Red Sox vs. Nationals
Prediction, Odds & Props
Jul 05 | MLB AI Picks
Updated: 2025-07-03T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The Boston Red Sox (44–45) and the Washington Nationals (37–51) are set to clash on July 5, 2025, at Nationals Park. Both teams aim to gain momentum before the All-Star break, with the Red Sox looking to climb back to .500 and the Nationals seeking to build on their recent performances.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

GAME INFO
Date: Jul 05, 2025
Start Time: 4:05 PM EST
Venue: Nationals Park
Nationals Record: (37-51)
Red Sox Record: (44-45)
OPENING ODDS
BOS Moneyline: -110
WAS Moneyline: -109
BOS Spread: -1.5
WAS Spread: +1.5
Over/Under: 9.5
BOS
Betting Trends
- The Red Sox have a 35–38 record against the run line this season, indicating a near-even performance in covering spreads.
WAS
Betting Trends
- The Nationals have a 37–50 record against the run line this season, reflecting challenges in covering spreads at home.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- In their last 10 games, the Red Sox have a 3–7 record against the spread, while the Nationals have gone 5–5, suggesting a slight edge for Washington in recent betting performance.
BOS vs. WAS
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: T. Story over 5 Fantasy Score.
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Boston vs Washington Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 7/5/25
On the other side, the Nationals are a team in transition but not short on excitement, led by breakout star James Wood, who is slashing .290 with 23 home runs and 12 steals, while CJ Abrams continues to develop into one of the more dynamic young infielders in the league with a .286 average and a blend of power and speed. Washington has also benefited from improved situational hitting, and while their bullpen remains shaky, the team has a stellar 27–6 record when they outhit opponents, suggesting that offense is their most reliable path to success. Mitchell Parker, expected to start for the Nats, brings a 5–8 record and a 4.73 ERA into the game and will be tasked with navigating a Red Sox lineup that’s finding its rhythm. The Nationals have struggled against the run line overall, going 37–50 ATS, but have played .500 ball over their last ten and seem to be finding small improvements week by week. For both teams, this game carries importance—Boston needs to stay within reach of the AL Wild Card race, and Washington hopes to turn positive individual development into more team wins. The game could come down to which team’s starter can get through five innings without letting things spiral and which lineup can capitalize on mistakes first. Given both teams’ recent scoring trends, a high-scoring affair wouldn’t be surprising, especially if bullpens get involved early. As Boston aims to even its record and Washington looks to build on encouraging performances from its young core, this July 5th matchup promises to be a test of patience, execution, and which team can string together timely hits when it matters most.
Enjoy the rest of your 4th!
— Red Sox (@RedSox) July 4, 2025
🗒️: https://t.co/gjyArHwfoP pic.twitter.com/4MXbkyTnOc
Boston Red Sox MLB Preview
The Boston Red Sox head into their July 5, 2025 matchup against the Washington Nationals sitting at 44–45, a team perched precariously near the .500 mark and desperately seeking the consistency required to stay relevant in the American League playoff race. Their season has been a rollercoaster of offensive surges and pitching struggles, and while their lineup has started to heat up recently, the pitching remains a major area of concern. Wilyer Abreu has emerged as one of Boston’s most reliable offensive weapons, hitting .304 over his last ten games with four home runs and 15 RBIs, providing much-needed spark from the heart of the order. Trevor Story added a burst of momentum with a four-hit game earlier this week, giving hope that his bat may be coming around at a pivotal time. The Red Sox lineup, when firing on all cylinders, is capable of putting up crooked numbers in any inning, and they’ve averaged six runs per game in their last ten contests, a sign that they’re capable of outslugging teams when necessary. However, that offense has often been asked to dig the team out of early deficits, as the starting rotation has struggled to find its footing, and that starts with Walker Buehler, who will take the mound in this game with a 5–6 record and a 6.45 ERA. Once a postseason ace, Buehler has yet to regain his former dominance following injuries and inconsistency with his command, often failing to pitch deep into games and putting pressure on a bullpen that hasn’t always been able to hold leads.
