The Arizona Diamondbacks enter Saturday’s home game against the Miami Marlins with a 41–40 record and a clear opportunity to build on their series dominance over Miami, having won all three prior meetings in 2025 while covering the spread in each contest, and they’ll look to continue that trend behind right-hander Brandon Pfaadt, who has emerged as a steady if not spectacular presence in the rotation. Pfaadt brings an 8–5 record and 5.49 ERA over 80.1 innings into this matchup, and while his ERA doesn’t sparkle, his strikeout totals and improved control have allowed him to limit damage more effectively over his past few starts, especially against lineups that struggle with swing-and-miss tendencies like Miami’s. The Diamondbacks have built their success this season around a balanced offense that doesn’t rely on one superstar, with Ketel Marte anchoring the infield and providing consistent production while Corbin Carroll’s dynamic baserunning and gap power continue to change the course of games by pressuring defenses and forcing mistakes. They’ve also gotten valuable contributions from the likes of Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Jake McCarthy, both of whom have been timely hitters and solid outfield defenders, contributing to Arizona’s improved run prevention metrics when paired with above-average athleticism across the diamond.

The D-backs’ team fielding percentage has hovered near league average, but they’ve been especially sharp at Chase Field, where they’ve played clean, efficient baseball and used their home field’s spacious dimensions to their advantage, limiting extra-base hits and forcing opponents to string together hits to score. From a pitching standpoint, Arizona’s bullpen has quietly become one of the more dependable groups in the National League, with Paul Sewald and Kevin Ginkel providing solid late-inning stability, allowing manager Torey Lovullo to navigate close games with confidence, especially against teams that falter under pressure like the Marlins. Offensively, Arizona owns a team slugging percentage of .403, outpacing Miami’s .368, and their ability to put balls in play, take extra bases, and produce situational runs gives them a tactical advantage in games where both starters are liable to exit early. The Diamondbacks also hold a 41–38 record against the spread this season and are 3–0 against Miami, reinforcing their status as favorites in this matchup, particularly when playing at Chase Field, where they’ve won more than half of their games and tend to execute more crisply on both sides of the ball. The key to Saturday’s game will be whether Pfaadt can minimize damage early and turn the game over to the bullpen with a lead, and if Arizona’s bats can put pressure on Sandy Alcantara—who enters with a bloated 6.69 ERA and has struggled to regain his Cy Young form—the Diamondbacks should be well-positioned to secure another win. If Marte and Carroll can get on base and the heart of the order capitalizes with runners in scoring position, Arizona will be in full control of the game’s tempo, likely adding to their season success against the Marlins and continuing their climb up the NL West standings.