The Pittsburgh Pirates enter their June 19, 2025 matchup against the Detroit Tigers with a clear underdog label, but they do so with some quiet momentum and a growing sense of belief after a recent stretch of competitive baseball. While their overall record still places them well outside the postseason picture, the Pirates have been performing above expectations against the spread, going 7–3 ATS in their last ten games and winning three of four contests when labeled as favorites—a sign that they’re punching above their weight and responding well to pressure. Veteran Andrew McCutchen continues to provide leadership both on the field and in the clubhouse, helping stabilize a lineup that has often struggled to find consistency. Younger contributors like Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, and Jack Suwinski have started to string together better at-bats, and while offensive production remains inconsistent, there’s a growing sense that this team can generate scoring in bunches when it stays patient and capitalizes on opposing mistakes. Heading into Thursday’s game, the starting pitcher remains unconfirmed, which adds some uncertainty, though the Pirates will likely turn to one of their mid-rotation arms tasked with keeping the game close into the middle innings. With the total set at just 7 runs, and Detroit’s ace Tarik Skubal scheduled to pitch, Pittsburgh’s game plan will likely emphasize manufacturing early runs and avoiding a prolonged offensive drought, especially with Comerica Park’s pitcher-friendly dimensions working against their power.

Defensively, the Pirates have shown improvement, with the infield tightening up and the bullpen showing flashes of reliability when not overworked. Their recent ATS surge is partially owed to late-inning toughness and cleaner execution in high-leverage moments, a promising development for a team that struggled to close out winnable games earlier in the year. On the betting board, Pittsburgh enters as a substantial underdog, priced around +259 on the moneyline, which may appeal to sharp bettors seeking longshot value—particularly if they believe the Pirates can get to Skubal early and put pressure on Detroit’s bullpen. However, the more realistic play for many is Pittsburgh on the run line at +1.5, where they’ve proven to be quite efficient over the last couple of weeks, keeping games within reach even when losing outright. For Pittsburgh to make this game competitive, they’ll need their starter to avoid early damage, their bats to jump on first-pitch fastballs, and their bullpen to keep Detroit off the scoreboard in the sixth through ninth innings. If they can accomplish that, the Pirates could threaten to pull off a meaningful road upset or, at the very least, deliver another run line cover for their backers. It won’t be easy against one of the best home teams in the league, but if Pittsburgh’s recent confidence and discipline carry into Comerica Park, they’ll give themselves a legitimate chance to end the series on a high note and continue building something positive heading into the second half of the season.