The Baltimore Orioles arrive at Yankee Stadium on June 21, 2025, with renewed confidence and a stronger sense of purpose than their overall record might suggest. Despite sitting at 33–42 entering this contest, the Orioles have surged recently with a 7–3 mark in their last ten games and an 11–6 record since interim manager Tony Mansolino took over in early June. This upswing reflects a team finding its identity after a tumultuous start to the season. Baltimore’s offense has been key to this turnaround, led by rising stars Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman, who have delivered clutch hits and provided steady production in the heart of the lineup. Complemented by Cedric Mullins’ speed and contact approach, the Orioles have built a lineup that doesn’t rely on power alone but rather excels in manufacturing runs and extending innings through patience and baserunning aggression. Starting pitcher Zach Eflin gets the nod against the Yankees, carrying a 4.81 ERA that masks his potential when he’s locked in. Eflin has struggled with consistency this season, but his track record includes impressive outings against AL East opponents and a prior scoreless appearance versus New York, which should provide some confidence heading into this high-stakes divisional matchup.

Baltimore’s challenge will be twofold: supporting Eflin early with run support and navigating a Yankees bullpen that has recently rediscovered its sharpness. Defensively, the Orioles have improved, limiting costly mistakes that plagued them earlier in the season, and they’ll need to be sharp to contain the likes of Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger in high-leverage moments. The Orioles’ bullpen has been hit-or-miss throughout the season, but with closer Craig Kimbrel and setup men showing flashes of dominance, they possess the pieces to hold leads if the starters can hand them over with an advantage. ATS-wise, Baltimore has underperformed this year, holding a sub-.450 record, yet their recent straight-up wins suggest they are closing the gap between potential and execution. The key for Baltimore will be maintaining discipline at the plate and executing fundamentally sound baseball—something they’ve excelled at in recent road games despite their 14–22 overall away record. Against an ace like Max Fried, the Orioles must make every base runner count and stay mentally tough through the middle innings, when the Yankees often shift momentum. If Eflin can navigate through Judge, Bellinger, and Stanton without early damage, and if the offense can scratch out a few timely runs, Baltimore could be in position to pull off an upset or at least stay well within the run line. The Orioles are underdogs on paper but have the talent, confidence, and recent performance to make this a highly competitive game against a division rival fighting to climb back into postseason relevance.