Sunday night’s matchup between the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park offers a compelling clash between division rivals trending in opposite directions as June nears its end. The Phillies come into the contest with strong momentum, having won eight of their last ten games, while the Mets are mired in a six-game losing streak that has severely dented their early-season progress and pushed them down the NL East standings. Philadelphia will send ace Zack Wheeler to the mound, and he enters this start with a 2.76 ERA and excellent command metrics, having gone deep into most of his recent outings while neutralizing both right-handed and left-handed hitters. Wheeler’s combination of a high-velocity fastball, a sharp curveball, and pinpoint location makes him one of the most effective starters in the National League, and his presence provides a sizable edge against a Mets team desperate for stability. New York counters with Griffin Canning, who started the season strong but has posted a 6.75 ERA over his last five starts and has struggled with pitch efficiency and command, rarely making it past the fourth inning during that stretch.

Offensively, the Phillies feature a lineup anchored by Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Trea Turner, with Schwarber in particular riding a power surge through June, while the Mets rely on the steady bat of Francisco Lindor, who continues to hit above .320 and drive in key runs despite the team’s broader struggles. Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo have shown flashes but have not been able to consistently deliver in high-leverage situations, contributing to New York’s slide. The Mets’ bullpen has been serviceable, but frequent early exits by the rotation have overexposed their middle relievers, which could become a liability again if Canning is pulled before the fifth inning. The Phillies bullpen, led by closer José Alvarado and setup man Seranthony Domínguez, has been dominant at home, converting most save opportunities and rarely allowing inherited runners to score. With the total set at nine runs, the betting market is signaling expectations for moderate scoring, and that feels accurate given both teams’ recent form—Philadelphia’s consistent run production and New York’s tendency to stay within range even during losses. The Phillies’ ATS record as favorites is strong, particularly at home, while the Mets have struggled to cover as underdogs, especially on the road. If Wheeler is sharp and the Phillies offense continues to capitalize on early chances, they are in excellent position to secure a 5–3 or 6–4 win, with the Mets’ only path to victory likely dependent on a surprise rebound from Canning and some timely extra-base hits from the heart of their order. Overall, the game sets up as a test of resilience for New York and an opportunity for Philadelphia to assert control over the division rivalry heading into the week ahead.