Royals vs Padres Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS MLB Lines & Props (Jun 22)
Updated: 2025-06-20T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The Kansas City Royals (38–38) take on the San Diego Padres (40–35) at Petco Park on Sunday, June 22, 2025. San Diego enters as a slight underdog (+105 ML, +1.5 run line), while the Royals are slight favorites (–114 ML, –1.5 RL), and the total sits at 8.5 runs—suggesting a competitive, mid-range scoring affair.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

GAME INFO
Date: Jun 22, 2025
Start Time: 4:10 PM EST
Venue: Petco Park
Padres Record: (41-35)
Royals Record: (38-39)
OPENING ODDS
KC Moneyline: -114
SD Moneyline: -105
KC Spread: -1.5
SD Spread: +1.5
Over/Under: 8.5
KC
Betting Trends
- Kansas City has gone 5–5 ATS over their last ten games and is 14–16 as moneyline favorites of –114 or shorter. They’ve covered in 7 of 10 games when favored, showing a solid performance under pressure.
SD
Betting Trends
- San Diego, at 17–20 when underdogs this season, has shown resilience but remains just below .500 ATS. They won 5 of 10 games as home underdogs and have covered a few times in close-picture contests.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Four of the Royals’ last ten games have gone over the total, indicating a balanced scoring trend. The Padres and Royals have veered under recently, making the mid‑8.5 total intriguing for swing-driven gameplay.
KC vs. SD
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: J. Caglianone over 0.5 Total Bases.
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Kansas City vs San Diego Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 6/22/25
Offensively, Kansas City leans heavily on Bobby Witt Jr., who continues to make a strong All-Star case, batting over .290 with power and speed, while Salvador Pérez adds clutch hitting and leadership from behind the plate. San Diego’s advantage may come late in the game, as their bullpen, anchored by closer Robert Suárez and set-up man Jason Adam, has shown the ability to shut opponents down in high-leverage situations. The Royals bullpen, though serviceable, has been prone to mid-inning lapses that could haunt them if Lugo exits early and the Padres find themselves in scoring position often. ATS trends show Kansas City slightly better when listed as a slight favorite, having covered in seven of ten such recent spots, while San Diego, as a small home underdog, has gone 5–5 in their last ten, performing just below break-even. The run total is set at 8.5, and with both pitchers capable of limiting damage early but vulnerable when fatigued, the scoring could hinge on one or two innings where base hits stack up quickly. Petco Park’s pitcher-friendly conditions may keep the power down, shifting the focus to situational execution—bunting, sac flies, and clutch two-out singles could be the difference. Expect a tight contest with both teams struggling to create separation until the later innings, and the bullpen edge likely tilting the game in San Diego’s favor if they hold serve. A final score of 5–4 in favor of the Padres or a 4–3 Royals victory both feel plausible depending on early command and mid-game management, making this one of Sunday’s more nuanced and tactical MLB matchups with significant implications for both team trajectories.
San Diego slugging. #HEYHEYHEYHEY pic.twitter.com/45JCAbGDz7
— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) June 21, 2025
Kansas City Royals MLB Preview
The Kansas City Royals approach Sunday’s game at Petco Park looking to regain momentum and push above the .500 mark after an uneven stretch that has highlighted both their promise and growing pains. Sitting at 38–38, the Royals continue to rely heavily on young cornerstone Bobby Witt Jr., whose blend of power, speed, and defensive excellence has made him one of the most exciting players in the American League. Witt enters Sunday batting just above .290 with 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases, a true engine atop a lineup that also includes veteran backstop Salvador Pérez, still producing at the plate with clutch RBIs, and middle infielder Jonathan India, whose plate discipline and occasional pop add balance in the middle innings. With Cole Ragans sidelined due to a shoulder issue, Kansas City turns to Seth Lugo, a reliable swingman with a track record of stepping into pressure spots, though his command can waver against patient lineups. Lugo’s ability to mix speeds and avoid the long ball will be tested in Petco’s deep dimensions, where line drives and hustle doubles become more frequent scoring threats.
Offensively, the Royals have had success generating runs through small ball and contact hitting, ranking among the league leaders in advancing runners and producing with two outs, but they’ve struggled when relying on home runs to carry the offense. The bullpen remains a key variable, especially with mid-relievers often tasked with bridging gaps earlier than desired, and manager Matt Quatraro has been aggressive with matchups to avoid late collapses. ATS-wise, Kansas City has gone 5–5 in its last ten overall and tends to cover when listed as narrow favorites, which they are here at –114, suggesting oddsmakers believe in their ability to hang with a comparable roster. Against the Padres, the Royals will aim to score early off Randy Vásquez, who’s shown flashes of promise but is still vulnerable to patient lineups that can foul off pitches and force mistakes. Witt Jr. and Pérez will be the primary catalysts for run creation, but Kansas City will need contributions from their bottom third to manufacture enough offense to keep pace. If Lugo delivers a solid five-inning start and the bullpen avoids issuing free passes, the Royals have a path to a low-scoring, one-run victory. A 4–3 or 5–4 win isn’t out of the question if the team stays clean defensively and remains aggressive on the basepaths, exploiting the Padres’ occasional lapses in catcher pop times and corner coverage. For Kansas City, Sunday’s contest is not just another game—it’s a chance to make a statement that they’re more than a .500 team coasting through the middle of the season, and that starts with their best players setting the tone from the first pitch onward.

