The Milwaukee Brewers and Miami Marlins are set to open their Independence Day weekend series on July 4, 2025, at loanDepot Park in a matchup that pits a National League contender against a team still trying to regain its footing. The Brewers enter the game with a strong 47–37 record and a clear grip on the NL Central race, thanks to consistent production from both their lineup and a deep pitching staff that has allowed them to stay ahead of the curve in close games. Their 38–30 record against the spread reflects a club that regularly performs to expectation, even on the road, and they’ve recently notched key wins that highlight their ability to capitalize on teams with sub-.500 records. Offensively, the Brewers feature a steady lineup anchored by William Contreras and Christian Yelich, with power spread throughout the order and the ability to manufacture runs in different ways. They’ve complemented that with a rotation that includes standout performances from Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea, and a bullpen led by closer Trevor Megill that continues to lock down games with confidence. Defensively, Milwaukee has played sharp, mistake-free baseball and rarely gives opponents extra chances, a key trait against a Marlins team that has struggled to string together rallies. The Marlins, sitting at 37–45, have endured a frustrating season defined by streaky play, weak pitching depth, and injuries that have further exposed roster limitations.

Their 5.47 team ERA and 1.49 WHIP over the last several weeks underline their inability to control games from the mound, and while their lineup has shown life—particularly from Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Josh Bell—they’ve averaged just over three runs per game in their last ten outings. Despite these issues, Miami has been solid against the spread recently, going 7–3 in their last ten games, which suggests they’ve been more competitive than their record indicates. They’ll look to build on that momentum at home, where they’ve been a little steadier and could feed off a holiday crowd. For the Marlins, this game will hinge on pitching execution—limiting walks, avoiding crooked innings, and finding a way to extend their starters deep enough to keep the bullpen from unraveling. Meanwhile, the Brewers will look to do what they’ve done all year: strike early, play clean defense, and let their bullpen shorten the game. Given the Marlins’ trend of low-scoring games, with the total going UNDER in each of their last five contests, this could be a tightly contested matchup if Milwaukee doesn’t break through early. The Fourth of July setting provides both teams a stage to set the tone for the second half of the season, with the Brewers aiming to assert control in the division and the Marlins hoping to remind the league—and themselves—that they’re capable of turning things around. If both teams play to their recent form, expect Milwaukee’s consistency to prevail, though Miami’s recent ATS success suggests this one might be closer than the standings would suggest.