Updated: 2025-06-09T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Pittsburgh Pirates enter the final game of their home series against the Miami Marlins looking to extend their recent dominance over their National League counterparts and capitalize on a stretch of strong play that has seen them go 6–4 in their last 10 games. Although their overall record sits at 28–38 and just 15–20 against the spread at PNC Park, the Pirates have consistently found ways to frustrate the Marlins at home, winning four straight in Pittsburgh and seven of their last ten head-to-head meetings. The heart of the Pirates’ offensive production lies with the dangerous tandem of Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds, both of whom possess the tools to impact the game on both sides of the ball. Cruz, with his towering frame and explosive bat speed, gives the lineup a feared presence capable of launching long balls and stretching singles into extra bases, while Reynolds continues to anchor the outfield and provide a steady offensive presence with a blend of contact and power. Complementing them are contributions from supporting players like Ke’Bryan Hayes and Jack Suwinski, who provide defensive excellence and timely hitting that helps turn the lineup over and put pressure on opposing pitchers. On the mound, the Pirates have quietly been one of the more efficient teams of late, posting a 2.86 ERA over their last 10 games—a testament to both their starting pitching and the bullpen’s ability to protect leads. The starting rotation, though not filled with household names, has been reliable and competitive, with pitchers consistently giving manager Derek Shelton five or six solid innings to keep the team in games. The bullpen, led by closer David Bednar, has been one of the Pirates’ biggest strengths, routinely locking down tight contests and minimizing late-inning collapses that plagued the team in prior seasons. This combination of timely hitting and pitching depth has allowed the Pirates to outperform expectations in certain stretches and stay competitive against more talented lineups. As they face a Marlins team welcoming back a potentially rusty Eury Pérez from injury, Pittsburgh will look to stay patient at the plate, working deep counts and testing his stamina early. Their familiarity with PNC Park’s dimensions and field conditions also provides a subtle advantage, as hitters know how to exploit the spacious gaps and pitchers understand how to induce soft contact on fly balls. The Pirates also benefit from a low-pressure environment as underdogs in this matchup, often using that status to play relaxed, aggressive baseball that throws opponents off balance. If they can continue to execute with runners in scoring position and keep Miami’s top hitters quiet, they have a strong chance to close the series with another home win and build momentum before heading back on the road. With fan support behind them and confidence from recent success against this opponent, Pittsburgh will look to pair solid fundamentals with a bit of home-field magic to secure the series and inch closer to .500, keeping alive any hopes of a summer turnaround.

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