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
San Diego Padres MLB Preview
The San Diego Padres enter Sunday’s matchup against the Kansas City Royals looking to solidify their hold on a National League Wild Card position while continuing to build momentum in what has been a streaky but promising season. At 40–35, the Padres have hovered above .500 thanks to timely hitting, resilient pitching performances, and a bullpen that has come through in late-game scenarios more often than not. They’ll send Randy Vásquez to the mound in this one, a right-hander who has started to find his rhythm in the rotation amid the continued absences of Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove. Vásquez, armed with a mid-90s fastball and a sharp curve, has posted a 3.70 ERA this season and has shown improved poise in recent starts, especially when working with a lead. San Diego’s lineup continues to be anchored by Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, with Tatis providing power and speed at the top and Machado offering consistency and veteran savvy in run-producing spots. Jake Cronenworth has also contributed with key hits, and Luis Campusano has offered a solid bat from behind the plate. While the Padres’ offense can occasionally run cold when overly reliant on home runs, they’ve fared better at Petco Park when they embrace a contact-oriented approach that keeps pressure on opposing defenses.
One of their biggest assets has been their bullpen, which features Robert Suárez closing games and Jason Adam setting up late innings with high-leverage precision. The unit has a collective ERA under 3.50 at home and has been instrumental in preserving narrow leads, especially in games with lower run totals. ATS-wise, the Padres have gone 5–5 in their last ten games and have been slightly below .500 as home underdogs this season, though they’ve covered frequently in games decided by two runs or fewer. Facing a Royals team with a vulnerable bullpen and a fill-in starter in Seth Lugo, the Padres will look to work deep counts early, forcing Lugo into long innings and attacking the Kansas City pen by the fifth or sixth frame. With Machado and Tatis setting the tone, San Diego could manufacture an early lead and then turn the game over to their dominant relief corps to close it out. Defensively, the Padres have been reliable, ranking in the top third of the league in fielding percentage and double plays turned, which could be critical in preventing the Royals from extending innings with speed or situational bunts. A 5–3 or 6–4 win is within reach if Vásquez delivers five solid frames and the bats generate timely offense against a Royals team still trying to piece together pitching consistency. Sunday’s game represents an opportunity for San Diego to finish the series with confidence, sharpen their execution against a comparable opponent, and position themselves for a strong finish to June.
Big team win. pic.twitter.com/DDpVYOX492
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) June 22, 2025
Kansas City vs. San Diego Prop Picks (AI)
Kansas City vs. San Diego Prediction (AI)

Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over tons of data from every facet between the Royals and Padres and using recursive machine learning and impressive AI to boil down the data to a single cover probability.
Oddly enough, we’ve seen the AI has been most fixated on the growing weight emotional bettors tend to put on coaching factors between a Royals team going up against a possibly rested Padres team. Trends look to say the true game analytics appear to reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line specifically.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our MLB AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI Kansas City vs San Diego picks, computer picks Royals vs Padres, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
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MLB | 10/20 | SEA@TOR | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 2 |
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MLB | 10/20 | SEA@TOR | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 0 |
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full MLB schedule.
Royals Betting Trends
Kansas City has gone 5–5 ATS over their last ten games and is 14–16 as moneyline favorites of –114 or shorter. They’ve covered in 7 of 10 games when favored, showing a solid performance under pressure.
Padres Betting Trends
San Diego, at 17–20 when underdogs this season, has shown resilience but remains just below .500 ATS. They won 5 of 10 games as home underdogs and have covered a few times in close-picture contests.
Royals vs. Padres Matchup Trends
Four of the Royals’ last ten games have gone over the total, indicating a balanced scoring trend. The Padres and Royals have veered under recently, making the mid‑8.5 total intriguing for swing-driven gameplay.
Kansas City vs. San Diego Game Info
What time does Kansas City vs San Diego start on June 22, 2025?
Kansas City vs San Diego starts on June 22, 2025 at 4:10 PM EST.
Where is Kansas City vs San Diego being played?
Venue: Petco Park.
What are the opening odds for Kansas City vs San Diego?
Spread: San Diego +1.5
Moneyline: Kansas City -114, San Diego -105
Over/Under: 8.5
What are the records for Kansas City vs San Diego?
Kansas City: (38-39) | San Diego: (41-35)
What is the AI best bet for Kansas City vs San Diego?
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: J. Caglianone over 0.5 Total Bases.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
What are Kansas City vs San Diego trending bets?
