Reds vs Phillies Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS MLB Lines & Props (Jul 04)
Updated: 2025-07-02T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The Cincinnati Reds (45–42) and Philadelphia Phillies (51–36) open a three-game series on Friday, July 4, 2025, at Citizens Bank Park, with first pitch scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET. Andrew Abbott (7–1, 1.79 ERA) is set to start for the Reds, while the Phillies counter with a lineup featuring sluggers like Kyle Schwarber.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.
GAME INFO
Date: Jul 04, 2025
Start Time: 1:05 PM EST
Venue: Citizens Bank Park
Phillies Record: (51-36)
Reds Record: (45-42)
OPENING ODDS
CIN Moneyline: +134
PHI Moneyline: -160
CIN Spread: +1.5
PHI Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 8.5
CIN
Betting Trends
- The Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 73 games, indicating a strong trend toward lower-scoring contests.
PHI
Betting Trends
- The Phillies are 4–1 against the spread in their last 5 home games and 7–1 straight up in their last 8 home games, showcasing their dominance at Citizens Bank Park.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia’s last 8 games, suggesting a potential low-scoring affair in this matchup.
CIN vs. PHI
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: S. Steer over 0.5 Total Bases.
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Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 7/4/25
The Phillies counter with a potent offense of their own, led by Kyle Schwarber’s power and Alec Bohm’s run production, though their overall approach has skewed more conservative lately with increased emphasis on getting runners aboard and executing small-ball tactics when needed. This stylistic shift has worked to their advantage, complementing a pitching staff that ranks in the league’s top half in ERA and WHIP. With Philadelphia’s pitching tightening up and their bullpen executing well in late innings, the Reds will need to be opportunistic early in games and take advantage of any lapses. Matchups between these two clubs have often featured close margins and strategic duels, and this edition should be no different, particularly with Abbott anchoring the Reds’ hopes in the opener. The Phillies’ ability to play clean defense and apply pressure on the bases will be tested against Cincinnati’s youthful athleticism and risk-taking style. Both teams understand the importance of entering the All-Star break on a high note, and this series presents an opportunity for either side to create meaningful momentum. Whether it’s the surging Abbott silencing Philly bats or the Phillies’ deep lineup breaking through for timely runs, the opener promises to be a tone-setting affair that could influence the remainder of each team’s first-half narrative. Expect a hard-fought game shaped by pitching, timely hits, and late-inning execution in what could be a classic midsummer chess match between two playoff hopefuls.
"That's winning baseball"@mattmclain_ pic.twitter.com/1BbqcdEZG1
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) July 3, 2025
Cincinnati Reds MLB Preview
The Cincinnati Reds arrive in Philadelphia for their July 4 series opener with a 45–42 record and the firm belief that they remain in striking distance of both the NL Central lead and a Wild Card berth. Led by the sensational Andrew Abbott, who will start Friday’s game carrying a 7–1 record and an astonishing 1.79 ERA, the Reds have built a competitive identity around pitching, defense, and youthful aggression. Abbott has been a revelation in the rotation, giving Cincinnati a true frontline arm they can rely on, especially in big road matchups like this one. The Reds’ pitching staff has been particularly effective at keeping games low scoring, evident by the Game Total going UNDER in 41 of their last 73 contests, a figure that aligns with their ability to suppress runs while sometimes struggling to consistently produce offensively. That said, the offense has its standout performers, none more electric than Elly De La Cruz, who has become the heartbeat of the lineup. With 18 home runs, 57 RBIs, and elite speed, De La Cruz provides a constant threat to change the game with one swing or a daring dash on the basepaths. Around him, Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario have chipped in timely hits and productive plate appearances, but the Reds still go through stretches where scoring opportunities are squandered, often due to inexperience and poor situational execution.
