The July 5, 2025 matchup between the Seattle Mariners and Pittsburgh Pirates at T-Mobile Park features two teams in drastically different phases of their seasons, with the Mariners chasing postseason positioning in the AL West and the Pirates trying to salvage momentum in a challenging campaign. Seattle enters this contest with a 46–42 record and riding the wave of a commanding 6–0 shutout over the Pirates the night before, showcasing their elite pitching and resurgent offense led by catcher Cal Raleigh, who blasted his 34th and 35th home runs of the season in that win, tying Ken Griffey Jr.’s franchise record for most homers before the All-Star break. That offensive power, combined with the consistency of Julio Rodríguez in the heart of the lineup, gives the Mariners a balanced attack that can change games quickly with both power and situational hitting. On the mound, Seattle will start ace Luis Castillo, who enters with a 4–5 record and a 3.55 ERA, numbers that don’t fully reflect how well he has pitched this season due to inconsistent run support. His ability to command both sides of the plate and work deep into games has been a stabilizing force for Seattle’s rotation, and against a Pirates offense that has struggled to produce on the road, Castillo has a clear opportunity to dominate.

Pittsburgh, now 38–51, finds itself fading from NL Wild Card contention, plagued by injuries, poor road performance, and an inconsistent bullpen. Their lineup, while featuring exciting young talent like Oneil Cruz and steady contributors like Bryan Reynolds, has had trouble stringing hits together and converting runners in scoring position. Mike Burrows will get the start for Pittsburgh, bringing a 1–2 record and 4.15 ERA into a tough road environment, and much will depend on whether he can keep the ball in the park against a Mariners lineup that is beginning to heat up in July. Defensively, the edge again leans Seattle’s way, as the Mariners have committed fewer errors and turned more key double plays than their Pittsburgh counterparts. From a betting perspective, the Mariners are -186 moneyline favorites and favored by 1.5 runs, while the total is set at 7.5, suggesting that oddsmakers expect another game dominated by pitching, with Seattle’s offensive burst being the difference-maker. The Pirates have been dreadful away from PNC Park with a 12–29 road record and a -43 run differential in those games, which only increases confidence in the home side’s chances to cover. While every team is capable of an upset, especially in the parity-heavy world of modern MLB, this game presents a steep challenge for Pittsburgh, who must find a way to produce early offense against a frontline starter while limiting one of the league’s hottest power hitters in Raleigh. For the Mariners, the task is simple: ride Castillo’s arm, let their big bats get to work, and stack another win in a playoff race that’s getting tighter by the day. This is the kind of game Seattle has to dominate if it wants to stay in the postseason conversation and send a message to the rest of the American League.