The Atlanta Braves come into Thursday’s home matchup against the red-hot New York Mets searching for stability and a spark as they try to pull out of a frustrating and inconsistent first half of the 2025 season. With a 33–39 record and a roster full of talent that hasn’t quite clicked the way it has in previous years, the Braves will once again turn to Spencer Strider to lead the charge on the mound. Strider, returning from injury, showed flashes of brilliance in his June 14 start, punching out 13 batters in six scoreless innings, reminding fans and the league why he was once considered one of the most dominant strikeout arms in baseball. However, even with that outing, his season ERA still sits north of 4.30, and his velocity hasn’t consistently returned to pre-injury levels, leaving questions about how deep he can pitch into games and how effectively he can suppress a disciplined Mets lineup that grinds out long at-bats. The Braves’ offensive potential remains significant despite their record, with Matt Olson currently riding a nine-game hitting streak and Ronald Acuña Jr. providing multi-dimensional impact in the heart of the order. They’ve struggled, however, with timely hitting, and inconsistent contributions from Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, and others have led to too many squandered scoring opportunities.

Atlanta’s bullpen has been a mixed bag—Raisel Iglesias has remained dependable in the closer role, but setup innings have seen instability, often forcing Brian Snitker to piece together the late frames with short leashes and matchups. From a betting standpoint, the Braves have remained viable at home with a 6–4 ATS record in their last 10 games as favorites, and they open this contest as –126 moneyline favorites, with a +157 payout on the –1.5 run line. The total sits at 8.5, and with recent matchups between these two teams trending toward the Under, the game flow will likely hinge on whether Strider can hold the Mets in check through the first five innings and whether the Braves’ bats can finally deliver with runners in scoring position. Defensively, Atlanta has remained above average, but even minor miscues have turned into game-changers during this rough stretch, a trend they must reverse if they want to slow down a Mets team that thrives on capitalizing on mistakes. The key for Atlanta will be to strike early—both with Strider setting the tone and the offense jumping on what has been a shaky Mets rotation beyond the injured Kodai Senga—and to force New York into an uphill battle, which has been rare during the Mets’ recent surge. With division standings tightening and fan expectations still sky-high, Thursday’s game presents the Braves with both a challenge and an opportunity to reassert themselves in the NL East conversation. If their stars show up, Strider pitches deep, and the offense delivers when it matters, Atlanta can deliver a signature win that could help turn their season’s trajectory in the right direction.