One of their strengths lies in defensive flexibility, as they’ve managed to remain competitive in tight games through reliable fielding and quick infield work that takes pressure off their young arms. Manager David Bell has embraced a more aggressive approach this season, trusting young players in key situations and allowing them to develop while still competing. That development has included growing pains, particularly in the bullpen, where inconsistency from setup men and closer Alexis Díaz has led to blown leads late in games. Still, Cincinnati has shown they can hang with top-tier teams, recently taking competitive series from the Cubs and Padres. Facing a Phillies team that has dominated at home, the Reds will look to quiet the crowd early, lean on Abbott’s command and poise, and rely on the top of the lineup to generate quick offense. A key challenge will be managing high-leverage innings late in the game, especially if Philadelphia can wear down Abbott’s pitch count by the sixth or seventh. With a road record slightly above .500, Cincinnati knows this series could swing their positioning in the standings significantly, particularly with tough series against Milwaukee and Atlanta looming. If the Reds can steal Game 1 behind their ace, it could set the tone for a series upset and signal that this young club is ready to elevate from promising to postseason-ready. For now, the formula is clear: ride Abbott’s arm, let De La Cruz spark the offense, and play mistake-free baseball in a hostile environment that will demand their best execution across all nine innings.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Philadelphia Phillies MLB Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies return to Citizens Bank Park for their July 4 series opener against the Cincinnati Reds riding high with a 51–36 record and firm control of first place in the National League East. This team has flourished at home, winning seven of its last eight games in front of a loyal and raucous fan base that has embraced the club’s balanced mix of power, pitching, and veteran savvy. At the heart of Philadelphia’s success has been a well-rounded offense led by Kyle Schwarber, whose home run prowess continues to intimidate opposing pitchers, and Alec Bohm, who has quietly posted one of the team’s most consistent offensive seasons with clutch hits and smart plate appearances. Complementing them are Trea Turner and Bryce Harper, whose veteran leadership and disciplined approaches help anchor a lineup that can strike at any moment, even during games trending toward low scores, which has been the case lately. The Phillies have gone UNDER the total in seven of their last eight contests, a sign that their pitching staff is doing its job, even when the bats aren’t exploding for double-digit runs. The rotation, while not featuring a dominant ace in the mold of Zack Wheeler this season due to injury absences, has stepped up with quality outings from Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez, while the bullpen has emerged as one of the most reliable in the league.
Manager Rob Thomson has expertly handled matchups late in games, using setup men like José Alvarado and Seranthony Domínguez to bridge tight contests to the ninth inning, where Craig Kimbrel has found success as a veteran closer. Defensively, the Phillies have been solid, particularly in the infield, where Bohm and Turner have limited errors and executed clean double plays that have bailed out pitchers in traffic-heavy innings. As they prepare to face Andrew Abbott and a dangerous yet inconsistent Reds squad, Philadelphia will be looking to strike early, get into Cincinnati’s bullpen by the sixth inning, and control the tempo from there. With their home-field advantage and ability to grind out wins in close games, the Phillies have found a formula that keeps them in control late, even when the long ball isn’t flying. Their offensive depth allows them to adapt depending on pitching matchups, and in Abbott, they’ll face one of the toughest young left-handers in the league, making timely hitting and base running a priority. Perhaps the biggest reason for Philadelphia’s strong first half is how well they’ve handled pressure games—whether it’s protecting a slim lead or clawing back from early deficits, the Phillies have stayed composed and battle-tested. This series presents a chance to further their division lead before the All-Star break and possibly put distance between themselves and the chasing Braves and Mets. A strong outing in the opener would not only set the tone for the weekend but also serve as a reminder that Philadelphia is every bit the contender its record suggests, especially when playing in front of one of the most passionate home crowds in baseball.
Wheels rolled through June 🔥 pic.twitter.com/L105xveyfx
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) July 3, 2025
Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Prop Picks (AI)
Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Prediction (AI)
Remi, our AI sports algorithm, has been pouring over mountains of data from every simulation between the Reds and Phillies and using recursive machine learning and cutting-edge AI to crunch the data to a single cover probability.
Oddly enough, we’ve seen the AI has been most focused on the growing weight human bettors often put on Philadelphia’s strength factors between a Reds team going up against a possibly improved Phillies team. It appears the true game analytics might reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line in particular.
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Below is our current AI Cincinnati vs Philadelphia picks, computer picks Reds vs Phillies, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
| DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACTIVE PICKS LOCKED - SEE NOW | ||||||
These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full MLB schedule.
Reds Betting Trends
The Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 73 games, indicating a strong trend toward lower-scoring contests.
Phillies Betting Trends
The Phillies are 4–1 against the spread in their last 5 home games and 7–1 straight up in their last 8 home games, showcasing their dominance at Citizens Bank Park.
Reds vs. Phillies Matchup Trends
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia’s last 8 games, suggesting a potential low-scoring affair in this matchup.
Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Game Info
What time does Cincinnati vs Philadelphia start on July 04, 2025?
Cincinnati vs Philadelphia starts on July 04, 2025 at 1:05 PM EST.
Where is Cincinnati vs Philadelphia being played?
Venue: Citizens Bank Park.
What are the opening odds for Cincinnati vs Philadelphia?
Spread: Philadelphia -1.5
Moneyline: Cincinnati +134, Philadelphia -160
Over/Under: 8.5
What are the records for Cincinnati vs Philadelphia?
