The Boston Red Sox head into Sunday’s pivotal rubber match against the Toronto Blue Jays with a 41–43 record, seeking to claw their way back to the .500 mark and gain critical momentum before the calendar flips to July. Despite the recent inconsistency, Boston has managed to remain competitive, especially at Fenway Park where their 22–18 home record reflects a more confident and energetic ballclub that feeds off the atmosphere. Walker Buehler will get the start for the Red Sox, and while the veteran right-hander brings name recognition and experience, he’s struggled mightily in recent outings, allowing a staggering 10.64 ERA across his last five starts and entering this game with a 6.29 season ERA. Control issues and diminished velocity have plagued Buehler since returning from injury, and if he cannot find the strike zone early, the Red Sox could quickly find themselves turning to the bullpen, a scenario that has repeatedly spelled trouble in recent weeks. Offensively, Boston will continue to rely on its top producers, led by Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran, who have each delivered timely hits and steady contributions despite some batting average volatility. Abreu leads the team with 14 home runs and brings much-needed power from the left side, while Duran’s speed and on-base instincts provide opportunities at the top of the order, especially when he can get into scoring position ahead of Boston’s middle-of-the-lineup hitters.

Carlos Narvaez (.271 AVG, 6 HR) has added surprising depth to the lineup, and Trevor Story’s 11 home runs help round out a group that is capable of producing big innings when locked in. That said, the Red Sox continue to grapple with inconsistency in sequencing and struggle to convert runners in scoring position, a problem that has cost them multiple winnable games. Defensively and on the mound, the team ERA of 3.93 is respectable, but it masks some of the deeper bullpen concerns and the lack of reliability from back-end relievers, especially when the starter fails to complete five innings. From a betting perspective, the Red Sox have been involved in higher-scoring contests at home, hitting the over in 4 of their last 6 games at Fenway, a trend likely to continue if Buehler falters early and the offense is forced to rally. Boston has lost 6 of 9 to Toronto this year, including three games at home, so the emotional and strategic stakes are high in Sunday’s finale, as a loss would not only cost them the series but further widen the gap between them and the teams ahead in the AL East. For manager Alex Cora, the key will be finding a way to stabilize Buehler early and piece together outs with the bullpen while hoping the offense can take advantage of any early command lapses from Eric Lauer. The Red Sox need to show urgency and crisp execution in all phases to outlast a Toronto team that has had their number, and if they can finally sync their pitching and hitting for nine innings, they’ll walk away with a series win and a chance to start the second half on better footing.