Sunday’s finale between the Chicago Cubs and Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park wraps up a closely fought series between two evenly matched clubs that have relied heavily on their pitching to dictate tempo and limit damage. The first two games saw starters Ben Brown and Tarik Skubal dominate with minimal offense behind them, and the third installment is set to follow the same low-scoring pattern. With the betting total hovering around 8 runs and both bullpens rested, the conditions are ripe for another pitcher’s duel. The Cubs will send promising rookie Cade Horton to the mound, who has impressed early in his big-league tenure with a 3–0 record, a 4.21 ERA, and a developing four-pitch mix that includes a tight slider and riding fastball. Horton has shown flashes of frontline potential but still battles occasional control lapses and pitch efficiency, often needing over 90 pitches to get through five innings. The Tigers will counter with veteran Jack Flaherty, whose 4–6 record belies his strong underlying metrics. With a 3.72 ERA and a history of success in high-leverage matchups, Flaherty’s curveball and command of the outer edges have helped him miss barrels and limit home runs at a pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. Offensively, neither team has consistently broken out at the plate, which has contributed to a trend of unders and run-line covers in narrow margins.

The Cubs’ offense is built around contact and patience—Nico Hoerner anchors the top of the lineup with low strikeout rates and high OBP, while Pete Crow-Armstrong adds speed and extra-base ability, and Seiya Suzuki continues to provide much-needed power in the middle of the order. Still, the Cubs have struggled in key RBI situations, leaving runners on base and often needing solo home runs or errors to plate runs. Detroit counters with a more aggressive approach, driven by Spencer Torkelson’s 14 home runs and improving plate discipline, Riley Greene’s left-handed bat in the two-hole, and Javier Báez’s ability to extend innings and provide clutch base hits. While both teams hover around league average in overall OPS, neither has posted a significant advantage in slugging or extra-base hit rate this month, reinforcing the likelihood that Sunday’s outcome hinges on execution and bullpen performance. The Tigers’ bullpen, led by Tyler Holton, Jason Foley, and Tommy Kahnle, has been superb—each holding ERAs under 2.00 and combining for one of the league’s best WHIPs among late-inning relief units. The Cubs’ bullpen has held up reasonably well but has been overworked and lacks the same depth and dominant stuff. From an ATS perspective, both teams have been profitable—Chicago at 33–29 and Detroit at 35–29 on the season—but the edge in home-field control, bullpen reliability, and veteran starting experience tilts in Detroit’s favor. Expect a tight, methodical game where the winner is likely determined by a key hit in the sixth or seventh inning and which team makes fewer mistakes defensively. With both lineups limited in power and both starters likely to go five to six innings, this shapes up to be another 3–2 or 4–3 result with strong value on the under and Detroit to cover as slight home favorites.