Padres vs. Phillies
Prediction, Odds & Props
Jul 01 | MLB AI Picks

Updated: 2025-06-29T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies are set to clash on Tuesday, July 1, 2025, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, with first pitch scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET. Both teams are in the thick of their respective division races, making this matchup crucial as they vie for playoff positioning in the National League.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Jul 01, 2025

Start Time: 6:35 PM EST​

Venue: Citizens Bank Park​

Phillies Record: (50-35)

Padres Record: (45-39)

OPENING ODDS

SD Moneyline: +144

PHI Moneyline: -173

SD Spread: +1.5

PHI Spread: -1.5

Over/Under: 8.5

SD
Betting Trends

  • The Padres have covered the run line in 19 of their last 32 home games, indicating a strong performance against the spread when playing at Petco Park.

PHI
Betting Trends

  • The Phillies have put together a 7-3-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games, showcasing their ability to cover the run line in recent matchups.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • In games where the Phillies are favored by -169 or more, they have a 75.9% win rate this season, suggesting a strong likelihood of covering the spread in such scenarios.

SD vs. PHI
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: K. Schwarber over 0.5 Total Bases.

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San Diego vs Philadelphia Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 7/1/25

Tuesday’s showdown between the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park arrives at a pivotal point in the National League race, with both teams firmly entrenched in postseason contention and looking to gain ground within their respective divisions. The Phillies, owners of a 47-34 record, have been particularly strong at home and come into this contest riding a wave of momentum, having won seven of their last ten and recently showcasing a dominant stretch of pitching, with a collective ERA of just 2.62 over the past ten games. Their offense has been efficient rather than explosive, with key bats like Kyle Schwarber delivering power and Nick Castellanos providing timely hitting to support what has become one of the more balanced attacks in the league. Philadelphia’s ability to grind out close games has made them a tough opponent, and with the support of a reliable bullpen and elite defense, they’ve built a formula that thrives at home. On the other side, the Padres enter with a 44-36 record and remain in close pursuit of the Dodgers in the NL West. San Diego has been a team of streaks, capable of overpowering teams when their stars are firing, but also vulnerable to lapses in pitching depth and situational hitting.

Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. remain the emotional and offensive anchors of the team, with Tatis leading the squad in home runs and total bases, while Machado continues to rack up multi-hit games with a consistent .293 batting average. The Padres’ rotation has been uneven at times, but their bullpen has often done the job of limiting damage late, giving them a fighting chance in most contests. While the Phillies enter this matchup as favorites, especially at home and with the betting line trending their way, the Padres possess the offensive firepower and veteran leadership to make this a tight contest. The game is expected to feature strong starting pitching on both sides, and the result may hinge on which bullpen flinches first or which lineup capitalizes on limited scoring chances. With playoff implications looming, neither team can afford to let this one slip, making it a potential tone-setter for the rest of the series and possibly for the second half of the season. The Phillies will look to protect their turf and inch closer to the Braves in the East, while the Padres aim to pull off a road upset and inch closer to the Dodgers out West. A tightly contested battle between two October hopefuls seems all but guaranteed.

San Diego Padres MLB Preview

The San Diego Padres arrive at Citizens Bank Park for Tuesday’s matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies holding a 44-36 record and trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers in a crowded NL West race, looking to gain traction on the road in what is shaping up to be a defining stretch of their season. The Padres have proven themselves capable of beating anyone when their core players perform, and they’ll lean heavily on the star power of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado to anchor an offense that has at times sputtered but also shown the ability to explode against quality pitching. Tatis has been the most dynamic force in the lineup, leading the team with 15 home runs, flashing elite speed, and providing a jolt of energy at the top of the batting order, while Machado’s consistent .293 average and veteran presence have kept the Padres competitive in tight games. Offensively, San Diego’s run production has been inconsistent due to streaky contributions from the rest of the lineup, with players like Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth experiencing fluctuations in form that have made it difficult for manager Mike Shildt to sustain rallies or string together crooked innings. The pitching staff has been serviceable but far from dominant, with the rotation struggling at times to go deep into games, forcing the bullpen to shoulder a heavier load; however, the relief corps has been able to keep them in contests by limiting damage in late innings and holding leads when given the chance.

