined by flashes of brilliance and learning moments, Sunday’s showdown is another chance for the Reds to prove they’re maturing into a team that can win under pressure, silence a home crowd, and inch closer to .500 in a highly competitive National League race.

The Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies are set to conclude their three-game series at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday, July 6, 2025. The Phillies, aiming to solidify their position in the National League standings, will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage, while the Reds seek to gain momentum as the season progresses. Cincinnati vs Philadelphia AI Prediction: Free MLB Betting Insights for Jul 06. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Philadelphia Phillies MLB Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies will take the field on Sunday aiming to close out their home series against the Cincinnati Reds with a decisive win, and everything about their season so far suggests they’re well-positioned to do exactly that. Sitting near the top of the National League with one of the best records in baseball, the Phillies have been especially dominant at Citizens Bank Park, entering the contest with a 28–15 home record that reflects their comfort and confidence on their own turf. Their formula for success has been well-balanced: aggressive early-game offense, quality starts from their rotation, and a bullpen that has grown more consistent as the season has progressed. Offensively, the Phillies possess a lineup that’s both dangerous and disciplined, anchored by Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Kyle Schwarber, all of whom bring veteran savvy and game-breaking power. Harper’s blend of patience and pop continues to make him one of the toughest outs in the league, while Turner’s ability to manufacture offense with speed and situational hitting adds another layer of complexity for opposing pitchers. Schwarber, meanwhile, remains a home run threat capable of shifting momentum with one swing. The Phillies also boast impressive depth, with hitters like Alec Bohm and Brandon Marsh stepping up in clutch situations, helping Philadelphia hit the 1st Five Innings Moneyline in 41 of their last 77 games—an indicator of their tendency to jump out to early leads and control tempo.

On the mound, the Phillies will likely rely on one of their top-tier starters, who have been effective at shutting down lineups early and going deep into games, reducing pressure on the bullpen. Whether it’s Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, or Ranger Suárez, Philadelphia’s rotation has provided consistent length and command, keeping games within reach and giving their offense time to strike. The bullpen, which had been shaky in past seasons, has become a more reliable unit with arms like José Alvarado and Seranthony Domínguez providing late-inning stability, capable of preserving leads and getting key outs under pressure. Defensively, the Phillies have cleaned up a lot of the miscues that plagued them in 2023 and 2024, and they now play a more fundamentally sound brand of baseball that limits extra-base opportunities and turns double plays with regularity. The key to Sunday’s game will be sticking to what’s worked: aggressive but selective hitting early, tight defense, and riding their starter deep enough to hand the ball off to a rested bullpen. While the Reds have proven to be scrappy, especially when cast as underdogs, the Phillies’ experience, depth, and track record of success at home give them a clear edge. Manager Rob Thomson has done a masterful job managing matchups, exploiting platoon advantages, and keeping the lineup fresh during a long season, and with the All-Star break approaching, the Phillies know that stacking wins now could give them the breathing room they’ll need for the stretch run. Sunday’s contest is another chance for Philadelphia to showcase why they remain one of the most complete and dangerous teams in the league, especially when defending their home turf against a young, hungry opponent.

Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of stats on each team. In fact, anytime the Reds and Phillies play there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at Citizens Bank Park in Jul seemingly never follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: E. De La Cruz over 5.5 Fantasy Score.

Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over tons of data from every simulation between the Reds and Phillies and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.

The Algorithm has been most focused on the unproportionally assigned emphasis emotional bettors tend to put on player performance factors between a Reds team going up against a possibly unhealthy Phillies team. We’ve found the true game analytics might reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line in particular.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our MLB AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Cincinnati vs Philadelphia picks, computer picks Reds vs Phillies, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full MLB schedule.

Reds Betting Trends

The Reds have been competitive as underdogs, holding a 28–23 record in such situations, which ranks among the league’s best win percentages in that category.

Phillies Betting Trends

The Phillies have been strong at home, boasting a 28–15 record, and have performed well as moneyline favorites with a 42–24 record this season.

