Reds vs Phillies Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS MLB Lines & Props (Jul 04)

Updated: 2025-07-02T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Cincinnati Reds (45–42) and Philadelphia Phillies (51–36) open a three-game series on Friday, July 4, 2025, at Citizens Bank Park, with first pitch scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET. Andrew Abbott (7–1, 1.79 ERA) is set to start for the Reds, while the Phillies counter with a lineup featuring sluggers like Kyle Schwarber.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Jul 04, 2025

Start Time: 1:05 PM EST​

Venue: Citizens Bank Park​

Phillies Record: (51-36)

Reds Record: (45-42)

OPENING ODDS

CIN Moneyline: +134

PHI Moneyline: -160

CIN Spread: +1.5

PHI Spread: -1.5

Over/Under: 8.5

CIN
Betting Trends

  • The Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 73 games, indicating a strong trend toward lower-scoring contests.

PHI
Betting Trends

  • The Phillies are 4–1 against the spread in their last 5 home games and 7–1 straight up in their last 8 home games, showcasing their dominance at Citizens Bank Park.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia’s last 8 games, suggesting a potential low-scoring affair in this matchup.

CIN vs. PHI
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: S. Steer over 0.5 Total Bases.

LIVE MLB ODDS

MLB ODDS COMPARISON

WANT MORE AI PICKS?

VAULT
VS. SPREAD
346-264
VAULT
NET UNITS
(INCL VIG)
+366.4
VAULT
NET PROFIT
(INCL VIG)
$100/UNIT
$36,643
EXECUTIVE
VS. SPREAD
1604-1367
EXECUTIVE
NET UNITS
(INCL VIG)
+391.6
EXECUTIVE
NET PROFIT
(INCL VIG)
$100/UNIT
$39,159

AI SPORTS PICK PRODUCTS

Create a Free Account

‘Create an Account’ to Get Remi’s Picks Today.

Remi Finds New Picks

Remi calculates the probability a team will cover the line.

Remi Works 24/7

Remi uses this probability to assign units to each pick.

Get Remi's AI Picks

Get Remi’s Top AI Sports Picks sent direct to your inbox.

Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 7/4/25

The Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies meet on July 4, 2025, at Citizens Bank Park to open what should be a compelling three-game series with playoff implications for both clubs. The Phillies enter as the leaders of the NL East with a 51–36 record, while the Reds, sitting at 45–42, remain in a tightly contested NL Central and are pushing to position themselves for a potential Wild Card spot. Philadelphia has been dominant at home, winning seven of their last eight at Citizens Bank Park and going 4–1 against the spread in their last five home contests. Their recent games have followed a low-scoring pattern, with the UNDER hitting in seven of their last eight matchups, a trend largely fueled by steady pitching and more situational hitting. The Reds, meanwhile, arrive with rising confidence behind the stellar performance of left-handed starter Andrew Abbott, who boasts a 7–1 record and an elite 1.79 ERA across 15 starts. Cincinnati has consistently played in tight, low-scoring games, with the Game Total finishing UNDER in 41 of their last 73 outings, suggesting a similar outcome could unfold Friday. Offensively, the Reds are powered by the electric play of Elly De La Cruz, who leads the team in home runs and RBIs while also providing exceptional speed and defensive range.

The Phillies counter with a potent offense of their own, led by Kyle Schwarber’s power and Alec Bohm’s run production, though their overall approach has skewed more conservative lately with increased emphasis on getting runners aboard and executing small-ball tactics when needed. This stylistic shift has worked to their advantage, complementing a pitching staff that ranks in the league’s top half in ERA and WHIP. With Philadelphia’s pitching tightening up and their bullpen executing well in late innings, the Reds will need to be opportunistic early in games and take advantage of any lapses. Matchups between these two clubs have often featured close margins and strategic duels, and this edition should be no different, particularly with Abbott anchoring the Reds’ hopes in the opener. The Phillies’ ability to play clean defense and apply pressure on the bases will be tested against Cincinnati’s youthful athleticism and risk-taking style. Both teams understand the importance of entering the All-Star break on a high note, and this series presents an opportunity for either side to create meaningful momentum. Whether it’s the surging Abbott silencing Philly bats or the Phillies’ deep lineup breaking through for timely runs, the opener promises to be a tone-setting affair that could influence the remainder of each team’s first-half narrative. Expect a hard-fought game shaped by pitching, timely hits, and late-inning execution in what could be a classic midsummer chess match between two playoff hopefuls.