Boston’s relief corps, led by Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin, has been serviceable in spots, but too often they’ve been asked to cover four or five innings, which has led to blown saves and late-inning losses. Defensively, the Red Sox have tightened up after a sloppy start to the year, though errors still pop up at key moments that can derail momentum. Manager Alex Cora continues to emphasize aggressive base running and manufacturing runs with timely situational hitting, and that approach has worked well against teams with shaky pitching staffs, something they may look to exploit against Washington’s bullpen. Despite their 3–7 record ATS over the last ten games, Boston has been competitive in most matchups and just needs a quality start from Buehler to give them a solid chance. A win in this game would not only bring them back to .500 but also set the tone heading into the All-Star break, where the front office will have to decide whether this team is a buyer, seller, or stands pat. With Abreu surging, Story warming up, and the offense coming together, the Red Sox will hope their pitching can do just enough to get them across the finish line and secure a road win against a young Nationals team still learning how to close out games. If Boston can get a lead early and hand the ball to the back end of its bullpen with a cushion, it has a real shot at walking out of Nationals Park with a series-clinching win.

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Washington Nationals MLB Preview
The Washington Nationals enter their July 5, 2025 home contest against the Boston Red Sox with a 37–51 record, a reflection of a team still in the midst of a rebuild but showing encouraging signs of development and offensive growth led by its promising young core. While the season has been marked by inconsistency and growing pains, the Nationals have begun to see their future take shape, with James Wood and CJ Abrams becoming central pieces in what the organization hopes is a competitive roster in the near future. Wood has been electric, showcasing his power and athleticism with a .290 batting average, 23 home runs, and 12 stolen bases, quickly emerging as one of the most exciting young outfielders in the game and a legitimate Rookie of the Year contender. Abrams has also delivered in his expanded role, hitting .286 with 12 home runs and 18 steals, while flashing strong glove work at shortstop and providing speed on the basepaths that regularly puts pressure on opposing defenses. Though the offense has flashes of explosion, the pitching has been a work in progress, with expected starter Mitchell Parker carrying a 5–8 record and 4.73 ERA into this game, emblematic of the team’s struggles to consistently contain opposing lineups. Parker has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly with his fastball-changeup combination, but command lapses and hard contact have limited his effectiveness, especially when pitching from behind in counts.
The Nationals’ bullpen has been another sore spot, with the team ranking near the bottom of the majors in relief ERA and often squandering close leads or allowing games to get away late. Defensively, the team has been competitive but far from perfect, with lapses in infield communication and outfield positioning contributing to their overall negative run differential. That said, Washington has posted a 27–6 record in games where they’ve outhit their opponents, proving that when the offense does its job, the team can compete—even against more talented rosters. Nationals Park continues to provide a favorable environment for young players to settle in, and the home crowd has remained supportive, understanding the bigger picture of the rebuild and appreciating the emergence of young stars like Wood and Abrams. Manager Dave Martinez has continued to emphasize patience, hustle, and situational awareness, and those efforts have begun to translate into more competitive games, even if the results haven’t always favored Washington. Against a Red Sox team with a volatile pitching staff, the Nationals’ best chance at success lies in aggressive base running, capitalizing on extra-base hits, and avoiding double plays—areas where Abrams, Wood, and fellow youngster Luis García can all make a difference. If Parker can get through five or six innings without giving up a big inning and the bullpen can string together a few clean frames, the Nationals have a realistic chance to frustrate Boston’s lineup and steal a win at home. Ultimately, while the Nationals are still a work in progress, the talent is real, and if the pieces align, they are more than capable of spoiling Boston’s hopes of climbing back to .500.
eighty eight. pic.twitter.com/zT7uH54Wf8
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) July 4, 2025
Boston vs. Washington Prop Picks (AI)
Boston vs. Washington Prediction (AI)

Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over tons of data from every simulation between the Red Sox and Nationals and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to boil down the data to a single cover probability.
Oddly enough, we’ve seen the AI has been most keyed in on the unproportionally assigned weight human bettors often put on Boston’s strength factors between a Red Sox team going up against a possibly improved Nationals team. Trends look to say the true game analytics appear to reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line in particular.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our MLB AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI Boston vs Washington picks, computer picks Red Sox vs Nationals, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
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MLB | 9/26 | DET@BOS | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 5 |
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MLB | 9/26 | BAL@NYY | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 4 |
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MLB | 9/26 | ARI@SD | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 4 |
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MLB | 9/26 | NYM@MIA | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 1 |
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MLB | 9/26 | NYM@MIA | GET FREE PICK NOW | 1 | – | |
MLB | 9/26 | COL@SF | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 0 |
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full MLB schedule.
