The Boston Red Sox return to Fenway Park on Monday night carrying a 41–44 record and in urgent need of a turnaround after dropping six of their last eight home games against the spread, with recent inconsistency on both sides of the ball threatening to derail their hopes of remaining relevant in the American League playoff picture as the season reaches its midpoint. Offensively, the Red Sox have been driven by the efforts of Wilyer Abreu and Trevor Story, with Abreu continuing to provide power from the outfield and Story offering veteran stability in the infield, though the team’s overall run production has stalled at times, averaging just 4.4 runs per game due to streaky hitting and a lack of timely contact with runners in scoring position. They’ve struggled to build momentum even after stringing together productive innings, often falling short late due to defensive lapses or bullpen fatigue, both of which have turned winnable games into frustrating losses, particularly in the friendly confines of Fenway where home-field advantage has not been fully realized. Boston’s best weapon heading into this matchup is left-handed starter Garrett Crochet, who brings a sharp 7–4 record and an elite 2.06 ERA into this contest, and his ability to mix his fastball and devastating slider will be essential in neutralizing a Reds offense that thrives on momentum swings and aggressive base running.

Crochet has delivered quality starts in seven of his last eight outings and will be tasked with keeping Cincinnati’s most dangerous hitters like Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer off balance, ideally keeping the ball on the ground and minimizing pitch counts to allow him to pitch deep into the game. Defensively, Boston holds a .985 fielding percentage, which is just below league average, and while they’ve avoided costly errors in bulk, their infield range and situational execution have cost them outs and extended innings in critical moments, making it imperative for them to stay sharp behind Crochet if they hope to limit damage and play from ahead. The bullpen remains serviceable, anchored by Kenley Jansen in the closer role, though the middle relief corps has been taxed of late and could be vulnerable if Crochet isn’t able to give them a cushion heading into the sixth or seventh innings. Manager Alex Cora has leaned heavily on analytics to optimize matchups, but the lack of consistent offensive production means the Red Sox need to find ways to manufacture runs rather than relying solely on the long ball or explosive innings. Facing a Reds team that has won five of its last seven against the spread, Boston will need to be efficient, patient at the plate, and opportunistic with runners aboard to outduel a young and confident Cincinnati squad. A win on Monday would provide a much-needed confidence boost and perhaps spark a home stand resurgence, and with Crochet on the mound and urgency growing by the day, the Red Sox know the opportunity to shift the season’s narrative begins with execution, intensity, and a clean performance against a formidable interleague opponent.