The Seattle Mariners enter their July 2, 2025 matchup against the Kansas City Royals with a 44–40 record and the goal of tightening their grip on a competitive AL West race as they play host at T-Mobile Park. Although they’ve been inconsistent against the spread recently, going 4–6 in their last ten games, the Mariners have found ways to win key matchups behind their pitching depth and timely power hitting. George Kirby is projected to start for Seattle, and despite carrying a 1–4 record and 5.40 ERA this season, he has performed well against the Royals in the past, boasting a 1–0 record and 2.25 ERA in three career starts against Kansas City. Seattle’s coaching staff remains confident in Kirby’s ability to bounce back, especially at home, where he tends to find better command and generates soft contact when his fastball is working at the top of the zone. Offensively, the Mariners continue to be led by the powerful bat of Cal Raleigh, who enters the game with 19 home runs and a .258 batting average. Raleigh has served as the team’s most consistent run producer, and his left-handed power will be particularly dangerous against Michael Wacha, who has struggled historically in this ballpark. Julio Rodríguez, though not yet in full form compared to his past All-Star performances, is still a threat with 10 home runs and the potential to impact the game on the bases, in the field, or with a key extra-base hit.

The Mariners have benefited from an elite bullpen over the past two weeks, posting a 2.40 ERA as their relievers have routinely shut the door in close contests. Andrés Muñoz and Matt Brash have handled high-leverage innings effectively, giving manager Scott Servais the ability to manage matchups late in games. The team’s defense has been sharp, with minimal errors and strong outfield play that has cut down runners and limited extra-base damage. What has also stood out recently is Seattle’s ability to play smart situational baseball, bunting when needed, executing hit-and-runs, and sacrificing when the game demands it, showing a level of discipline that playoff-bound teams must have. From a betting perspective, Seattle has covered in three of its last five meetings against Kansas City and has generally outperformed weaker opponents at home this season. The Mariners know how important these games are as they try to avoid a midseason slump and keep pace with the Rangers and Astros. If Kirby can give them five or six solid innings and limit walks, the offense should be able to do enough damage to support him, especially with Wacha’s mixed results against Seattle in the past. With a clear edge in bullpen performance, defensive efficiency, and overall team momentum, Seattle is in prime position to secure another win and build toward a stronger second half. Mariners fans can expect a focused and competitive effort as their team looks to exploit Kansas City’s mistakes and take advantage of the home-field edge at a time when every win matters in a tightening division race.