Sunday’s matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field serves as the conclusion to a critical National League Central series and pits two teams on opposite ends of the divisional spectrum. The Cubs, holding a 42–28 record and leading the division, have found their groove in June behind excellent pitching and timely offense, while the Pirates, at 29–42, continue to struggle for consistency and have particularly faltered on the road, entering the game with a dismal 9–23 away record. Chicago has been nearly unbeatable at Wrigley, boasting a 20–11 home record and dominating Pittsburgh over the past decade, including a 52–29 mark at home against the Bucs since 2015, outscoring them by nearly 150 runs. Sunday’s starter for the Cubs is Jameson Taillon, who has been red-hot over his last four starts with a 1.69 ERA and seems to be rounding into peak form at just the right time. Taillon’s familiarity with Pittsburgh, his former team, adds an intriguing layer to the narrative and could give him an extra edge in setting the tone early. Behind him, the Cubs’ bullpen has been lights out, with a collective 0.90 ERA over the last 23 games and Drew Pomeranz still not having allowed a single earned run in 2025, which makes late-inning leads nearly untouchable.

On the offensive side, Ian Happ is swinging a hot bat with a .281/.361/.719 slash line over his last eight games, while Seiya Suzuki and rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong have added a mix of power and speed that has made the Cubs’ lineup multidimensional and difficult to pitch to. Defensively, the Cubs have been dependable, frequently bailing out pitchers with crisp infield play and strong outfield arms. The Pirates counter with Mitch Keller, who has the raw stuff and experience to keep the game close but has been inconsistent against high-quality lineups, and his ability to avoid big innings will be the key to keeping Pittsburgh competitive. The Bucs’ offense, led by Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds, has flashed potential, but their inability to string together sustained rallies and their bullpen’s struggles have cost them numerous winnable games. Pittsburgh’s defense has also contributed to their troubles, with routine miscues often leading to extended innings and back-breaking runs. With the total going UNDER frequently in Cubs home games and both starting pitchers capable of navigating the early innings, this game may turn on timely execution and whichever team makes fewer mistakes. The Cubs have the clear advantage in recent form, bullpen depth, and situational hitting, and they’ve consistently taken care of business against the Pirates at Wrigley. For Chicago, this game offers a chance to pad their division lead and continue building momentum heading into the heart of the summer, while for Pittsburgh, it’s about salvaging something positive from a tough road trip and perhaps turning the page on a difficult first half of the season. Expect a focused, professional effort from the Cubs and a hungry, but outmatched, Pirates squad trying to avoid being swept in one of the league’s toughest road environments.