On the road, the Padres have been respectable against the spread, consistently covering as underdogs, and they’ve shown a tendency to bounce back after losses, which gives them a fighting chance even in hostile environments like Philadelphia. The key to this game for San Diego will be to get to the Phillies’ starter early and avoid giving the ball to the back end of Philadelphia’s bullpen with a deficit, as the late-game relief options for the Phillies have been highly effective this season. The Padres will also need to tighten up defensively, as lapses in the field have cost them valuable runs in recent weeks, and against a team as fundamentally sound as the Phillies, every out will matter. With a chance to make a statement against one of the National League’s top teams and narrow the gap in the division, the Padres will need a complete performance fueled by their top bats, sharper pitching from their starter, and disciplined situational baseball. While the odds are stacked slightly against them on the road, San Diego has the pedigree and pieces to pull off a meaningful win if they can deliver in high-leverage moments and avoid the costly mistakes that have haunted them in past road losses.

The San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies are set to clash on Tuesday, July 1, 2025, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, with first pitch scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET. Both teams are in the thick of their respective division races, making this matchup crucial as they vie for playoff positioning in the National League. San Diego vs Philadelphia AI Prediction: Free MLB Betting Insights for Jul 01. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Philadelphia Phillies MLB Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies enter Tuesday’s matchup against the San Diego Padres with a 47-34 record and one of the best home resumes in Major League Baseball, thriving at Citizens Bank Park thanks to a combination of deep pitching, timely offense, and sharp execution in tight games. Riding a recent 7-3 record against the spread, the Phillies are gaining momentum as the summer heats up, and they’ve done it behind a rotation that has posted a dominant 2.62 ERA over their last ten outings, a testament to their consistency and ability to shut down even the most potent lineups. The offense has complemented that pitching excellence with a steady dose of power and discipline, led by the left-handed bat of Kyle Schwarber, who continues to be a home run threat every time he steps to the plate, and Nick Castellanos, whose bat has come alive with runners in scoring position. Bryce Harper’s return to full health has also given this lineup an added edge, as his approach at the plate and leadership in the dugout have helped fuel the team’s surge through the National League standings.

Philadelphia’s defense has been quietly excellent, turning double plays and minimizing unforced errors, while their bullpen—anchored by José Alvarado and Jeff Hoffman—has emerged as one of the most reliable late-inning groups in the NL, giving manager Rob Thomson confidence to turn games over to his relievers once the starters exit. At home, the Phillies have consistently jumped out early, averaging more runs in the first three innings than they do on the road, putting immediate pressure on opponents and allowing their pitchers to work with a cushion. Their ability to grind out at-bats, draw walks, and extend opposing starters’ pitch counts has made them a difficult matchup for visiting teams, especially those lacking bullpen depth or struggling with command. Against a Padres team that has the offensive potential to strike quickly but has been inconsistent when asked to play small ball, the Phillies will aim to keep the ball in the yard and win the situational battles that often decide close games. Their success this season has been built on doing the little things right—getting the bunt down, hitting the cutoff man, and cashing in when the bases are loaded—and those traits will be critical again as they try to protect their home field and keep pressure on the Braves in the NL East race. With a well-rounded roster, elite pitching form, and an energized fan base behind them, the Phillies are positioned not only to win this matchup but to make a firm statement that they are one of the most complete teams in baseball heading into the heart of the season.

San Diego vs. Philadelphia Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through tons of datapoints on each line. In fact, anytime the Padres and Phillies play there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at Citizens Bank Park in Jul seemingly never follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: K. Schwarber over 0.5 Total Bases.

San Diego vs. Philadelphia Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over millions of data from every simulation between the Padres and Phillies and using recursive machine learning and impressive AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.

