The Chicago Cubs return home to Wrigley Field on July 4, 2025, with a 48–37 record and a four-game lead in the National League Central, entering this rivalry series against the St. Louis Cardinals with momentum, confidence, and a clear opportunity to solidify their division lead. Fresh off a three-game sweep of the Cleveland Guardians that included a dramatic 1–0 walk-off win, the Cubs have now won six of their last eight games and are playing their most consistent baseball of the season. Much of their recent success can be attributed to their balanced offensive approach, deep pitching staff, and ability to execute in tight games—traits that have made them a tough out whether at home or on the road. Wrigley Field has become a reliable haven for the Cubs, where they’ve gone 22–18 and covered the spread in four of their last five games. Colin Rea gets the start in Friday’s opener, entering with a 5–3 record and a 4.37 ERA, offering steady mid-rotation value and the ability to give the team five or six competitive innings. Chicago’s bullpen has done its part when called upon, with Adbert Alzolay converting 18 of 21 save chances and the rest of the relief corps consistently bridging late innings with limited damage. Offensively, the Cubs have had no shortage of contributors. Nico Hoerner has been a catalyst at the top of the order, mixing contact hitting with intelligent baserunning, while Seiya Suzuki continues to drive in key runs with a controlled swing and disciplined approach.

Christopher Morel, with his energy and power, has added flair to a lineup that’s built to grind out at-bats and capitalize on pitcher mistakes. The Cubs aren’t just relying on a few stars—they’re getting production throughout the order, which gives them a major edge against opponents like the Cardinals, who have been much more top-heavy and inconsistent. Defensively, Chicago has been above average, turning double plays effectively and minimizing unforced errors, which is critical in rivalry games where mistakes often decide the outcome. Manager Craig Counsell has been instrumental in keeping the club steady, employing smart bullpen management and maximizing matchups on both sides of the ball. Against the Cardinals, the Cubs know they’ll face a motivated team desperate to get back on track, but they also recognize the opportunity to not only win the series but potentially bury a divisional challenger before the All-Star break. Historically, games between these two teams are unpredictable and emotionally charged, especially on a holiday like the Fourth of July with a packed Wrigley crowd. For the Cubs, however, the formula for success remains clear—limit free passes, play clean defense, execute with runners in scoring position, and hand the ball off to a rested bullpen with the lead. If they stick to that blueprint, they’ll be in position to take another meaningful step toward a playoff return and send a strong message to the rest of the National League that the North Siders are no longer a pleasant surprise—they’re a serious threat.