Cincinnati Reds MLB Preview

The Cincinnati Reds arrive in Philadelphia for their July 4 series opener with a 45–42 record and the firm belief that they remain in striking distance of both the NL Central lead and a Wild Card berth. Led by the sensational Andrew Abbott, who will start Friday’s game carrying a 7–1 record and an astonishing 1.79 ERA, the Reds have built a competitive identity around pitching, defense, and youthful aggression. Abbott has been a revelation in the rotation, giving Cincinnati a true frontline arm they can rely on, especially in big road matchups like this one. The Reds’ pitching staff has been particularly effective at keeping games low scoring, evident by the Game Total going UNDER in 41 of their last 73 contests, a figure that aligns with their ability to suppress runs while sometimes struggling to consistently produce offensively. That said, the offense has its standout performers, none more electric than Elly De La Cruz, who has become the heartbeat of the lineup. With 18 home runs, 57 RBIs, and elite speed, De La Cruz provides a constant threat to change the game with one swing or a daring dash on the basepaths. Around him, Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario have chipped in timely hits and productive plate appearances, but the Reds still go through stretches where scoring opportunities are squandered, often due to inexperience and poor situational execution.

One of their strengths lies in defensive flexibility, as they’ve managed to remain competitive in tight games through reliable fielding and quick infield work that takes pressure off their young arms. Manager David Bell has embraced a more aggressive approach this season, trusting young players in key situations and allowing them to develop while still competing. That development has included growing pains, particularly in the bullpen, where inconsistency from setup men and closer Alexis Díaz has led to blown leads late in games. Still, Cincinnati has shown they can hang with top-tier teams, recently taking competitive series from the Cubs and Padres. Facing a Phillies team that has dominated at home, the Reds will look to quiet the crowd early, lean on Abbott’s command and poise, and rely on the top of the lineup to generate quick offense. A key challenge will be managing high-leverage innings late in the game, especially if Philadelphia can wear down Abbott’s pitch count by the sixth or seventh. With a road record slightly above .500, Cincinnati knows this series could swing their positioning in the standings significantly, particularly with tough series against Milwaukee and Atlanta looming. If the Reds can steal Game 1 behind their ace, it could set the tone for a series upset and signal that this young club is ready to elevate from promising to postseason-ready. For now, the formula is clear: ride Abbott’s arm, let De La Cruz spark the offense, and play mistake-free baseball in a hostile environment that will demand their best execution across all nine innings.

The Cincinnati Reds (45–42) and Philadelphia Phillies (51–36) open a three-game series on Friday, July 4, 2025, at Citizens Bank Park, with first pitch scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET. Andrew Abbott (7–1, 1.79 ERA) is set to start for the Reds, while the Phillies counter with a lineup featuring sluggers like Kyle Schwarber. Cincinnati vs Philadelphia AI Prediction: Free MLB Betting Insights for Jul 04. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Philadelphia Phillies MLB Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies return to Citizens Bank Park for their July 4 series opener against the Cincinnati Reds riding high with a 51–36 record and firm control of first place in the National League East. This team has flourished at home, winning seven of its last eight games in front of a loyal and raucous fan base that has embraced the club’s balanced mix of power, pitching, and veteran savvy. At the heart of Philadelphia’s success has been a well-rounded offense led by Kyle Schwarber, whose home run prowess continues to intimidate opposing pitchers, and Alec Bohm, who has quietly posted one of the team’s most consistent offensive seasons with clutch hits and smart plate appearances. Complementing them are Trea Turner and Bryce Harper, whose veteran leadership and disciplined approaches help anchor a lineup that can strike at any moment, even during games trending toward low scores, which has been the case lately. The Phillies have gone UNDER the total in seven of their last eight contests, a sign that their pitching staff is doing its job, even when the bats aren’t exploding for double-digit runs. The rotation, while not featuring a dominant ace in the mold of Zack Wheeler this season due to injury absences, has stepped up with quality outings from Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez, while the bullpen has emerged as one of the most reliable in the league.

Manager Rob Thomson has expertly handled matchups late in games, using setup men like José Alvarado and Seranthony Domínguez to bridge tight contests to the ninth inning, where Craig Kimbrel has found success as a veteran closer. Defensively, the Phillies have been solid, particularly in the infield, where Bohm and Turner have limited errors and executed clean double plays that have bailed out pitchers in traffic-heavy innings. As they prepare to face Andrew Abbott and a dangerous yet inconsistent Reds squad, Philadelphia will be looking to strike early, get into Cincinnati’s bullpen by the sixth inning, and control the tempo from there. With their home-field advantage and ability to grind out wins in close games, the Phillies have found a formula that keeps them in control late, even when the long ball isn’t flying. Their offensive depth allows them to adapt depending on pitching matchups, and in Abbott, they’ll face one of the toughest young left-handers in the league, making timely hitting and base running a priority. Perhaps the biggest reason for Philadelphia’s strong first half is how well they’ve handled pressure games—whether it’s protecting a slim lead or clawing back from early deficits, the Phillies have stayed composed and battle-tested. This series presents a chance to further their division lead before the All-Star break and possibly put distance between themselves and the chasing Braves and Mets. A strong outing in the opener would not only set the tone for the weekend but also serve as a reminder that Philadelphia is every bit the contender its record suggests, especially when playing in front of one of the most passionate home crowds in baseball.

Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Prop Picks (AI)

Remi is pouring through tons of data on each line. In fact, anytime the Reds and Phillies play there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at Citizens Bank Park in Jul almost always follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: S. Steer over 0.5 Total Bases.

Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Prediction (AI)

Remi Robot Icon

Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over millions of data from every past game between the Reds and Phillies and using recursive machine learning and impressive AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.

Oddly enough, we’ve seen the AI has been most keyed in on the trending factor human bettors regularly put on Cincinnati’s strength factors between a Reds team going up against a possibly rested Phillies team. Trends look to say the true game analytics appear to reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line in particular.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our MLB AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Cincinnati vs Philadelphia picks, computer picks Reds vs Phillies, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
ACTIVE PICKS LOCKED - SEE NOW

These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full MLB schedule.

Reds Betting Trends

The Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 73 games, indicating a strong trend toward lower-scoring contests.

Phillies Betting Trends

The Phillies are 4–1 against the spread in their last 5 home games and 7–1 straight up in their last 8 home games, showcasing their dominance at Citizens Bank Park.

Reds vs. Phillies Matchup Trends

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia’s last 8 games, suggesting a potential low-scoring affair in this matchup.

Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Game Info

Cincinnati vs Philadelphia starts on July 04, 2025 at 1:05 PM EST.

Spread: Philadelphia -1.5
Moneyline: Cincinnati +134, Philadelphia -160
Over/Under: 8.5

Cincinnati: (45-42)  |  Philadelphia: (51-36)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: S. Steer over 0.5 Total Bases.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia’s last 8 games, suggesting a potential low-scoring affair in this matchup.

CIN trend: The Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 73 games, indicating a strong trend toward lower-scoring contests.

PHI trend: The Phillies are 4–1 against the spread in their last 5 home games and 7–1 straight up in their last 8 home games, showcasing their dominance at Citizens Bank Park.

See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of data points on each team. In fact, anytime the Cincinnati vs Philadelphia trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme hostile environments rarely follow normal, predictable betting trends.

Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Opening Odds

CIN Moneyline: +134
PHI Moneyline: -160
CIN Spread: +1.5
PHI Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 8.5

Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U

MLB Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies on July 04, 2025 at Citizens Bank Park.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
LAD@TOR TOR +1.5 56.7% 2 WIN
TOR@LAD TOR +1.5 55.3% 4 WIN
TOR@SEA OVER 7 54.9% 3 WIN
LAD@MIL UNDER 7.5 56.6% 6 WIN
TOR@NYY OVER 8 54.9% 4 WIN
TOR@NYY CARLOS RODON OVER 1.5 TOTAL WALKS ALLOWED 53.3% 3 WIN
NYY@TOR OVER 7.5 54.8% 2 WIN
LAD@PHI OVER 7 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC CHC -109 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC OVER 7.5 54.5% 4 LOSS
SD@CHC CHC -111 54.8% 4 LOSS
CIN@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 1.5 BASES 53.5% 3 WIN
BOS@NYY OVER 7 53.8% 3 LOSS
CIN@LAD ELLY DE LA CRUZ OVER 0.5 BASES 54.4% 4 LOSS
ARI@SD SD -131 57.3% 4 WIN
DET@BOS BOS -115 56.4% 5 WIN
NYM@CHC NYM -110 54.1% 3 WIN
HOU@ATH ATH +118 50.8% 4 WIN
NYM@CHC OVER 7 54.5% 3 WIN
STL@SF OVER 7.5 55.9% 5 LOSS
KC@LAA TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@SD UNDER 9 54.7% 4 WIN
MIA@PHI KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 53.3% 3 WIN
WAS@NYM OVER 8.5 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAA@COL COL +108 50.5% 3 WIN
TOR@KC UNDER 9 54.7% 4 LOSS
SEA@KC KC +1.5 62.3% 5 LOSS
NYY@MIN OVER 9 55.1% 4 WIN
MIA@COL OVER 10.5 55.0% 4 WIN
MIA@COL AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.3% 4 WIN
SEA@KC BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES 54.4% 4 LOSS
PHI@LAD LAD -113 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYY@BOS OVER 7.5 54.3% 3 WIN
KC@PHI PHI -130 58.3% 4 WIN
LAD@SF OVER 7.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYM@PHI PHI -122 55.6% 4 WIN
KC@CLE KC -104 52.0% 3 WIN
CIN@SD JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS 53.1% 3 WIN
WAS@MIA MIA -123 55.2% 4 LOSS
LAA@KC UNDER 9.5 54.9% 3 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9 54.2% 4 WIN
SF@COL UNDER 11.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
SF@COL RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES 56.1% 6 WIN
MIA@WAS WAS -110 54.4% 4 WIN
NYM@DET OVER 8.5 54.5% 4 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9.5 56.4% 6 WIN
TEX@ARI ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.1% 4 LOSS
ATL@CHC CHC -116 55.1% 3 WIN
PHI@MIL OVER 8.5 55.0% 3 WIN
ARI@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES 54.2% 4 WIN
SEA@CLE CLE +1.5 57.2% 3 WIN