The Oklahoma City Thunder enter Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals with home-court advantage, a 68–14 regular season behind them, and the league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander poised to lead them to the franchise’s first title since 1979. Their campaign has been built on elite defense, selfless offensive flow, and a youth-driven identity that has matured into a dominant force under head coach Mark Daigneault. The Thunder have gone 9–2 at home this postseason and hold a 6.5-point spread in their favor for Game 7, reflecting the confidence oddsmakers and fans alike have in their ability to rise to the occasion. Gilgeous-Alexander has been brilliant, combining crafty isolation scoring with unflappable late-game poise, and he’ll be the focal point once again, supported by Jalen Williams’ all-around game and Chet Holmgren’s increasingly impactful two-way presence. The recent shift to placing Holmgren in a rebounding-centric role has paid dividends, as the rookie center has hauled in 26 boards across the last two games while anchoring OKC’s interior defense with more confidence and physicality. Offensively, the Thunder utilize dribble-drive action, corner spacing, and a steady diet of screen usage to create high-efficiency looks for their perimeter scorers and cutters. Jalen Williams and Lu Dort stretch opposing wings with slashing and catch-and-shoot opportunities, while Alex Caruso and Isaiah Joe offer defensive versatility and timely shotmaking that often swing momentum.

Oklahoma City’s greatest strength is its composure—despite its youth, this team rarely panics, having closed out tight games repeatedly throughout the season with controlled execution and excellent spacing. Defensively, Dort will again be tasked with disrupting Tyrese Haliburton’s rhythm, likely picking him up full-court to burn clock and limit Indiana’s offensive flow. Caruso may see increased minutes off the bench for situational defense and timely stops, especially if the game tightens late. OKC’s transition defense has also been exceptional in the Finals, helping slow Indiana’s breakneck pace and forcing them into a half-court game, where the Thunder’s length and switchability allow them to smother possessions. In Game 7, the Thunder will look to assert themselves early, control the tempo, and prevent the Pacers from dictating flow through full-court pressure or second-chance points. With Haliburton not fully healthy and the Pacers reliant on streaky perimeter shooting, OKC will be confident if they can build an early lead and control the boards. Managing foul trouble, avoiding complacency, and making timely substitutions will be crucial as the margin for error in a Game 7 is razor-thin. But with Gilgeous-Alexander locked in, Holmgren growing by the game, and a full-throttle OKC crowd behind them, the Thunder are in prime position to close the series with a statement win and begin what could be a new NBA dynasty. A controlled, balanced effort and one final MVP-level performance should be enough to deliver a 106–98 victory and a well-earned championship on their home floor.