Oddly enough, we’ve seen the AI has been most focused on the linear correlation of factor human bettors tend to put on player performance factors between a Padres team going up against a possibly tired Phillies team. We’ve found the true game analytics might reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line specifically.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our MLB AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI San Diego vs Philadelphia picks, computer picks Padres vs Phillies, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
MLB 9/26 DET@BOS UNLOCK THIS PICK 5 EXECUTIVE Locked EXECUTIVE
MLB 9/26 BAL@NYY UNLOCK THIS PICK 4 INTEL Locked INTEL
MLB 9/26 ARI@SD UNLOCK THIS PICK 4 EXECUTIVE Locked EXECUTIVE
MLB 9/26 NYM@MIA UNLOCK THIS PICK 1 INTEL Locked INTEL
MLB 9/26 NYM@MIA GET FREE PICK NOW 1
MLB 9/26 COL@SF UNLOCK THIS PICK 0 INTEL Locked INTEL

These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full MLB schedule.

Padres Betting Trends

The Padres have covered the run line in 19 of their last 32 home games, indicating a strong performance against the spread when playing at Petco Park.

Phillies Betting Trends

The Phillies have put together a 7-3-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games, showcasing their ability to cover the run line in recent matchups.

Padres vs. Phillies Matchup Trends

In games where the Phillies are favored by -169 or more, they have a 75.9% win rate this season, suggesting a strong likelihood of covering the spread in such scenarios.

San Diego vs. Philadelphia Game Info

San Diego vs Philadelphia starts on July 01, 2025 at 6:35 PM EST.

Spread: Philadelphia -1.5
Moneyline: San Diego +144, Philadelphia -173
Over/Under: 8.5

San Diego: (45-39)  |  Philadelphia: (50-35)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: K. Schwarber over 0.5 Total Bases.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

In games where the Phillies are favored by -169 or more, they have a 75.9% win rate this season, suggesting a strong likelihood of covering the spread in such scenarios.

SD trend: The Padres have covered the run line in 19 of their last 32 home games, indicating a strong performance against the spread when playing at Petco Park.

PHI trend: The Phillies have put together a 7-3-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games, showcasing their ability to cover the run line in recent matchups.

See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

San Diego vs. Philadelphia Odds

Remi is pouring through loads of data points on each player. In fact, anytime the San Diego vs Philadelphia trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme travel distance seemingly never follow normal, predictable patterns.

San Diego vs Philadelphia Opening Odds

SD Moneyline: +144
PHI Moneyline: -173
SD Spread: +1.5
PHI Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 8.5

San Diego vs Philadelphia Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Sep 27, 2025 1:06PM EDT
Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
9/27/25 1:06PM
Orioles
Yankees
+194
-235
+1.5 (-105)
-1.5 (-114)
O 8.5 (-122)
U 8.5 (+100)
Sep 27, 2025 2:21PM EDT
St Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
9/27/25 2:21PM
Cardinals
Cubs
 
-168
 
-1.5 (+118)
O 9 (-122)
U 9 (+100)
Sep 27, 2025 3:09PM EDT
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
9/27/25 3:09PM
Rays
Blue Jays
+132
-156
+1.5 (-154)
-1.5 (+128)
O 8.5 (-106)
U 8.5 (-114)
Sep 27, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Chicago White Sox
Washington Nationals
9/27/25 4:06PM
White Sox
Nationals
+102
-120
-1.5 (+162)
+1.5 (-196)
O 8.5 (-110)
U 8.5 (-110)
Sep 27, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
9/27/25 4:06PM
Rockies
Giants
+198
-240
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
O 8 (-108)
U 8 (-112)
Sep 27, 2025 4:11PM EDT
New York Mets
Miami Marlins
9/27/25 4:11PM
Mets
Marlins
-124
+106
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-156)
O 8.5 (-112)
U 8.5 (-108)
Sep 27, 2025 6:05PM EDT
Minnesota Twins
Philadelphia Phillies
9/27/25 6:05PM
Twins
Phillies
+177
-197
+1.5 (-118)
-1.5 (-102)
O 8.5 (-118)
U 8.5 (-102)
Sep 27, 2025 7:11PM EDT
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
9/27/25 7:11PM
Reds
Brewers
+128
-152
+1.5 (-178)
-1.5 (+146)
O 7.5 (-120)
U 7.5 (-102)
Sep 27, 2025 7:15PM EDT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Atlanta Braves
9/27/25 7:15PM
Pirates
Braves
+143
-158
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+130)
O 8.5 (+100)
U 8.5 (-120)
Sep 27, 2025 7:16PM EDT
Texas Rangers
Cleveland Guardians
9/27/25 7:16PM
Rangers
Guardians
+132
-156
+1.5 (-172)
-1.5 (+142)
O 7 (-120)
U 7 (-102)
Sep 27, 2025 8:40PM EDT
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
9/27/25 8:40PM
Diamondbacks
Padres
+120
-132
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+157)
O 7.5 (-115)
U 7.5 (-105)
Sep 27, 2025 9:41PM EDT
Los Angeles Dodgers
Seattle Mariners
9/27/25 9:41PM
Dodgers
Mariners
+102
-120
+1.5 (-215)
-1.5 (+180)
O 7.5 (-110)
U 7.5 (-110)
Sep 27, 2025 10:05PM EDT
Kansas City Royals
Oakland Athletics
9/27/25 10:05PM
Royals
Athletics
+104
-115
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+161)
O 10 (-110)
U 10 (-110)