Cincinnati: (45-42) | Philadelphia: (51-36)
What is the AI best bet for Cincinnati vs Philadelphia?
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: S. Steer over 0.5 Total Bases.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
What are Cincinnati vs Philadelphia trending bets?
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia’s last 8 games, suggesting a potential low-scoring affair in this matchup.
What are Cincinnati trending bets?
CIN trend: The Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 73 games, indicating a strong trend toward lower-scoring contests.
What are Philadelphia trending bets?
PHI trend: The Phillies are 4–1 against the spread in their last 5 home games and 7–1 straight up in their last 8 home games, showcasing their dominance at Citizens Bank Park.
Where can I find AI Picks for Cincinnati vs Philadelphia?
See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Odds
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of data on each player. In fact, anytime the Cincinnati vs Philadelphia trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme altitude almost always follow normal, predictable patterns.
Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Opening Odds
CIN Moneyline:
+134 PHI Moneyline: -160
CIN Spread: +1.5
PHI Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 8.5
Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Live Odds
| Games | PTS | ML | SPR | O/U |
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MLB Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies on July 04, 2025 at Citizens Bank Park.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
| LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD@TOR | TOR +1.5 | 56.7% | 2 | WIN |
| TOR@LAD | TOR +1.5 | 55.3% | 4 | WIN |
| TOR@SEA | OVER 7 | 54.9% | 3 | WIN |
| LAD@MIL | UNDER 7.5 | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
| TOR@NYY | OVER 8 | 54.9% | 4 | WIN |
| TOR@NYY | CARLOS RODON OVER 1.5 TOTAL WALKS ALLOWED | 53.3% | 3 | WIN |
| NYY@TOR | OVER 7.5 | 54.8% | 2 | WIN |
| LAD@PHI | OVER 7 | 53.8% | 3 | WIN |
| SD@CHC | CHC -109 | 53.8% | 3 | WIN |
| SD@CHC | OVER 7.5 | 54.5% | 4 | LOSS |
| SD@CHC | CHC -111 | 54.8% | 4 | LOSS |
| CIN@LAD | SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 1.5 BASES | 53.5% | 3 | WIN |
| BOS@NYY | OVER 7 | 53.8% | 3 | LOSS |
| CIN@LAD | ELLY DE LA CRUZ OVER 0.5 BASES | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
| ARI@SD | SD -131 | 57.3% | 4 | WIN |
| DET@BOS | BOS -115 | 56.4% | 5 | WIN |
| NYM@CHC | NYM -110 | 54.1% | 3 | WIN |
| HOU@ATH | ATH +118 | 50.8% | 4 | WIN |
| NYM@CHC | OVER 7 | 54.5% | 3 | WIN |
| STL@SF | OVER 7.5 | 55.9% | 5 | LOSS |
| KC@LAA | TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
| MIL@SD | UNDER 9 | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
| MIA@PHI | KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS | 53.3% | 3 | WIN |
| WAS@NYM | OVER 8.5 | 56.1% | 6 | LOSS |
| LAA@COL | COL +108 | 50.5% | 3 | WIN |
| TOR@KC | UNDER 9 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
| SEA@KC | KC +1.5 | 62.3% | 5 | LOSS |
| NYY@MIN | OVER 9 | 55.1% | 4 | WIN |
| MIA@COL | OVER 10.5 | 55.0% | 4 | WIN |
| MIA@COL | AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
| SEA@KC | BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
| PHI@LAD | LAD -113 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
| NYY@BOS | OVER 7.5 | 54.3% | 3 | WIN |
| KC@PHI | PHI -130 | 58.3% | 4 | WIN |
| LAD@SF | OVER 7.5 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
| NYM@PHI | PHI -122 | 55.6% | 4 | WIN |
| KC@CLE | KC -104 | 52.0% | 3 | WIN |
| CIN@SD | JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS | 53.1% | 3 | WIN |
| WAS@MIA | MIA -123 | 55.2% | 4 | LOSS |
| LAA@KC | UNDER 9.5 | 54.9% | 3 | WIN |
| TEX@ARI | UNDER 9 | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
| SF@COL | UNDER 11.5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |
| SF@COL | RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES | 56.1% | 6 | WIN |
| MIA@WAS | WAS -110 | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
| NYM@DET | OVER 8.5 | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
| TEX@ARI | UNDER 9.5 | 56.4% | 6 | WIN |
| TEX@ARI | ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
| ATL@CHC | CHC -116 | 55.1% | 3 | WIN |
| PHI@MIL | OVER 8.5 | 55.0% | 3 | WIN |
| ARI@LAD | SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
| SEA@CLE | CLE +1.5 | 57.2% | 3 | WIN |