Reds vs. Phillies Matchup Trends

The Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 77 games, indicating strong starts in games.

Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Game Info

Cincinnati vs Philadelphia starts on July 06, 2025 at 1:35 PM EST.

Spread: Philadelphia -1.5
Moneyline: Cincinnati +191, Philadelphia -235
Over/Under: 8.5

Cincinnati: (46-43)  |  Philadelphia: (52-37)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: E. De La Cruz over 5.5 Fantasy Score.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

The Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 77 games, indicating strong starts in games.

CIN trend: The Reds have been competitive as underdogs, holding a 28–23 record in such situations, which ranks among the league’s best win percentages in that category.

PHI trend: The Phillies have been strong at home, boasting a 28–15 record, and have performed well as moneyline favorites with a 42–24 record this season.

See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through tons of data points on each player. In fact, anytime the Cincinnati vs Philadelphia trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme altitude rarely follow normal, predictable betting trends.

Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Opening Odds

CIN Moneyline: +191
PHI Moneyline: -235
CIN Spread: +1.5
PHI Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 8.5

Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U

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Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies on July 06, 2025 at Citizens Bank Park.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
LAD@TOR TOR +1.5 56.7% 2 WIN
TOR@LAD TOR +1.5 55.3% 4 WIN
TOR@SEA OVER 7 54.9% 3 WIN
LAD@MIL UNDER 7.5 56.6% 6 WIN
TOR@NYY OVER 8 54.9% 4 WIN
TOR@NYY CARLOS RODON OVER 1.5 TOTAL WALKS ALLOWED 53.3% 3 WIN
NYY@TOR OVER 7.5 54.8% 2 WIN
LAD@PHI OVER 7 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC CHC -109 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC OVER 7.5 54.5% 4 LOSS
SD@CHC CHC -111 54.8% 4 LOSS
CIN@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 1.5 BASES 53.5% 3 WIN
BOS@NYY OVER 7 53.8% 3 LOSS
CIN@LAD ELLY DE LA CRUZ OVER 0.5 BASES 54.4% 4 LOSS
ARI@SD SD -131 57.3% 4 WIN
DET@BOS BOS -115 56.4% 5 WIN
NYM@CHC NYM -110 54.1% 3 WIN
HOU@ATH ATH +118 50.8% 4 WIN
NYM@CHC OVER 7 54.5% 3 WIN
STL@SF OVER 7.5 55.9% 5 LOSS
KC@LAA TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@SD UNDER 9 54.7% 4 WIN
MIA@PHI KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 53.3% 3 WIN
WAS@NYM OVER 8.5 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAA@COL COL +108 50.5% 3 WIN
TOR@KC UNDER 9 54.7% 4 LOSS
SEA@KC KC +1.5 62.3% 5 LOSS
NYY@MIN OVER 9 55.1% 4 WIN
MIA@COL OVER 10.5 55.0% 4 WIN
MIA@COL AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.3% 4 WIN
SEA@KC BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES 54.4% 4 LOSS
PHI@LAD LAD -113 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYY@BOS OVER 7.5 54.3% 3 WIN
KC@PHI PHI -130 58.3% 4 WIN
LAD@SF OVER 7.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYM@PHI PHI -122 55.6% 4 WIN
KC@CLE KC -104 52.0% 3 WIN
CIN@SD JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS 53.1% 3 WIN
WAS@MIA MIA -123 55.2% 4 LOSS
LAA@KC UNDER 9.5 54.9% 3 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9 54.2% 4 WIN
SF@COL UNDER 11.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
SF@COL RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES 56.1% 6 WIN
MIA@WAS WAS -110 54.4% 4 WIN
NYM@DET OVER 8.5 54.5% 4 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9.5 56.4% 6 WIN
TEX@ARI ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.1% 4 LOSS
ATL@CHC CHC -116 55.1% 3 WIN
PHI@MIL OVER 8.5 55.0% 3 WIN
ARI@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES 54.2% 4 WIN
SEA@CLE CLE +1.5 57.2% 3 WIN