The Pittsburgh Pirates return home to PNC Park on Friday night looking to upset a far superior New York Mets team and snap out of what has largely been a disappointing 2025 campaign. Sitting at 32-50 and buried at the bottom of the NL Central, the Pirates have struggled to string together meaningful stretches of success, plagued by inconsistent hitting, shaky bullpen work, and untimely defensive errors. Mitch Keller gets the ball for the series opener despite a dismal 1-10 record, though his 4.02 ERA suggests he’s pitched better than the results show. Still, Keller has lacked command at critical moments and has too often been saddled with minimal run support, something that’s emblematic of the broader issues facing this Pittsburgh roster. Offensively, the team leans heavily on veteran Andrew McCutchen, who’s still performing with a .263 average and remains a leader in the clubhouse, while Oneil Cruz leads the team with 13 home runs but has struggled with strikeouts and inconsistency. Beyond that, the lineup lacks depth, with players like Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jack Suwinski, and Connor Joe showing only occasional flashes of effectiveness. The Pirates are averaging fewer than four runs per game, ranking among the bottom five teams in runs scored and team batting average, and their inability to deliver in clutch situations has left them vulnerable to extended losing streaks. On defense, Pittsburgh has made incremental improvements but still lacks the crisp execution seen in playoff-caliber clubs, particularly in double-play efficiency and outfield range. The bullpen, while occasionally solid, has also blown several late leads and lacks a dominant closer capable of locking down tight games.

Despite going 3-2 ATS in their last five outings, the Pirates are a risky pick against a Mets team that is both more talented and more experienced in winning grind-it-out matchups. For Pittsburgh to have any chance in this game, Keller will need to turn in one of his best performances of the year, keeping Alonso and Lindor in the park while working through a deep Mets lineup without the luxury of many strikeouts. At the plate, the Pirates must be opportunistic—getting runners on, executing situational hitting, and staying aggressive on the basepaths to disrupt New York’s rhythm. With home-field advantage, there’s a slight emotional edge, and if Pittsburgh can capitalize early and avoid falling into a quick deficit, they might be able to keep it close. However, with a team ERA of 3.72 and a low power output, Pittsburgh will need to play above their typical standard just to stay competitive. The Pirates’ focus in this series opener should be on minimizing mistakes, extending at-bats to tire out Peterson, and hoping their few offensive stars can deliver in high-leverage moments. While an upset isn’t impossible, it would require a perfect blend of elite pitching, timely hitting, and mistake-free defense—something the Pirates have yet to consistently achieve in 2025.