The Tampa Bay Rays return to Steinbrenner Field on Thursday to face the Baltimore Orioles, looking to maintain their edge at home behind their traditionally elite pitching staff and a lineup that continues to evolve amid roster reshuffles and injury recoveries. Entering with a 36–35 ATS record overall but only a 7–10 mark against the run line at home, the Rays have been much more efficient straight-up than in covering big spreads, often winning low-scoring games by narrow margins thanks to elite bullpen support and top-tier defensive positioning. Tampa Bay is expected to give the ball to either Drew Rasmussen or Shane Baz, depending on how the rotation sets, and both pitchers offer upside that fits their defensive-first blueprint. Rasmussen has shown increased velocity and sharper command since returning from injury, while Baz brings a live arm with strikeout potential but still battles control issues on occasion. Regardless of who starts, manager Kevin Cash is known for quick hooks and matchup-based pitching decisions, which means the bullpen—anchored by Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, and Colin Poche—will play a decisive role in the middle-to-late innings. That formula has helped the Rays hit the Under in 20 of their last 30 home games, and the total of 8.5 for Thursday’s matchup suggests another pitching-driven affair.

On the offensive side, the Rays haven’t put up gaudy numbers, but they’re grinding out enough run production to stay competitive in most contests. Junior Caminero and Yandy Díaz offer disciplined plate appearances, while Brandon Lowe and Isaac Paredes provide the occasional power stroke needed to break open tight games. Though Tampa Bay doesn’t boast a high team batting average, their walk rate and situational hitting keep them alive late into games, especially when they’re able to stretch opposing bullpens. Against a Baltimore team that has struggled to close out games on the road and ranks near the bottom in late-inning ERA, Tampa Bay’s patient approach could pay off with rallies in the sixth through eighth innings. Defensively, the Rays remain among the league’s sharpest units, consistently converting balls in play into outs and avoiding costly errors that have plagued many of their AL East counterparts. Their edge comes not from out-slugging opponents but from executing in high-leverage situations, and Thursday’s game presents another opportunity to win by doing the little things right—limiting walks, stealing an extra base, and applying pressure in key counts. While bettors may hesitate on the –1.5 run line given the Rays’ home trends, the moneyline at –148 offers safer value given Tampa’s knack for closing out tight games. If Rasmussen or Baz can deliver five strong innings and the bullpen does its job, Tampa Bay has every tool to edge Baltimore in another low-scoring contest that rewards clean execution and bullpen depth. A win here keeps the Rays in the Wild Card hunt and sets the tone for a critical stretch of division-heavy matchups that could define their midseason direction.