The June 12, 2025 matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field spotlights two NL Central teams headed in opposite directions, with the Cubs eyeing a postseason push and the Pirates continuing to search for consistency and development in a difficult season. The Cubs enter this contest with a strong 41–26 record, leading the division and riding a stretch of solid play at home, where they’ve gone 20–11. They’ve been anchored by a resurgent pitching staff, especially with Jameson Taillon’s excellent recent form—posting a 1.69 ERA over his last four starts—and a bullpen that’s been one of the best in baseball over the past three weeks, holding opponents to a microscopic 0.80 ERA over their last 22 games. On offense, Chicago is led by a red-hot Seiya Suzuki, who has been crushing the ball with multiple home runs in recent outings, and Kyle Tucker, who brings power and run production from the middle of the lineup. Ian Happ and Dansby Swanson have added key contributions in clutch moments, giving the Cubs a deep and balanced order capable of stringing together big innings or grinding out runs. Chicago’s 28–29 record against the spread doesn’t fully reflect how well they’ve performed at Wrigley, where they are 13–8 ATS and have repeatedly shown an ability to cover large spreads against sub-.500 teams. Defensively, the Cubs have been sharp, with reliable infield work and excellent corner outfield play helping support their surging pitching staff. The Pirates, meanwhile, arrive at Wrigley with a 27–41 record, sitting last in the division and struggling to find footing, particularly on the road, where they are just 9–22.

Their issues are wide-ranging—scoring droughts, bullpen instability, and inconsistent defensive play—but there have been some bright spots. Paul Skenes has quickly become a key building block for the future, posting a 2.39 ERA and 39 strikeouts over 37.2 innings, offering a glimpse of the ace potential the Pirates have long awaited. Offensively, Oneil Cruz leads the team with eight home runs and 12 stolen bases, providing rare athleticism and impact in the lineup, while franchise icon Andrew McCutchen recently reached a major milestone with a three-run homer that moved him to third on the team’s all-time home run list. But despite these moments, the Pirates have struggled to sustain momentum and rank near the bottom in most offensive and defensive categories. Their 18–27 ATS record—just 8–17 on the road—shows how often they’ve failed to keep games close against strong teams like the Cubs, and unless they get an exceptional pitching performance and early run support, it’s likely they’ll again struggle to stay within striking distance. With the Cubs firing on all cylinders and playing with the poise of a postseason contender, this matchup heavily favors Chicago, especially if their top arms continue to dominate and their offense capitalizes on early opportunities against a shaky Pittsburgh staff. For the Pirates, a win would require near-flawless execution—something they’ve shown only in brief flashes this season.