The Toronto Blue Jays enter Wednesday’s crucial home matchup against the AL East-leading New York Yankees with a 44-38 record and a sense of urgency as they try to keep pace in one of baseball’s most competitive divisions. After dropping the first games of the series and struggling against the Yankees’ imposing rotation, the Blue Jays will turn to veteran right-hander Kevin Gausman to try to level the playing field. Gausman, who is 3-6 with a 4.50 ERA on the season, has had a rollercoaster year but is coming off his best start of 2025—an eight-inning shutout performance that flashed the dominance he’s capable of when he has his splitter working. He’ll need every bit of that command against a Yankees lineup that has punished mistakes and leads the American League in home runs. Toronto’s offense, though talented on paper, has been inconsistent, often relying on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette to carry the load. Guerrero has provided the power, but the team needs greater contributions from the rest of the lineup, including Daulton Varsho, George Springer, and Alejandro Kirk, if they hope to break through against Max Fried, who enters with a 10-2 record and a 1.92 ERA and has historically shut them down with clinical efficiency.

The Blue Jays have also had difficulties late in games, with their bullpen unable to consistently protect leads or keep opponents from extending the score, a vulnerability that has hurt them in tight contests and directly contributed to their five-game streak of failing to cover the spread. Defensively, they’ve been middle-of-the-pack, capable of making standout plays but prone to occasional lapses that have cost them in key moments, and they’ll need a clean game in the field to give themselves a fighting chance against a disciplined Yankees team. Despite their recent ATS struggles, the Blue Jays remain dangerous at home, where the crowd at Rogers Centre provides a boost and the bats often wake up in time to keep things competitive. The key for Toronto will be Gausman’s ability to contain Judge, Stanton, and Bellinger through the first two times through the order—if he can avoid the big inning and stretch into the seventh, they’ll have a shot to turn things over to their top arms in a manageable situation. At the plate, generating runs early and forcing Fried to work deep counts will be crucial to disrupt his rhythm and prevent the Yankees from cruising through the first half of the game. Manager John Schneider may look to shake up the lineup or apply pressure on the basepaths to spark the offense and disrupt Fried’s timing. With divisional implications and the Yankees threatening to create distance at the top of the standings, this is the type of game the Blue Jays need to play with urgency and execution, hoping that home field, a hot start, and a resurgent Gausman performance can help them steal a much-needed win and reassert themselves as legitimate challengers in the American League.