The Cleveland Guardians return to Progressive Field on Sunday aiming to avoid a sweep at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals and salvage the final game of their three-game series, entering with a 40–41 record and searching for the spark that could propel them back into the upper tier of the American League Central. Cleveland will send left-hander Logan Allen to the mound, a pitcher with a 5–5 record and 4.25 ERA across 72 innings who has had stretches of effectiveness this season by relying on his fading changeup and well-tunneled slider to induce soft contact and stay out of the big inning, but his success often hinges on his ability to get ahead in counts early and avoid nibbling at the corners. Allen faces a Cardinals lineup that has hit lefties well in recent games, so his ability to neutralize the top of the order—particularly Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson—will be critical if the Guardians hope to keep the game within reach. Offensively, Cleveland continues to ride the production of superstar third baseman José Ramírez, whose .312 batting average, 13 home runs, and strong RBI totals have made him the engine of the Guardians’ attack, while Steven Kwan complements him well at the top of the lineup with a .300 average and an excellent approach at the plate that sets the table for the heart of the order. However, the supporting cast has been inconsistent, particularly the bottom half of the order, which has struggled to generate offense and capitalize on the opportunities created by Ramírez and Kwan, often stalling potential rallies.

The Guardians’ inability to string together multi-run innings has left them vulnerable in close games, and their 39–42 record against the spread reflects a team that has been competitive but not consistently effective in beating expectations. Defensively, the Guardians have remained steady with a 3.99 team ERA and above-average fielding metrics, and their ability to limit mistakes in the field has kept them in games even when the offense sputters, though the bullpen has had difficulty protecting narrow leads or keeping deficits manageable. Key relievers like Emmanuel Clase and Hunter Gaddis have had strong moments, but the setup corps has shown signs of fatigue, making it critical for Allen to go at least six innings and limit the bullpen’s exposure against a Cardinals team that has shown excellent late-game execution. For Cleveland to take this game, they’ll need to put pressure on Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore early by being aggressive on fastballs in hitter’s counts and forcing him to pitch from the stretch, a situation where he’s been less effective. Generating offense from sources beyond just Ramírez and Kwan—such as Will Brennan or David Fry—could be the difference between another frustrating offensive showing and a breakout that helps them end the series on a high note. With the Guardians hovering near .500 and the division race still wide open, a win on Sunday would not only stop the bleeding from the past two games but also give them a psychological edge heading into their next stretch of games, reinforcing their resilience and ability to respond to adversity when it matters most.