Sunday’s series finale between the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Mets at Citi Field promises to be a closely contested rubber match between two postseason-caliber clubs with very different narratives in 2025. The Mets, at 45–24, have been one of the most dominant teams in baseball, particularly at home where they’ve compiled a stellar 27–8 record, thanks to a combination of elite pitching, timely hitting, and a strong defensive foundation. Their offense has been powered by Pete Alonso, who leads the team with 11 home runs and 43 RBIs, while Francisco Lindor continues to be the heart and soul of the lineup with a .290 average, strong baserunning, and clutch hitting in key moments. On the mound, New York is expected to start right-hander Griffin Canning, who has carved out a steady role in the rotation with an ability to limit hard contact and work efficiently through opposing lineups. With the Mets trending toward low-scoring, tightly managed games—they’ve hit the UNDER in 14 of their last 20 matchups—Canning’s control and the bullpen’s reliability will be critical against a Rays team that thrives on pressuring pitchers. Tampa Bay enters the game at 36–32, a respectable mark in a brutally competitive AL East, and though their recent record against the spread (4–11 in their last 15) is poor, they remain dangerous thanks to a deep, athletic roster.

The offense is anchored by Junior Caminero and Randy Arozarena, who have combined for consistent run production with power and speed, and they will be tasked with cracking a Mets pitching staff that rarely gives up big innings. The Rays turn to Shane Baz, who brings elite stuff and the ability to pile up strikeouts, but has at times struggled with pitch efficiency and high pitch counts. His ability to keep Alonso and Lindor in check while managing traffic on the bases will likely determine how far into the game he can go. Tampa’s bullpen remains one of its strongest assets, capable of bridging high-leverage innings with multiple looks and late-game execution, and they’ll need to be ready in a game that could swing on just a few pitches. Both teams are among the league leaders in defensive metrics, minimizing errors and turning double plays consistently, meaning extra-base hits and timely situational hitting may separate the winner. The Mets’ recent struggles against the spread reflect close contests rather than underperformance, while the Rays’ recent struggles suggest missed opportunities and bullpen leaks late. Given the pitching matchup and both teams’ strength in tight contests, expect a low-scoring game with playoff-level energy, where one swing from a star like Alonso or Arozarena could tilt the outcome. With the series tied, the edge may go to the Mets on home-field advantage and bullpen depth, but Tampa Bay’s scrappy, resilient style makes them a threat to steal a series-deciding game if they can capitalize early and force New York into chasing runs. Either way, this rubber match sets up as one of the day’s most compelling interleague battles.