MLB Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies on July 01, 2025 at Citizens Bank Park.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
NYM@CHC NYM -110 54.1% 3 WIN
HOU@ATH ATH +118 50.8% 4 WIN
NYM@CHC OVER 7 54.5% 3 WIN
STL@SF OVER 7.5 55.9% 5 LOSS
KC@LAA TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@SD UNDER 9 54.7% 4 WIN
MIA@PHI KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 53.3% 3 WIN
WAS@NYM OVER 8.5 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAA@COL COL +108 50.5% 3 WIN
TOR@KC UNDER 9 54.7% 4 LOSS
SEA@KC KC +1.5 62.3% 5 LOSS
NYY@MIN OVER 9 55.1% 4 WIN
MIA@COL OVER 10.5 55.0% 4 WIN
MIA@COL AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.3% 4 WIN
SEA@KC BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES 54.4% 4 LOSS
PHI@LAD LAD -113 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYY@BOS OVER 7.5 54.3% 3 WIN
KC@PHI PHI -130 58.3% 4 WIN
LAD@SF OVER 7.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYM@PHI PHI -122 55.6% 4 WIN
KC@CLE KC -104 52.0% 3 WIN
CIN@SD JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS 53.1% 3 WIN
WAS@MIA MIA -123 55.2% 4 LOSS
LAA@KC UNDER 9.5 54.9% 3 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9 54.2% 4 WIN
SF@COL UNDER 11.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
SF@COL RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES 56.1% 6 WIN
MIA@WAS WAS -110 54.4% 4 WIN
NYM@DET OVER 8.5 54.5% 4 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9.5 56.4% 6 WIN
TEX@ARI ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.1% 4 LOSS
ATL@CHC CHC -116 55.1% 3 WIN
PHI@MIL OVER 8.5 55.0% 3 WIN
ARI@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES 54.2% 4 WIN
SEA@CLE CLE +1.5 57.2% 3 WIN
CHC@SF CHC -105 54.1% 4 LOSS
NYY@CHW RYAN MCMAHON OVER 0.5 BASES 54.1% 4 WIN
PHI@NYM OVER 8.5 55.6% 4 LOSS
LAA@TEX LOGAN OHOPPE OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.1% 4 LOSS
KC@CHW KC -109 54.2% 4 WIN
SD@SEA DYLAN CEASE OVER 16.5 OUTS 53.9% 3 LOSS
SD@SEA UNDER 8.5 54.4% 4 LOSS
MIN@TOR JOE RYAN UNDER 2.5 EARNED RUNS 54.1% 4 LOSS
SF@MIL MIL +100 54.0% 6 LOSS
TOR@MIA MIA +1.5 62.0% 6 WIN
CHC@LAA OVER 9.5 54.9% 4 LOSS
BOS@NYY CARLOS RODON UNDER 4.5 HITS ALLOWED 54.2% 4 WIN
KC@DET DET -115 56.1% 5 WIN
CHC@LAA LAA +1.5 57.6% 5 LOSS
CIN@ARI KEBRYAN HAYES STRIKEOUTS UNDER 0.5 56.2% 6 WIN
LAD@SD SD +110 50.9% 6 WIN