Four of the Royals’ last ten games have gone over the total, indicating a balanced scoring trend. The Padres and Royals have veered under recently, making the mid‑8.5 total intriguing for swing-driven gameplay.
What are Kansas City trending bets?
KC trend: Kansas City has gone 5–5 ATS over their last ten games and is 14–16 as moneyline favorites of –114 or shorter. They’ve covered in 7 of 10 games when favored, showing a solid performance under pressure.
What are San Diego trending bets?
SD trend: San Diego, at 17–20 when underdogs this season, has shown resilience but remains just below .500 ATS. They won 5 of 10 games as home underdogs and have covered a few times in close-picture contests.
Where can I find AI Picks for Kansas City vs San Diego?
See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
Kansas City vs. San Diego Odds
Remi is pouring through mountains of data points on each team. In fact, anytime the Kansas City vs San Diego trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme travel distance almost always follow normal, predictable patterns.
Kansas City vs San Diego Opening Odds
KC Moneyline:
-114 SD Moneyline: -105
KC Spread: -1.5
SD Spread: +1.5
Over/Under: 8.5
Kansas City vs San Diego Live Odds
Games | PTS | ML | SPR | O/U | |
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Oct 24, 2025 8:00PM EDT
Los Angeles Dodgers
Toronto Blue Jays
10/24/25 8PM
Dodgers
Blue Jays
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–
–
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-157
+129
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-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-144)
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O 7.5 (+102)
U 7.5 (-125)
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MLB Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Kansas City Royals vs. San Diego Padres on June 22, 2025 at Petco Park.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
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LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
---|---|---|---|---|
TOR@SEA | OVER 7 | 54.9% | 3 | WIN |
LAD@MIL | UNDER 7.5 | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
TOR@NYY | OVER 8 | 54.9% | 4 | WIN |
TOR@NYY | CARLOS RODON OVER 1.5 TOTAL WALKS ALLOWED | 53.3% | 3 | WIN |
NYY@TOR | OVER 7.5 | 54.8% | 2 | WIN |
LAD@PHI | OVER 7 | 53.8% | 3 | WIN |
SD@CHC | CHC -109 | 53.8% | 3 | WIN |
SD@CHC | OVER 7.5 | 54.5% | 4 | LOSS |
SD@CHC | CHC -111 | 54.8% | 4 | LOSS |
CIN@LAD | SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 1.5 BASES | 53.5% | 3 | WIN |
BOS@NYY | OVER 7 | 53.8% | 3 | LOSS |
CIN@LAD | ELLY DE LA CRUZ OVER 0.5 BASES | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
ARI@SD | SD -131 | 57.3% | 4 | WIN |
DET@BOS | BOS -115 | 56.4% | 5 | WIN |
NYM@CHC | NYM -110 | 54.1% | 3 | WIN |
HOU@ATH | ATH +118 | 50.8% | 4 | WIN |
NYM@CHC | OVER 7 | 54.5% | 3 | WIN |
STL@SF | OVER 7.5 | 55.9% | 5 | LOSS |
KC@LAA | TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
MIL@SD | UNDER 9 | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
MIA@PHI | KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS | 53.3% | 3 | WIN |
WAS@NYM | OVER 8.5 | 56.1% | 6 | LOSS |
LAA@COL | COL +108 | 50.5% | 3 | WIN |
TOR@KC | UNDER 9 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
SEA@KC | KC +1.5 | 62.3% | 5 | LOSS |
NYY@MIN | OVER 9 | 55.1% | 4 | WIN |
MIA@COL | OVER 10.5 | 55.0% | 4 | WIN |
MIA@COL | AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
SEA@KC | BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
PHI@LAD | LAD -113 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
NYY@BOS | OVER 7.5 | 54.3% | 3 | WIN |
KC@PHI | PHI -130 | 58.3% | 4 | WIN |
LAD@SF | OVER 7.5 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
NYM@PHI | PHI -122 | 55.6% | 4 | WIN |
KC@CLE | KC -104 | 52.0% | 3 | WIN |
CIN@SD | JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS | 53.1% | 3 | WIN |
WAS@MIA | MIA -123 | 55.2% | 4 | LOSS |
LAA@KC | UNDER 9.5 | 54.9% | 3 | WIN |
TEX@ARI | UNDER 9 | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
SF@COL | UNDER 11.5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |
SF@COL | RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES | 56.1% | 6 | WIN |
MIA@WAS | WAS -110 | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
NYM@DET | OVER 8.5 | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
TEX@ARI | UNDER 9.5 | 56.4% | 6 | WIN |
TEX@ARI | ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
ATL@CHC | CHC -116 | 55.1% | 3 | WIN |
PHI@MIL | OVER 8.5 | 55.0% | 3 | WIN |
ARI@LAD | SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
SEA@CLE | CLE +1.5 | 57.2% | 3 | WIN |
CHC@SF | CHC -105 | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
NYY@CHW | RYAN MCMAHON OVER 0.5 BASES | 54.1% | 4 | WIN |