The Baltimore Orioles enter Sunday’s home finale against the Tampa Bay Rays with a 35–47 record and a pressing need to reclaim control after dropping momentum mid-series, hoping to piece together a complete performance that has eluded them for much of the season. Dean Kremer takes the mound for the Orioles with a 6–7 record and a 4.60 ERA, representing a starter who has shown reliability in flashes but also struggled with maintaining consistency deeper into games, particularly against well-disciplined lineups like Tampa Bay’s that excel at working counts and punishing mistakes. Baltimore’s pitching staff as a whole has been shaky over the past 10 games, producing a 5.93 ERA in that stretch, often putting the offense in early holes that limit their ability to play with aggression or control tempo. Kremer will need to pitch with precision and avoid the big inning if the Orioles hope to slow a Rays offense that has been blistering hot lately, with key hitters such as Yandy Díaz and Brandon Lowe capable of turning any mistake into damage. At the plate, Baltimore has leaned on the reliable presence of Ryan O’Hearn, who is hitting .294 with 11 home runs and continues to be the most consistent threat in the order, while Gary Sánchez has found a resurgence of late, hitting .343 over his last 10 games with three home runs and offering much-needed thump behind O’Hearn.

Still, the Orioles remain a team that too often fails to capitalize on scoring opportunities, especially in late innings when matchups become tighter and the margin for error shrinks, and their inability to consistently generate runs has kept them from closing the gap in many winnable games. Defensively, Baltimore is solid when they’re not chasing games, and they have shown strong results in contests where the pitching staff avoids allowing home runs, boasting a 16–9 record in such scenarios, which places an even greater emphasis on keeping Tampa Bay’s deep lineup in the park. From a betting perspective, the Orioles have hit the under in 39 of their last 59 games, pointing to both a pitching staff that limits scoring enough to keep totals down and an offense that doesn’t often explode for crooked numbers themselves. With the series tied at one game apiece and the home crowd behind them, the Orioles will need to come out with urgency and execute cleanly across the board—timely hitting, efficient pitching, and crisp defense—all of which are required against a Rays team that punishes lapses. If Kremer can survive the early innings and Sánchez or O’Hearn can come through with key hits to give Baltimore a lead, the Orioles may be able to claw out a much-needed series win and shift some momentum heading into July, but anything short of their best may not be enough against one of the hottest teams in the league. This game serves as both a test and an opportunity for the Orioles to show they’re more than just spoilers in the AL East and capable of winning meaningful games against playoff-caliber opponents.