Red Sox Betting Trends
The Red Sox have a 35–38 record against the run line this season, indicating a near-even performance in covering spreads.
Nationals Betting Trends
The Nationals have a 37–50 record against the run line this season, reflecting challenges in covering spreads at home.
Red Sox vs. Nationals Matchup Trends
In their last 10 games, the Red Sox have a 3–7 record against the spread, while the Nationals have gone 5–5, suggesting a slight edge for Washington in recent betting performance.
Boston vs. Washington Game Info
What time does Boston vs Washington start on July 05, 2025?
Boston vs Washington starts on July 05, 2025 at 4:05 PM EST.
Where is Boston vs Washington being played?
Venue: Nationals Park.
What are the opening odds for Boston vs Washington?
Spread: Washington +1.5
Moneyline: Boston -110, Washington -109
Over/Under: 9.5
What are the records for Boston vs Washington?
Boston: (44-45) | Washington: (37-51)
What is the AI best bet for Boston vs Washington?
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: T. Story over 5 Fantasy Score.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
What are Boston vs Washington trending bets?
In their last 10 games, the Red Sox have a 3–7 record against the spread, while the Nationals have gone 5–5, suggesting a slight edge for Washington in recent betting performance.
What are Boston trending bets?
BOS trend: The Red Sox have a 35–38 record against the run line this season, indicating a near-even performance in covering spreads.
What are Washington trending bets?
WAS trend: The Nationals have a 37–50 record against the run line this season, reflecting challenges in covering spreads at home.
Where can I find AI Picks for Boston vs Washington?
See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
Boston vs. Washington Odds
Remi is pouring through tons of data points on each team. In fact, anytime the Boston vs Washington trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme temps can often follow normal, predictable patterns.
Boston vs Washington Opening Odds
BOS Moneyline:
-110 WAS Moneyline: -109
BOS Spread: -1.5
WAS Spread: +1.5
Over/Under: 9.5
Boston vs Washington Live Odds
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Orioles
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–
–
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+190
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+1.5 (-105)
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O 8.5 (-120)
U 8.5 (+100)
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Chicago Cubs
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–
–
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-175
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-1.5 (+115)
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O 9.5 (-105)
U 9.5 (-115)
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Sep 27, 2025 3:09PM EDT
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–
–
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+135
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+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+135)
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O 8.5 (+100)
U 8.5 (-120)
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Sep 27, 2025 4:06PM EDT
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Washington Nationals
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White Sox
Nationals
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–
–
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+100
-120
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-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-190)
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O 8.5 (-110)
U 8.5 (-110)
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Rockies
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–
–
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+185
-225
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+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
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O 8 (-105)
U 8 (-115)
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Sep 27, 2025 4:11PM EDT
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Miami Marlins
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Mets
Marlins
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–
–
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-130
+110
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-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-150)
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O 8.5 (-110)
U 8.5 (-110)
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Sep 27, 2025 6:05PM EDT
Minnesota Twins
Philadelphia Phillies
9/27/25 6:05PM
Twins
Phillies
|
–
–
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+170
-205
|
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (+100)
|
O 8.5 (-115)
U 8.5 (-105)
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Sep 27, 2025 6:12PM EDT
Texas Rangers
Cleveland Guardians
9/27/25 6:12PM
Rangers
Guardians
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–
–
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+135
-165
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+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+140)
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O 7 (-120)
U 7 (+100)
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Sep 27, 2025 7:11PM EDT
