Sunday’s series finale between the Kansas City Royals and Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field is set up to be a classic low-scoring, pitching-driven contest between two teams trending toward the middle of the standings but playing well against the spread in recent weeks, with Kansas City entering at 34–29 ATS and Chicago right behind at 36–27. The Royals are expected to start Kris Bubic, a left-hander who has returned to form in 2025 with a 2.89 ERA and improved strikeout-to-walk numbers, thriving by attacking the zone early and limiting hard contact with a heavy changeup–curveball combo that works particularly well against right-handed-heavy lineups like Chicago’s. The White Sox counter with Davis Martin, a 3.52 ERA righty who relies on fastball command and a fading changeup to induce weak contact and pitch into the sixth inning when efficient, and both starters are backed by bullpens that have improved significantly since April and now rank among the more dependable late-inning units in the American League. Offensively, the Royals lean on Bobby Witt Jr.’s mix of power and speed, Maikel Garcia’s recent hot streak at the plate, and the situational production of Vinnie Pasquantino, who remains one of the club’s most reliable bats in tight moments, while the White Sox rely more on contact hitters like Andrew Benintendi and Chase Meidroth to generate rallies and allow middle-of-the-order bat Miguel Vargas to do damage in leverage situations.

Neither team has shown much power recently, and with both squads hitting the under in more than half of their games this season—Kansas City with 38 unders in their last 62 games and Chicago logging 32 first-five-innings unders in their last 54—this contest strongly leans toward another under-friendly outcome with the game total hovering around 9 runs. Defensively, both teams are clean but unspectacular, and the outcome will likely hinge on how well the starters handle early innings, whether either offense can break through with runners in scoring position, and which bullpen executes more cleanly in the seventh through ninth innings. Kansas City’s edge comes from more consistent late-game run prevention, slightly better lineup depth, and greater control from their starter, but the White Sox have been exceptional ATS at home as underdogs, covering in 8 of their last 10 such games and showing they can grind out narrow wins against better rosters. With both teams lacking high-scoring upside and Sunday’s pitching matchup favoring pace, command, and bullpen leverage, expect a one-run margin with a 3–2 or 4–3 final, dictated by whichever club converts its few scoring chances and avoids a defensive lapse late. Kansas City’s path to a win depends on Bubic continuing his strong form and their offense capitalizing early, while Chicago’s upset chance rests on Martin going six strong and their bullpen maintaining zeroes in a tight frame, making this game a perfect setting for bettors favoring the under and run-line value on either side depending on early momentum.