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
9/27/25 7:11PM
Reds
Brewers
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–
–
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+125
-150
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+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+145)
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O 8 (-105)
U 8 (-115)
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Sep 27, 2025 7:15PM EDT
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Atlanta Braves
9/27/25 7:15PM
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–
–
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+140
-170
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+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+135)
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O 8 (-115)
U 8 (-105)
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Sep 27, 2025 8:40PM EDT
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
9/27/25 8:40PM
Diamondbacks
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–
–
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+115
-140
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+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+155)
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O 7.5 (-115)
U 7.5 (-105)
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Sep 27, 2025 9:41PM EDT
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Seattle Mariners
9/27/25 9:41PM
Dodgers
Mariners
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–
–
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+105
-125
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+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+170)
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O 7.5 (-110)
U 7.5 (-110)
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Sep 27, 2025 10:05PM EDT
Kansas City Royals
Oakland Athletics
9/27/25 10:05PM
Royals
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–
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-105
-115
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-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-180)
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O 10 (-110)
U 10 (-110)
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MLB Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Boston Red Sox vs. Washington Nationals on July 05, 2025 at Nationals Park.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
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LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
---|---|---|---|---|
NYM@CHC | NYM -110 | 54.1% | 3 | WIN |
HOU@ATH | ATH +118 | 50.8% | 4 | WIN |
NYM@CHC | OVER 7 | 54.5% | 3 | WIN |
STL@SF | OVER 7.5 | 55.9% | 5 | LOSS |
KC@LAA | TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
MIL@SD | UNDER 9 | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
MIA@PHI | KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS | 53.3% | 3 | WIN |
WAS@NYM | OVER 8.5 | 56.1% | 6 | LOSS |
LAA@COL | COL +108 | 50.5% | 3 | WIN |
TOR@KC | UNDER 9 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
SEA@KC | KC +1.5 | 62.3% | 5 | LOSS |
NYY@MIN | OVER 9 | 55.1% | 4 | WIN |
MIA@COL | OVER 10.5 | 55.0% | 4 | WIN |
MIA@COL | AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
SEA@KC | BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
PHI@LAD | LAD -113 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
NYY@BOS | OVER 7.5 | 54.3% | 3 | WIN |
KC@PHI | PHI -130 | 58.3% | 4 | WIN |
LAD@SF | OVER 7.5 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
NYM@PHI | PHI -122 | 55.6% | 4 | WIN |
KC@CLE | KC -104 | 52.0% | 3 | WIN |
CIN@SD | JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS | 53.1% | 3 | WIN |
WAS@MIA | MIA -123 | 55.2% | 4 | LOSS |
LAA@KC | UNDER 9.5 | 54.9% | 3 | WIN |
TEX@ARI | UNDER 9 | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
SF@COL | UNDER 11.5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |
SF@COL | RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES | 56.1% | 6 | WIN |
MIA@WAS | WAS -110 | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
NYM@DET | OVER 8.5 | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
TEX@ARI | UNDER 9.5 | 56.4% | 6 | WIN |
TEX@ARI | ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
ATL@CHC | CHC -116 | 55.1% | 3 | WIN |
PHI@MIL | OVER 8.5 | 55.0% | 3 | WIN |
ARI@LAD | SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
SEA@CLE | CLE +1.5 | 57.2% | 3 | WIN |
CHC@SF | CHC -105 | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
NYY@CHW | RYAN MCMAHON OVER 0.5 BASES | 54.1% | 4 | WIN |
PHI@NYM | OVER 8.5 | 55.6% | 4 | LOSS |
LAA@TEX | LOGAN OHOPPE OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
KC@CHW | KC -109 | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
SD@SEA | DYLAN CEASE OVER 16.5 OUTS | 53.9% | 3 | LOSS |
SD@SEA | UNDER 8.5 | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
MIN@TOR | JOE RYAN UNDER 2.5 EARNED RUNS | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
SF@MIL | MIL +100 | 54.0% | 6 | LOSS |
TOR@MIA | MIA +1.5 | 62.0% | 6 | WIN |
CHC@LAA | OVER 9.5 | 54.9% | 4 | LOSS |
BOS@NYY | CARLOS RODON UNDER 4.5 HITS ALLOWED | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
KC@DET | DET -115 | 56.1% | 5 | WIN |
CHC@LAA | LAA +1.5 | 57.6% | 5 | LOSS |
CIN@ARI | KEBRYAN HAYES STRIKEOUTS UNDER 0.5 | 56.2% | 6 | WIN |
LAD@SD | SD +110 | 50.9% | 6 | WIN |